Down goes the Dow

Here's something funny: this group did an exhaustive analysis and found that 15k would be a nice level, and that 18-19k would be a reasonable level to achieve.

Funny because didn't the OP predict DJIA down to 14.7 or 14.4k? And NO, I am not K5!

I could see that 18-19k being achieved, and I would dearly love to see it, or better.

Oh sorry, it was 14.8 when the thread was started, and the OP was predicting sub-13

Maserati wrote:

I could see that 18-19k being achieved, and I would dearly love to see it, or better.

I got yelled at by agip for cheering for the downfall of the stock market because I was holding a way over leveraged short position.

Yeah agip is hurting these days, he must be having a hard time trying to square the circle.

Maserati wrote:

Oh sorry, it was 14.8 when the thread was started, and the OP was predicting sub-13

Actually I am the OP and I was guessing/betting the bottom would be less than 13k for the Dow.

A guess that may yet pan out.

hey all

the suckage is massive. Worst 4Q ever, not in the Great Depression or the Financial Crisis.

Cheers - hope you are all well.

I won't be on the site - trying to keep my cool.

agip wrote:

hey all

the suckage is massive. Worst 4Q ever, not in the Great Depression or the Financial Crisis.

Cheers - hope you are all well.

I won't be on the site - trying to keep my cool.

Good luck man. It's rough out there

Maserati, what happens next? Where's the bottom? Are corporate bonds going to blow up next? We are probably gonna end the day in bear market territory over all 3 indexes

We are definitely getting to 22500 by the end of the year. I see no reason why we won’t drop under 22000. Why? No reason other than pure uninformed speculation.

Alan

The "correction" is now over 16%.

How much healthier can it get?

Racket wrote:

Maserati, what happens next? Where's the bottom? Are corporate bonds going to blow up next? We are probably gonna end the day in bear market territory over all 3 indexes

I don’t know...if I did I would tell you, because this board is wonderfully less than minor.

The decline is very consistent and steady, and nobody is sticking their neck out to lead the markets higher. I never move ahead of big market moves, I will wait until there is evidence of a solid turn. The further down it goes, the more patient I can be.

Corporate bonds are all over the place, you really have to consider the specific issue and/or fund components. I stay away from them generally—i find ratings unreliable, and there are some big boys really controlling that market.

Having said that, prices should fall with the increased fed rate. Good for yield! Absolutely meaningless if the bonds are held to maturity, in which case the dollar index can be important, depending.

Maserati,

I remember a little while back you were looking into high-dividend yielding stocks. Are there any that you like as a long-term investment? I recall you were looking at T, but were concerned about their amount of debt.

I doubled my AAPL stake today. Have at me.

Yes but in the best investing tradition, I am talking out both sides of my mouth, sort of—saying that I just want to sit around with a dividend portfolio, then saying that dividends don’t matter.

Dividends aren’t everything, because there are for sure stocks that are identifiably mis-priced, both to the upside and the downside—a strategy worth knvestigating in an otherwise-distorted market. FMV is a tough call, and can be a questionable basis for a mis-pricing determination. What I look for therefore is a short-term stock-specific move that seems disproportionately large

However, at this point I wonder if markets in the aggregate will resume rising once the dust has settled from this round. They might, in which case the rising tide will float all boats; then again, it could be Japan all over again. If i had to bet today, i would guess that it will be stagflation and that stock picking will rise from the ashes. That guess is why I am looking at dividends, and company performance/debt. YMMV. However, I will not devote more than maybe 20% to such a dividend portfolio, and maybe less.

I won’t give you any specifics other than the things I have already mentioned like T, VGR, and IMBBY, because I don’t pick just for the dividend, and your investment goals/risk tolerance are likely different—consider that I am also looking at RDS-B. The info I use is easy to find, however, most even for free! In fact, a simple web search for dividend stocks can be a good place to start, then you have to look at business specifics like markets, supply chains/sources, debt, and currency risk, if you wish—whatever you think is important to you.

Good luck and I hope you will be positioned to buy something you like at the end of this run.

Doubled from 1 share to 2??

My dividend research has waned because there are tremendous trading opportunities that I have gotten sucked back into...like REW which I bought on someone else’s recommendation, and which I just sold up 10%, also on their recommendation. I haven’t been playing the downside, but they convinced me to give it a go, and they were right. Actually I now have to buy rounds tomorrow after trading, at a local distillery. Ugh

Safe to say Santa left investors a lump of coal.

US equities are falling off a cliff. Wise mutual fund managers and other professionals see the immediate to near term future for profitability of US corporations as less than good. This systematic 2% reduction of US equities most trading days is not retail investors selling their $25,000 portfolios. Big dawgs in the know are selling. Federal reserve answer is to raise interest rates. The Feds are not making a decision or decisions by looking at corporate regression models. Feds are not making decisions based on econometric models. The Feds are making decisions based on their political base. Those who live on bond yields. Ever wonder why Nobel Price winning economist, Paul Krugman was run off the campus at Princeton? The trust fund bond holders and big time donors at Princeton did not like Krugman advocating for low interest rates. Commodities do not lie. Oil per barrel is down in price. A global economic slow down looms. This is not a buy on the dips equity market. Only the suckers are left in US equity markets. The big dawgs have taken their money already.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Safe to say Santa left investors a lump of coal.

Smart investors welcome this.