Down goes the Dow

This mantra about not being able to time the market may be generally true, but it is wrong in my case, because I am more conservative/paranoid/chicken than others who have had success in the markets. I did miss some gain in this run-up, but have already almost made it up on sporadic trades with only a relatively small trading allocation.

Previous year’s events have been more difficult to see, meaning that I stayed in longer, closer to the event, and therefore missed out on less of the run-up gain.

If you pay attention, are not greedy, and plan, you can time the biggest market moves—easily, IMO.

Greed and associated gullibility, combined with arrogance, are the killers.

Also, luck doesn’t hurt. I have had some myself, I don’t know or control everything, or even that much.

Markets opening!

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that you can’t time the market. Rather the point is that most people fail miserably when they try. Consider our own local gadfly who has been saying for years that a 60% drop will happen “soon”. He’s the perfect example of the typical clueless investor.

KeIIy wrote:

point sitting wrote:

No one is going to debate that buying low is good but what some will debate you on is what is low?

Also, buying low and selling high is actually a form of trying to time the market, no?

“How low” is timing the market. Bad.

“Buy low, sell high” is buy and hold. Good.

So if I am to understand this correctly you are saying..

1) if you have $ to invest you immediately buy. that's good and not timing the market buy.

2) then you never sell because that would be considered timing the market. just hold instead.

got it!

thanks

KeIIy wrote:I don’t think anyone is suggesting that you can’t time the market.

actually I think quite a lot of people DO say exactly that. I tend to agree... anyone who says they can time the market by predicting peaks and troughs in advance in any meaningful way is, IMO, either delusional or lying. I guess that includes maserati since he’s claimed he can.

Just my opinion mind you, and opinions are like a$$holes... everyone has one ?

I’m currently reading Taleb’s Fooled by Randomness (author of The Black Swan) and he makes precisely the same point

KeIIy wrote:

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that you can’t time the market. Rather the point is that most people fail miserably when they try. Consider our own local gadfly who has been saying for years that a 60% drop will happen “soon”. He’s the perfect example of the typical clueless investor.

Actually I am that guy and I saved myself a lot of money and grief by jumping out of the market in 2008.

To be accurate, I have not been saying for years that a 60% drop will happen soon,

I have noted that at some point in the not too distant future there will be a meltdown greater than in 2008-2009 seeing as how all the problems that cause that still exist -- and worse. Too big to fail banks bigger than ever, risky and illegal and immoral behavior by those banks in 2008 was not punished (no indictments) but rewarded (trillions in bail-out money and not a bonus unpaid). They are emboldened and the next time will be worse.

Market in free-fall yet again after a very brief run-up at opening.

Is this the big one? Dunno. Is it coming? Of course.

You are discussing my arrogance point.

I don’t so much claim that I “can”, so much as I claim that I “have”. There is a difference. I claim the latter as fact, the former as hope, but not an unreasonable wish.

Again, it is just a question of degree, of honesty. I have never claimed to buy precisely at a market bottom, or sell at precisely market highs. I have told you that I have always left some on the table, this time more than others. I have also told you that while out of equity markets, I am in different markets that I see as more fruitful when I see risk too high in equities.

Everybody who exits equities with a gain has timed the markets successfully. Everybody who either buys or sells, times. It is a long continuum.

No big deal. Choppy today like I thought, I am staying away. Reports I am getting suggest 2100-2200 as a bottom for this current cycle. You be the judge.

A shxt-ton of correlations point to more significant drops, like the correlation to oil, for instance.

point standing wrote:

KeIIy wrote:

“How low” is timing the market. Bad.

“Buy low, sell high” is buy and hold. Good.

So if I am to understand this correctly you are saying..

1) if you have $ to invest you immediately buy. that's good and not timing the market buy.

2) then you never sell because that would be considered timing the market. just hold instead.

got it!

thanks

No, you don’t get it.

Righto wrote:

KeIIy wrote:

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that you can’t time the market. Rather the point is that most people fail miserably when they try. Consider our own local gadfly who has been saying for years that a 60% drop will happen “soon”. He’s the perfect example of the typical clueless investor.

Actually I am that guy

No, you’re not.

Maserati wrote:

A shxt-ton of correlations point to more significant drops, like the correlation to oil, for instance.

Looks a lot like another dot com bust. I still think the economy as a whole will be OK (I hope)

When every Joe on the street thinks they are a genius because they have been making trades, and the market has been going up at breathtaking speeds, then it is wise to think about getting out. When every Joe on the street swears they will never get back into the market because they got killed, then it it time to think about getting back in. Long term it is good to be in the market and own the means of production. Make a few trades in and out, and you will probably beat the long-term steady state returns, while mitigating some risk. Get greedy, and you will get killed.

KeIIy wrote:

Righto wrote:

Actually I am that guy

No, you’re not.

Of course I am.

Drop nearing 17%.

This correction gets healthier and healthier

KeIIy wrote:

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that you can’t time the market. Rather the point is that most people fail miserably when they try. Consider our own local gadfly who has been saying for years that a 60% drop will happen “soon”. He’s the perfect example of the typical clueless investor.

OK resident troll with ever changing handles, as I have pointed out numerous times that is a false statement of what I have posted and my views. However since the market has wiped out a significant amount of capital your cavalier views of an overvalued market are just now being challenged. Your problem and not mine.

Oil price per barrel falling like a rock demonstrates a global slowdown. [Fundamental analysis.] If oil per barrel (USD) falls below $40 per barrel, a significant global slowdown will be occurring or will soon occur. [A nod to our technical analysis friends.] No one investor or group of investors or even a few dictators are able to corner oil market, 2018.

Maserati wrote:

“Suckers”? They have had a decade of epic gains and lost only 1 year of it so far—IMO they have a way to go before they can rightfully be considered suckers—unless you are talking about recent buyers, of which I actually know none.

I would agree! Being a "Sucker" for the past year would still be better than having been a "Sucker" for the previous 6 plus years.

Currently making $bank$ on short positions but damn this is getting nuts. It really looks like this is gonna be a dot com type bust in my opinion and as long as the corporate debt thing isn't too bad then I think we'll just have a regular bear market. I think if the corporate debt thing was a real issue we would have seen a run on the credit markets by now. Sorry Igy, no 60% drop, just a regular bear market to take out the 200 P/E companies

Racket wrote:

Currently making $bank$ on short positions but damn this is getting nuts. It really looks like this is gonna be a dot com type bust in my opinion and as long as the corporate debt thing isn't too bad then I think we'll just have a regular bear market. I think if the corporate debt thing was a real issue we would have seen a run on the credit markets by now. Sorry Igy, no 60% drop, just a regular bear market to take out the 200 P/E companies

OK, but now you are at a technical level that it is highly likely to wipe out returns to about 2014. Well before I even posted here. Sorry to deliver the bad news.

mellon wrote:

Maserati wrote:

“Suckers”? They have had a decade of epic gains and lost only 1 year of it so far—IMO they have a way to go before they can rightfully be considered suckers—unless you are talking about recent buyers, of which I actually know none.

I would agree! Being a "Sucker" for the past year would still be better than having been a "Sucker" for the previous 6 plus years.

Says the guy who thinks you don't lose money when the market goes down (until you sell) but do lose money when you are not in the market and it goes up that you are losing money.