Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Wishful thinking my friend Maserati. Unlikely to have a benign ending. But I win either way, if the market moves higher my income goes up, if not my investments go up. Perfect hedge.
What we learn from this:
1. Igy is not a fee based advisor, but is paid based on the value of his clients’ portfolio
2. Igy’s personal investments have a minority position in the markets.
The flaw in his thinking is that he believes these two equally offset each other. They don’t.
Maserati wrote:
Racket wrote:
Yes, when it hit's 20% it's called a bear market. Are you retarded?
Nice to hear someone young using the word retarded when appropriate.
Not sure if that's a dig at me or not but the guy is actually acting like a moron so...
Anyways, I'm convinced the panic is because Wall Street knows something we don't, like how they all knew how over leverged everyone was on CDOs in 2008. I also think there could be a liquidity crisis in ETFs if this keeps up. Look at the number 3x leveraged ETFs that popped up right after 2008. Some serious gambling going on and the house doesn't have near enough money to pay out when everyone wins
Maserati wrote:
Gold: tough. Does not track USD perfectly. GDX and GDXJ hammered today. Miners lie, physical is expensive and cumbersome. Small easily-manipulated market. Nice elemental substance, though. Buy it if you like it. PITA to buy in the USA, much easier elsewhere.
Equity prices rose to their max on the back of ZIRP/NIRP and QE, and IMO not much else. What happens when rates stabilize but QT continues? The chickens are coming home to roost.
This is my fear with JNUG and other miner ETFs. I feel like the mining business, especially in developing countries, is built on a house of lies and could have it's entire workforce killed by some dictator with his child soldiers
Maserati wrote:
The thing that average people (and in that I include more than a few professional managers) fail to understand is how they are being used. TPTB make money whether markets rise or fall—the important thing is movement. Recent events are really no big deal, yet. Buybacks and non-GAAP continue, even accelerate.
Buybacks I agree, but I'm not convinced buybacks aren't the worst idea. If a company has cash to do it (like Apple) then why not buyback and give existing investors reason to hold and not dump and run.
Non-GAAP accounting though, I don't know about that. I've never heard of such a claim and all the quarterly reports are audited by Big 4 accounting firms.
Racket wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Nice to hear someone young using the word retarded when appropriate.
Not sure if that's a dig at me or not but the guy is actually acting like a moron so...
Anyways, I'm convinced the panic is because Wall Street knows something we don't, like how they all knew how over leverged everyone was on CDOs in 2008. I also think there could be a liquidity crisis in ETFs if this keeps up. Look at the number 3x leveraged ETFs that popped up right after 2008. Some serious gambling going on and the house doesn't have near enough money to pay out when everyone wins
Wall Street encourages “buy and hold” because it is in their best interest while it is an inefficient way to manage money. Wall Street has not been predictive in advance of Bear Markets.
Racket wrote:
Maserati wrote:
The thing that average people (and in that I include more than a few professional managers) fail to understand is how they are being used. TPTB make money whether markets rise or fall—the important thing is movement. Recent events are really no big deal, yet. Buybacks and non-GAAP continue, even accelerate.
Buybacks I agree, but I'm not convinced buybacks aren't the worst idea. If a company has cash to do it (like Apple) then why not buyback and give existing investors reason to hold and not dump and run.
Non-GAAP accounting though, I don't know about that. I've never heard of such a claim and all the quarterly reports are audited by Big 4 accounting firms.
Stock buybacks serve the insiders because that is the bulk of their compensation. It causes the companies to be manage via stock prices rather thsn for the long term.
Non-GAAP accounting does not factor stock based compensation as an expense, and does not consider write-offs or failed businesses as an expense. Non-GAAP is highlighed by the media and forward operating earnings that is used to justify “valuations” is a non-GAAP number. GAAP is the number that companies submit as accurate in filings to the SEC.
Wrong again wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Wishful thinking my friend Maserati. Unlikely to have a benign ending. But I win either way, if the market moves higher my income goes up, if not my investments go up. Perfect hedge.
What we learn from this:
1. Igy is not a fee based advisor, but is paid based on the value of his clients’ portfolio
2. Igy’s personal investments have a minority position in the markets.
The flaw in his thinking is that he believes these two equally offset each other. They don’t.
I am both a fee based advisor and non-fee based advisor. I am a CFP bound by their code of ethics. The average client fee is 0.59%. Financial advisors predominantly earn more in Bull Markets than Bear Market. Point two is correct and largely also reflected in client positioning. Summary point is correct currently however, but could be incorrect in a severe Bear Market.
Wrong again wrote:
[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What we learn from this:
1. Igy is not a fee based advisor, but is paid based on the value of his clients’ portfolio
2. Igy’s personal investments have a minority position in the markets.
The flaw in his thinking is that he believes these two equally offset each other. They don’t.
You actually imagine that comment makes some kind of sense?
Hear, Yugo! wrote:
Okay Sez wrote:
So a loss of 19% of the value of your holdings is a "healthy correction"?
Correct!
They got you thinking losing 19% of your value is healthy...you dum batard.
Euro markets down a point
A break below 2,400 points to downside risk of 2,100 or roughly the level prior to the 2016 election.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
Not sure if that's a dig at me or not but the guy is actually acting like a moron so...
Anyways, I'm convinced the panic is because Wall Street knows something we don't, like how they all knew how over leverged everyone was on CDOs in 2008. I also think there could be a liquidity crisis in ETFs if this keeps up. Look at the number 3x leveraged ETFs that popped up right after 2008. Some serious gambling going on and the house doesn't have near enough money to pay out when everyone wins
Wall Street encourages “buy and hold” because it is in their best interest while it is an inefficient way to manage money. Wall Street has not been predictive in advance of Bear Markets.
WOW 6 A.M. - Obviously thoughts of a prediction come true causing a lot of excitement & giddiness.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
Not sure if that's a dig at me or not but the guy is actually acting like a moron so...
Anyways, I'm convinced the panic is because Wall Street knows something we don't, like how they all knew how over leverged everyone was on CDOs in 2008. I also think there could be a liquidity crisis in ETFs if this keeps up. Look at the number 3x leveraged ETFs that popped up right after 2008. Some serious gambling going on and the house doesn't have near enough money to pay out when everyone wins
Wall Street encourages “buy and hold” because it is in their best interest while it is an inefficient way to manage money. Wall Street has not been predictive in advance of Bear Markets.
Incorrect. Frequent buying and selling is in the best interests of those who make money off these transactions (Wall Street) and has been proven to be a comparatively substandard investment strategy.
LiIy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Wall Street encourages “buy and hold” because it is in their best interest while it is an inefficient way to manage money. Wall Street has not been predictive in advance of Bear Markets.
Incorrect. Frequent buying and selling is in the best interests of those who make money off these transactions (Wall Street) and has been proven to be a comparatively substandard investment strategy.
That is a hilarious assessment from a guy that is constantly turning over his E*Trade account.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
LiIy wrote:
Incorrect. Frequent buying and selling is in the best interests of those who make money off these transactions (Wall Street) and has been proven to be a comparatively substandard investment strategy.
That is a hilarious assessment from a guy that is constantly turning over his E*Trade account.
Lily is a girls name.
Racket wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Nice to hear someone young using the word retarded when appropriate.
Not sure if that's a dig at me or not but the guy is actually acting like a moron so...
Anyways, I'm convinced the panic is because Wall Street knows something we don't, like how they all knew how over leverged everyone was on CDOs in 2008. I also think there could be a liquidity crisis in ETFs if this keeps up. Look at the number 3x leveraged ETFs that popped up right after 2008. Some serious gambling going on and the house doesn't have near enough money to pay out when everyone wins
Nope not a dig at all.
Riksbank raising rates. Look to other politically stable countries like AUS, NZL, CAN in the future to raise. Might makes right, in a way. 10% off the all-time high, big deal. Very orderly, I sense no real panic. Yes derivatives are the huge key and yes some banks are floated (think DB), and management is in full effect to avoid a 2008-style event...and it is working. If not, it would have happened already.
Gold, yes, int’l miners are scary. Stay far away. I did some work for a miner (not gold) for a while, arctic diamonds. Some good stories.
IMO the Fed knows that inflation is way higher than reported, and not just asset price inflation. Neutral should be at not 2.8 or 3, but 4-4.5. Trump is digging his own grave by pushing fake low unemployment rates (rather than a longitudinally-unmodified U6) and fakely-high GDP he is pumping through record epic gov’t spending, thereby giving the Fed fuel to raise.
Good for the Fed, some brush just might be cleared. Yes 19% down could be a positive because everything is about timing—ie it could be better for the long term, like trimming off split ends, or selectively pruning for higher yield at harvest.
I still think this has been very orderly. Thanks to markets management, nobody can say that they were caught off-guard. This is negative for me, positive for the everyman 401k/IRA. Leaves me a lot of time for research...probably too much time?
Also, lol these CEO’s appearing in tv talking business, eg GE, Micron, Uber, etc
Nobody cares about their business drivel, especially when it rises to the level of a plaintive bleat.
Stock price is all that matters, and it is incredibly removed from business considerations, strategies, and performance.
Nobody cares. Fundamentalists are dinosaurs. Everybody is technical, algos are momentum.
Maserati wrote:
Racket wrote:
Not sure if that's a dig at me or not but the guy is actually acting like a moron so...
Anyways, I'm convinced the panic is because Wall Street knows something we don't, like how they all knew how over leverged everyone was on CDOs in 2008. I also think there could be a liquidity crisis in ETFs if this keeps up. Look at the number 3x leveraged ETFs that popped up right after 2008. Some serious gambling going on and the house doesn't have near enough money to pay out when everyone wins
Nope not a dig at all.
Riksbank raising rates. Look to other politically stable countries like AUS, NZL, CAN in the future to raise. Might makes right, in a way. 10% off the all-time high, big deal. Very orderly, I sense no real panic. Yes derivatives are the huge key and yes some banks are floated (think DB), and management is in full effect to avoid a 2008-style event...and it is working. If not, it would have happened already.
Gold, yes, int’l miners are scary. Stay far away. I did some work for a miner (not gold) for a while, arctic diamonds. Some good stories.
IMO the Fed knows that inflation is way higher than reported, and not just asset price inflation. Neutral should be at not 2.8 or 3, but 4-4.5. Trump is digging his own grave by pushing fake low unemployment rates (rather than a longitudinally-unmodified U6) and fakely-high GDP he is pumping through record epic gov’t spending, thereby giving the Fed fuel to raise.
Good for the Fed, some brush just might be cleared. Yes 19% down could be a positive because everything is about timing—ie it could be better for the long term, like trimming off split ends, or selectively pruning for higher yield at harvest.
I still think this has been very orderly. Thanks to markets management, nobody can say that they were caught off-guard. This is negative for me, positive for the everyman 401k/IRA. Leaves me a lot of time for research...probably too much time?
Regarding inflation, I think the reason it's so low is because of all the stock buybacks instead of contributing more to workers wages. The fact that wages haven't budged as much as they should have and the fact that oil is getting absolutely destroyed right now makes me think inflation really is low.
LiIy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Wall Street encourages “buy and hold” because it is in their best interest while it is an inefficient way to manage money. Wall Street has not been predictive in advance of Bear Markets.
Incorrect. Frequent buying and selling is in the best interests of those who make money off these transactions (Wall Street) and has been proven to be a comparatively substandard investment strategy.
Nonsense in this day of managed accounts.