Off to the distillery, ugh. Because I am buying, I will shift it to the brewery next door asap, wish me luck. Going to have to do at least a 5-miler on the mill when i get home, to sober up!
Hope everyone is good and navigating events well. I did nothing in the markets today.
Maserati wrote:
A shxt-ton of correlations point to more significant drops, like the correlation to oil, for instance.
Market down another 2 points today (NASDAQ down 3%).
Panic over the week-end possible.....which could mean a huge drop on Monday.
Thank God losing all this value is not losing money and is healthy -- if you buy into what most folks here have been conditioned to "think".
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
Currently making $bank$ on short positions but damn this is getting nuts. It really looks like this is gonna be a dot com type bust in my opinion and as long as the corporate debt thing isn't too bad then I think we'll just have a regular bear market. I think if the corporate debt thing was a real issue we would have seen a run on the credit markets by now. Sorry Igy, no 60% drop, just a regular bear market to take out the 200 P/E companies
OK, but now you are at a technical level that it is highly likely to wipe out returns to about 2014. Well before I even posted here. Sorry to deliver the bad news.
I'm in puts and leveraged short positions and my parents' 401ks are in solid and safe investments. Back to 2014 or worse? Maybe, we'll find out I guess.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
KeIIy wrote:
I don’t think anyone is suggesting that you can’t time the market. Rather the point is that most people fail miserably when they try. Consider our own local gadfly who has been saying for years that a 60% drop will happen “soon”. He’s the perfect example of the typical clueless investor.
OK resident troll with ever changing handles, as I have pointed out numerous times that is a false statement of what I have posted and my views. However since the market has wiped out a significant amount of capital your cavalier views of an overvalued market are just now being challenged. Your problem and not mine.
Her post was right on.
Why do you consider everyone a troll who expresses thoughts more intelligent than your own?
Go, Pats!
Your drooling mustard down your shirt Go Pats guy. Better stop looking at your investments.
Go Fats!
Sez the Guy wrote:
mellon wrote:
I would agree! Being a "Sucker" for the past year would still be better than having been a "Sucker" for the previous 6 plus years.
Says the guy who thinks you don't lose money when the market goes down (until you sell) but do lose money when you are not in the market and it goes up that you are losing money.
The guy who knows what everybody is thinking, doing, and going to do.
Aaaand my prediction from months ago was right, we are under 22500. I had no basis for this prediction. I can’t find my post predicting this but the search function here is archaic.
I say we dip under 22000 by Jan 1 and under 20000 by the election. 2019 is going to be a horrible year. I predict job losses and increasing unemployment. I predict a an actual recession (classical definition 2Qs of neg growth) by the election.
Again I have no basis for this prediction other than a feeling of impending political doom and Trump’s economic policy based on isolationism.
Alan
mellon wrote:
Sez the Guy wrote:
Says the guy who thinks you don't lose money when the market goes down (until you sell) but do lose money when you are not in the market and it goes up that you are losing money.
The guy who knows what everybody is thinking, doing, and going to do.
Just going by what they are saying. You can't read?
[
mellon wrote:
[quote]Sez the Guy wrote:
[quote]mellon wrote:
[quote]Maserati wrote:
The guy who knows what everybody is thinking, doing, and going to do.
It's called reading and understanding what people are saying.
You ought to try it.
Just in case you were interested, and this snapshot doesn’t include today:
Runningart2004 wrote:
Aaaand my prediction from months ago was right, we are under 22500. I had no basis for this prediction. I can’t find my post predicting this but the search function here is archaic.
I say we dip under 22000 by Jan 1 and under 20000 by the election. 2019 is going to be a horrible year. I predict job losses and increasing unemployment. I predict a an actual recession (classical definition 2Qs of neg growth) by the election.
Again I have no basis for this prediction other than a feeling of impending political doom and Trump’s economic policy based on isolationism.
Alan
Interesting. Maybe. could be right, but I think after a couple neg Qs things will start to climb back.
20,000, 5,900, 2,100 Dow, Nas, S&P I don't think it will go much lower than that and will start to turn positive but ever so slightly. All will be well, just get through 2019.
Yazdontgo wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
Aaaand my prediction from months ago was right, we are under 22500. I had no basis for this prediction. I can’t find my post predicting this but the search function here is archaic.
I say we dip under 22000 by Jan 1 and under 20000 by the election. 2019 is going to be a horrible year. I predict job losses and increasing unemployment. I predict a an actual recession (classical definition 2Qs of neg growth) by the election.
Again I have no basis for this prediction other than a feeling of impending political doom and Trump’s economic policy based on isolationism.
Alan
Interesting. Maybe. could be right, but I think after a couple neg Qs things will start to climb back.
20,000, 5,900, 2,100 Dow, Nas, S&P I don't think it will go much lower than that and will start to turn positive but ever so slightly. All will be well, just get through 2019.
FANGMAN stocks and the market correlation:
Earnings Growth: For Q4 2018, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 12.8%. If 12.8% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.
I haven't been in this thread for months. With the market meltdown I thought I would check it out.
IMO this drop in the stock market was totally predictable. For years since the 08' crises, a primary argument of stock market bulls was that stocks would go up because...where else are investors are going to go. With zero-rate policies you couldn't get any return from bonds. The Federal Reserve was effectively extorting investors to buy stocks. Bernanke was amazingly blunt years back with the second QE that he was trying to artificially inflate the stock market. But that very argument predicted this sell off. Because of the Fed hiking rates finally an investor can make a decent income from bonds whose principal is virtually guaranteed. So is it really surprising that money is pouring out of stocks?
On the whole its a good thing. Higher interest rates are good for pensions and everyone trying to generate a steady income off of investments.
What worries me is this stock market drop could cause people to feel poorer, causing them to spend less. That causes lower profits for businesses leading to layoffs. Suddenly a negative cycle kicks in sending the stock market to do worst than just a normal healthy correction.
But for right now I see this as a good buying opportunity. The trade worries are kind of dumb. Trump is totally predictable. Of course he is going to play a hardball for a time. But we all know when things look bad he is suddenly going to "make a deal". Mostly that deal will involve him selling out his own base.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
KeIIy wrote:
I don’t think anyone is suggesting that you can’t time the market. Rather the point is that most people fail miserably when they try. Consider our own local gadfly who has been saying for years that a 60% drop will happen “soon”. He’s the perfect example of the typical clueless investor.
OK resident troll with ever changing handles, as I have pointed out numerous times that is a false statement of what I have posted and my views. However since the market has wiped out a significant amount of capital your cavalier views of an overvalued market are just now being challenged. Your problem and not mine.
False statement? You realize that everything you post is available for all of us to read, don’t you?
Maserati wrote:
No big deal. Choppy today like I thought, I am staying away. Reports I am getting suggest 2100-2200 as a bottom for this current cycle. You be the judge.
What's the timeline for this?
UncIe B wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK resident troll with ever changing handles, as I have pointed out numerous times that is a false statement of what I have posted and my views. However since the market has wiped out a significant amount of capital your cavalier views of an overvalued market are just now being challenged. Your problem and not mine.
False statement? You realize that everything you post is available for all of us to read, don’t you?
OK, post it.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
UncIe B wrote:
False statement? You realize that everything you post is available for all of us to read, don’t you?
OK, post it.
Took me about 30” to find this:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
a 60% drop comes soon
Next time, do your own homework, you lazy bum.
UncIe B wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK, post it.
Took me about 30” to find this:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
a 60% drop comes soon
Next time, do your own homework, you lazy bum.
OK, disgusting mustard drooling douche bag. That quote was from four months ago not years ago. And interestingly since I posted the market has dropped better than 15%. Enjoy the ride down.
