Down goes the Dow

DJIA 1 Jan 2014 16,577

15 May 2014 16,447

-0.78% YTD (yes, ignoring dividends)

Boy, was last year ever a great ride.

Flagpole wrote:

I would be cool with a 4,000 (or more) drop too. Reasons?:

1) The market ALWAYS comes back...ALWAYS.

...

Flagpole,

"Always" and "never" are dangerous words.

One question for you:

What is the minimum scenario that would have to happen to cause you to ever change your mind, and say "I was wrong" on this?

Who called you a Nazi?

yougottabekiddingme wrote:

Flagpole,

"Always" and "never" are dangerous words.

One question for you:

What is the minimum scenario that would have to happen to cause you to ever change your mind, and say "I was wrong" on this?

1) Is "always" ALWAYS a dangerous word? Food for though with that one eh!

2) Well, for me to be wrong, the market would NEVER come back. That has NEVER been the case. The crash of 2008 should prove that to many of you...that was supposedly the worst since the Great Depression, and it was no big deal to me over the long haul. Took me three years (not including contributions) to get my stuff back to where it was in October 2007, and that was the WORST since the 1930s. And, now that we're on the other side of it and I bought stocks all the way down to Dow 6,400, it sure wasn't a bad thing. If the market had just had a slow growth period instead of the big drop and big recovery, I would perhaps even be less off than I am now. The general public just gets freaked out by big swings. It's just not necessary to.

3) Investors should ONLY look at their ability to be in the stock market and their closeness to retirement when deciding whether to invest or not. To be an investor, you REALLY need to have no debt other than a reasonable mortgage and SOMETIMES a huge student loan (if you're a doc or lawyer or some other thing that will make you a lot of money so you can invest and pay that off at the same time). You need to be diversified so that if one sector tanks for a long time, you don't take a huge hit, and you need to be aggressive with your investments up until 10 years before retirement at which time you begin to be a LITTLE more conservative. IF you want to remain being aggressive with your investments within 10 years of retirement and in retirement (I may do this), then make sure to have 3 YEARS of expenses saved in a liquid vehicle so you can whether a bad market drop.

Flagpole, why do you regularly repeat this mantra?

I will repeat that it may be a reasonable strategy, given a whole bunch of limitations and qualifications.

DJIA not really moving anywhere today, so far. Actually, given last year's run-up, the strength being shown by the DJIA is somewhat surprising, especially given a crappy Q1 and tech crap skewing the numbers.

Even though there hasn't been any YTD "gain", the market seems pretty strong to me, if I ignore the daily swings. The volatility bothers me, but even that hasn't been TOO bad, I think. Anybody follow volatility indexes?

"The market ALWAYS comes back...ALWAYS". Ummm...ever heard of Nikkei? http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NIKKEI225 1989-12-29 38915.87; 2014-05-16 14096.59

la gente está muy loca wrote:

"The market ALWAYS comes back...ALWAYS". Ummm...ever heard of Nikkei?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NIKKEI225

1989-12-29 38915.87; 2014-05-16 14096.59

Looks like a buy signal.

Yes, but in several hundred years it will have gained back all of its losses, and then some...it WILL come back, I swear it.

By "the market", I mean a market conveniently chosen and windowed to support my prejudice, of course.

la gente está muy loca wrote:

"The market ALWAYS comes back...ALWAYS". Ummm...ever heard of Nikkei?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NIKKEI225

1989-12-29 38915.87; 2014-05-16 14096.59

well ok...but is it fair to say that Japan and US tech stocks are the only major markets to have not achieved new highs over the past few years?

So yes it is true that Japan is far below where it was in 1990...picking one example out of hundreds tells you just that:

one or two out of a hundred 'markets' will fail in a major way.

So we diversify and buy bonds, not just stocks.

agip.

That is his inevitable response to my posting news items critical of Israel as criticisms of Israel are verboten in the mainstream media.

Such as:

"The Nakba, which refers to the ethnic cleansing of over 50% of the Palestinian population, was a defining moment of the long and ongoing history of forced displacement and separation of the Palestinian people that began with the events leading up to the creation of the State of Israel on May 15, 1948.

Today, 66 years after this date, the fragmentation of the Palestinian people both inside and outside of historic Palestine remains as concrete as ever.

This infographic represents each population group falling under de-facto Israeli sovereignty today. It deconstructs how different groups of Israelis and Palestinians experience segregation based on an Israeli-controlled system of colored ID cards. The graphic is based on data from UN agencies, and from Israeli and Palestinian government sources and NGOs.

The issue of prolonged Israeli sovereignty over Palestinians is also pertinent in light of growing talk among prominent Israeli politicians such as Naftali Bennet of permanently and unilaterally annexing large portions of the occupied Palestinian territory, and by Avigdor Lieberman of de-nationalising some Palestinian citizens of Israel. A recent Associated Press article discusses how a shifting demographic balance and continuing de-facto Israeli control over the Palestinian population weigh heavy in Israel’s calculations.

"So we diversify and buy bonds, not just stocks". Agip, doesn't always work. From December 1963-December 1981; inflation adjusted real total returns: Annualized S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested) .48%. Annualized 10 Year Treasury Return -.91%. http://dqydj.net/ Also re , "well ok...but is it fair to say that Japan and US tech stocks are the only major markets to have not achieved new highs over the past few years"? CAC40, FTSE, and EuroSTOXX50 are below all time highs of 1999 and 2000.

la gente está muy loca wrote:

"So we diversify and buy bonds, not just stocks". Agip, doesn't always work. From December 1963-December 1981; inflation adjusted real total returns: Annualized S&P 500 Return (Dividends Reinvested) .48%. Annualized 10 Year Treasury Return -.91%.

http://dqydj.net/

Also re , "well ok...but is it fair to say that Japan and US tech stocks are the only major markets to have not achieved new highs over the past few years"? CAC40, FTSE, and EuroSTOXX50 are below all time highs of 1999 and 2000.

good stuff gente.

But important to note that the balanced portfolio would have risen in dollars, just not in value after inflation. I'm not arguing with you - just clarifying.

I did not know that European stocks haven't passed the 2000 peaks yet - wild.

So the US, emerging markets, presumably canada and Australia...these are the markets that have established new highs. Japan, europe...haven't. Is there something special about anglophone stock markets?

I suppose the best thing buy and hold/buy and add can say is that using a stock bubble as a starting point is not fair - that in the real work portfolios are built at different prices and different times. So money can be made even in markets that have yet to reach yr 2000 levels.

er...in the real WORLD, portfolios are built at different prices and different times.

zooooooo......who wants post #3000?

Klondike5 wrote:

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.

Maybe 5%

What's the bottom?

I am betting sub 13,000

Organizations such as the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), established in 1913, were designed to fight against this scourge of anti-Semitism in particular, and racism in general. However, sadly, the ADL has long since strayed from its original core mission "to stop the defamation of the Jewish people and to secure justice and fair treatment to all."

In recent decades, the ADL has racked up a checkered history of spying on domestic peace and justice organizations, fanning the flames of Islamophobia, and ironically defaming many who speak out against Israel's human rights abuses of Palestinians and dare to believe that "justice and fair treatment to all" should also apply to Palestinians.

Last week, the ADL added to its clownish "boy-who-cried-wolf" reputation by publishing its list of what it calls the top ten "anti-Israel" organizations in the United States. Unsurprisingly, the organization for which I work--the US Campaign to End the Israeli Occupation--made the list.

The US Campaign is a national coalition of more than 325 organizations working to end U.S. support for Israel's illegal 43-year military occupation of the Palestinian West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip, and to change U.S. policy toward Israel/Palestine to support human rights, international law, and equality. Hardly the white robe-wearing, cross-burning stuff that the organization should be challenging.

If the ADL considers supporting human rights and international law to be "anti-Israel," then it reveals more about the organization's narrow-mindedness, McCarthyite silencing tactics, and support for Israel's oppressive treatment of Palestinians than it does about our alleged motivations.

Indeed, it would seem that for an organization to be considered "pro-Israel" by the ADL, it would need to march in virtual lock step with Israel's ongoing efforts to colonize and ethnically cleanse the Palestinian West Bank and East Jerusalem, besiege the Gaza Strip, repress nonviolent Palestinian organizers (both citizens of Israel and those living under Israeli military occupation), and deny the claims of Palestinian refugees to their right of return home.

Monday close up an insignificant 20.6 to 16,512

We have passed the middle of May and nothing has happened yet, one way or another.

Just stating the obvious to keep the thread at a low throb.

Dow tends to take a bit of a dive in June ahead of the summer lull.