Do the math wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
RE: Trews is Wall Street’s Head Muppet 1/2/2019 4:25PM - in reply to mellon
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mellon,
You have never explained why you think “this time is different.” By the way AAPL just showed that is probably incorrect thinking.
Igy
Exactly. You mentioned no news.
Whatever buddy....
seattle prattle wrote:
Oh, come on! Is it any news that China has declared war on the iPhone lately? It shouldn't be.
It's in the common press:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/chinese-firms-ask-workers-to-shun-iphones-buy-huawei-devices/articleshow/67240507.cmsChinese firms ask workers to shun iPhones, employees getting subsidies to buy Chinese made cell phones, and attempts by Chinese courts to ban the import of the phones outright. This is last week's news.
Bingo. Anyone who thinks this is “news” has not been paying attention. Apple just confirmed what we already knew.
Financial Advisor wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Oh, come on! Is it any news that China has declared war on the iPhone lately? It shouldn't be.
It's in the common press:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/chinese-firms-ask-workers-to-shun-iphones-buy-huawei-devices/articleshow/67240507.cmsChinese firms ask workers to shun iPhones, employees getting subsidies to buy Chinese made cell phones, and attempts by Chinese courts to ban the import of the phones outright. This is last week's news.
Bingo. Anyone who thinks this is “news” has not been paying attention. Apple just confirmed what we already knew.
From the guy buying hand over fist at $232 a share....
agip wrote:
tomorrow will be interesting after this Apple warning. Apple has never had a high valuation - its PE is 13ish, so it may not fall much.
but the more interesting tell will be to see if the market can climb a wall of worry - to see if declines like apple's china sales have been priced into the market, inocculating it against further negative surprises.
I'm not predicting anything other than an if/then sort of statement: if the market as a whole shrugs off the apple warning, then many more will feel safe to jump back in.
If the market falls just a percent or less, then there's no signal, just noise.
If the market has a seriously bad day tomorrow, that's probably quite bearish - it suggests there is still too much optimism in stock prices despite the quite low valuations. Compared to 25 year averages anyway.
Tim Cook already said they'll be buying more shares back in light of this and they easily have enough cash to do it. Futures are pretty red right now but I'm expecting them to rally up and we'll probably end green tomorrow. No one cares about China or Europe slowing down. China's manufacturing PMI indicated it's in a contraction and that didn't seem to stop the past couple of days from ending green anyways and since Apple weighs so heavily on the market all they have to do is pump a couple billion into AAPL shares and then watch as the retail dip buyers breath a sigh of relief and do the PPTing for them.
What they actually fear is another rate increase. Why? I have no clue but apparently a .25% increase is just the end of the world. Look at futures for Fed funds right now. They're pricing in 0 rate hikes for 2019 lol. I read a WSJ article that indicated investor sentiment was that the economy wasn't as great as everyone thinks it is so the Fed will have no choice but to halt rates!!
That's your bull thesis right there : the economy actually sucks and so the Fed can't raise rates. We're saved!
Of course, that means investors can't pump up stock prices anymore. If they do, the total economy will look like it's doing pretty good!
Exactly. My bet: active traders positioning themselves by selling early (after hours and over the last few weeks) and expect to buy back after an initial drop at the open and rising throughout the day. Selling for the last few weeks on the rumors and now that the news is out, smart money will pick up the cheap shares. The news is now out, damage down, time to load up on a very solid company with diverse revenue streams and good long term prospects at a very affordable PE.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
If you just look at a one year S&P 500 chart it does not look good. Furthermore, if you look at the stocks that took this market up, they are struggling. There is simply nothing that can replace them. Not supportive of valuations. Now EPS has peaked this cycle. Fed in a box. Global economy in decline. Looming Washington soap opera. Market peaked September, Bear Market has started. Question remains how far we go down. If we break 2,346 convincingly the next stop is 2,100 or the 2015-11/6/2016 shelf. From there we will see.
Igy
EPS *growth* has peaked in this cycle, but not EPS.
What stocks will replace FAANG? Who knows? That's the nature of the stock market. And they may not even need to be replaced - they still have earnings growing massively, last time I checked.
Global economy is not in decline - it is growing, albeit slower.
Charts don't look good until they do look good.
I could give you a dozen stats that show buying when EPS is growing and PE ratios are falling and stocks are down 15% is as sure a bet as there is in the stock market.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
tomorrow will be interesting after this Apple warning. Apple has never had a high valuation - its PE is 13ish, so it may not fall much.
but the more interesting tell will be to see if the market can climb a wall of worry - to see if declines like apple's china sales have been priced into the market, inocculating it against further negative surprises.
I'm not predicting anything other than an if/then sort of statement: if the market as a whole shrugs off the apple warning, then many more will feel safe to jump back in.
If the market falls just a percent or less, then there's no signal, just noise.
If the market has a seriously bad day tomorrow, that's probably quite bearish - it suggests there is still too much optimism in stock prices despite the quite low valuations. Compared to 25 year averages anyway.
Tim Cook already said they'll be buying more shares back in light of this and they easily have enough cash to do it. Futures are pretty red right now but I'm expecting them to rally up and we'll probably end green tomorrow. No one cares about China or Europe slowing down. China's manufacturing PMI indicated it's in a contraction and that didn't seem to stop the past couple of days from ending green anyways and since Apple weighs so heavily on the market all they have to do is pump a couple billion into AAPL shares and then watch as the retail dip buyers breath a sigh of relief and do the PPTing for them.
What they actually fear is another rate increase. Why? I have no clue but apparently a .25% increase is just the end of the world. Look at futures for Fed funds right now. They're pricing in 0 rate hikes for 2019 lol. I read a WSJ article that indicated investor sentiment was that the economy wasn't as great as everyone thinks it is so the Fed will have no choice but to halt rates!!
That's your bull thesis right there : the economy actually sucks and so the Fed can't raise rates. We're saved!
Of course, that means investors can't pump up stock prices anymore. If they do, the total economy will look like it's doing pretty good!
Mostly seems a bunch of gibberish to me. The market is broken, so trading around the margins will continue to be a losing trade.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
tomorrow will be interesting after this Apple warning. Apple has never had a high valuation - its PE is 13ish, so it may not fall much.
but the more interesting tell will be to see if the market can climb a wall of worry - to see if declines like apple's china sales have been priced into the market, inocculating it against further negative surprises.
I'm not predicting anything other than an if/then sort of statement: if the market as a whole shrugs off the apple warning, then many more will feel safe to jump back in.
If the market falls just a percent or less, then there's no signal, just noise.
If the market has a seriously bad day tomorrow, that's probably quite bearish - it suggests there is still too much optimism in stock prices despite the quite low valuations. Compared to 25 year averages anyway.
Tim Cook already said they'll be buying more shares back in light of this and they easily have enough cash to do it. Futures are pretty red right now but I'm expecting them to rally up and we'll probably end green tomorrow. No one cares about China or Europe slowing down. China's manufacturing PMI indicated it's in a contraction and that didn't seem to stop the past couple of days from ending green anyways and since Apple weighs so heavily on the market all they have to do is pump a couple billion into AAPL shares and then watch as the retail dip buyers breath a sigh of relief and do the PPTing for them.
What they actually fear is another rate increase. Why? I have no clue but apparently a .25% increase is just the end of the world. Look at futures for Fed funds right now. They're pricing in 0 rate hikes for 2019 lol. I read a WSJ article that indicated investor sentiment was that the economy wasn't as great as everyone thinks it is so the Fed will have no choice but to halt rates!!
That's your bull thesis right there : the economy actually sucks and so the Fed can't raise rates. We're saved!
Of course, that means investors can't pump up stock prices anymore. If they do, the total economy will look like it's doing pretty good!
it's too hard picking apart what you wrote sarcastically vs. sincerely, but it's pretty clear that few think there will be a Fed rate hike next year. In fact, futures are almost even on rate hike/rate drop next year. So that's pretty much a non-issue.
What people fear is Trump and his trade war and his crazy, unstable, unpredictable politics.
China and rest of asia are opening barely down.
this is sounding like an apple specific issue.
I wouldn't be surprised if beyond apple and its suppliers, some chips and the indices dominated by apple....this isn't a big deal.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Financial Advisor wrote:
Bingo. Anyone who thinks this is “news” has not been paying attention. Apple just confirmed what we already knew.
From the guy buying hand over fist at $232 a share....
From the guy claiming to be a financial advisor while up to his neck in debt.
(I paid $186.)
agip,
EPS *growth* has peaked in this cycle, but not EPS.
Response: As usual analyst are over optimistic, rising labor cost, and cost of capital is already affecting margins. I would expect revisions like AAPL to continue.
What stocks will replace FAANG? Who knows? That's the nature of the stock market. And they may not even need to be replaced - they still have earnings growing massively, last time I checked.
Response: Impossible for the market caps of FAANG to be replaced this cycle. AAPL just said their earnings will be below same quarter a year ago. Facebook the same and AMZN and NFLX have already slowed.
Global economy is not in decline - it is growing, albeit slower.
Response: OK, but it is trending down.
Charts don't look good until they do look good.
Response: Well the charts don’t look good and they will inevitably get worse. It is cyclical.
I could give you a dozen stats that show buying when EPS is growing and PE ratios are falling and stocks are down 15% is as sure a bet as there is in the stock market.
Response: OK, but it will go much lower than -15% and valuations will mean invert.
Igy
Financial Advisor wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
From the guy buying hand over fist at $232 a share....
From the guy claiming to be a financial advisor while up to his neck in debt.
(I paid $186.)
I manage 40 times more money than you. And my networth is ten times higher.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Financial Advisor wrote:
From the guy claiming to be a financial advisor while up to his neck in debt.
(I paid $186.)
I manage 40 times more money than you. And my networth is ten times higher.
Of course you have nothing to substantiate that. And if it were true, you wouldn’t be borrowing money at your age.
China, HK, SK, Australia up pretty well.
that's great news.
OK, let’s deal with the facts. You are substantially underwater on AAPL. I have been in the business for over 22 years. My clients have deposited more money in their accounts the past six months than you said you manage. Debt is a financial tool as much as investment. My home loan debt is less than 1/10 the value of my house at 2.875% and tax deductible. My car loan balance is 1/2 the cost of my car and at an equally low 2.875%. My investments returned 7.88% last year. I save one half my income each year. Hope you will do this well some day.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK, let’s deal with the facts.
That would be a welcomed change for you.
Bocephus wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK, let’s deal with the facts.
That would be a welcomed change for you.
That is false since I am one of the few dealing in facts. You and others prefer myths and stock hawking hokum. Just look at what has been said the past couple of hours. The world’s largest company by market cap has announced a cut to their earnings. And just look at all the excuses on why this doesn’t matter. Delusional.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Bocephus wrote:
That would be a welcomed change for you.
That is false since I am one of the few dealing in facts. You and others prefer myths and stock hawking hokum. Just look at what has been said the past couple of hours. The world’s largest company by market cap has announced a cut to their earnings. And just look at all the excuses on why this doesn’t matter. Delusional.
Facts? As you said, “Just look at what has been said the past couple of hours.” You were called out on multiple lies by agip. Unfortunately this is the norm for you. You are Trump Lite.
Huh?
Nice non-denial.