Runningart2004 wrote:
About 800pts away from my prediction and 10 or so days left. Keep going down!
Alan
Gonna be some panic selling tomorrow. This ain't fear over .25% hike or trade war. Wall Street knows something we don't like they've been betting big on stupid financial instruments again and now they're all about to be worthless
Racket wrote:
Yes, when it hit's 20% it's called a bear market. Are you retarded?
Okay.
So the terminology used by the business says that a loss of 10% up to 19%+ is a correction is your assertion?
And so a 19% loss is healthy?
And you question the intelligence of others?
I Cee wrote:
Racket wrote:
Yes, when it hit's 20% it's called a bear market. Are you retarded?
Okay.
So the terminology used by the business says that a loss of 10% up to 19%+ is a correction is your assertion?
And so a 19% loss is healthy?
And you question the intelligence of others?
Yup. Pretty simple actually.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.aspHear, Yugo! wrote:
I Cee wrote:
Okay.
So the terminology used by the business says that a loss of 10% up to 19%+ is a correction is your assertion?
And so a 19% loss is healthy?
And you question the intelligence of others?
Yup. Pretty simple actually.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp
So a loss of 19% of the value of your holdings is a "healthy correction"?
Yes you are quite simple.
Racket wrote:
Yes, when it hit's 20% it's called a bear market. Are you retarded?
Nice to hear someone young using the word retarded when appropriate.
Racket wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
About 800pts away from my prediction and 10 or so days left. Keep going down!
Alan
Gonna be some panic selling tomorrow. This ain't fear over .25% hike or trade war. Wall Street knows something we don't like they've been betting big on stupid financial instruments again and now they're all about to be worthless
Also some panic buying. Nice day, once again a managed withdrawal. With these new levels, my big simple pattern is now done. Back around now just in case there is a great opportunity that I shouldn’t miss. Still far from my fair value, but getting better. Continuing to develop a future dividend portfolio. Tough. More buybacks.
Management is actually pretty good especially considering ongoing QT, which everyone seems to have forgotten about. QE::QT is asymmetrical in favor of QE, imo
Racket wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
About 800pts away from my prediction and 10 or so days left. Keep going down!
Alan
Gonna be some panic selling tomorrow. This ain't fear over .25% hike or trade war. Wall Street knows something we don't like they've been betting big on stupid financial instruments again and now they're all about to be worthless
Because greed is awesome. Maybe they all put money in BitCoin. That would be crazy
Alan
Gold: tough. Does not track USD perfectly. GDX and GDXJ hammered today. Miners lie, physical is expensive and cumbersome. Small easily-manipulated market. Nice elemental substance, though. Buy it if you like it. PITA to buy in the USA, much easier elsewhere.
Equity prices rose to their max on the back of ZIRP/NIRP and QE, and IMO not much else. What happens when rates stabilize but QT continues? The chickens are coming home to roost.
agip must be out running again today. That guy’s going to be in great shape after this quarter!
How come I am not worried? And a lot more down to come in my view....
Because “Bloomberg Economics has declared this October as the month the world’s major central banks collectively started running down their bond holdings.”, and QT is continuing.
If QT is stopped and/or QE 4 is implemented, you should worry.
Maserati wrote:
Because “Bloomberg Economics has declared this October as the month the world’s major central banks collectively started running down their bond holdings.”, and QT is continuing.
If QT is stopped and/or QE 4 is implemented, you should worry.
No, the trend is down and central bank policy will be ineffective. Besides QE 4 would likely cause widespread panic in an over indebted world.
The medicine for overvalued assets is being administered. The fast and loose times are over.
So, I will let others fight the trend.
Okay Sez wrote:
Hear, Yugo! wrote:
Yup. Pretty simple actually.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.aspSo a loss of 19% of the value of your holdings is a "healthy correction"?
Correct!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, the trend is down and central bank policy will be ineffective. Besides QE 4 would likely cause widespread panic in an over indebted world.
Neither QE 2 nor QE 3 caused widespread panic in their respectively over-indebted worlds.
I do agree that equities are still overpriced. Look at the gains just last calendar year, and think about what drove them. Were the companies really intrinsically 25% more valuable at the end of 2017 than at the beginning?
No, when a stock is considered a claim on part of a revenue stream. Remember 2014? Recent year’s gains have been off-the-charts, historically...and yet “we” have been conditioned to accept them as normal, as expected, as reasonably easily repeatable.
I repeat: this managed withdrawal has been very orderly. Everybody has had PLENTY of time to minimize their losses, even since the start of the current trend in October, and yet the majority continue to accrue paper losses—and still do nothing. Passive. Wait until the funds really get in gear, especially mutuals when daily closes happen at session lows.
The zeitgeist of the immediately prior age, that markets can only always rise over time, was very easily adopted by everyone because they didn’t consider what/who was making markets rise this time. Similarly, the new age in which pessimism rules, has been fairly quickly adopted.
The thing that average people (and in that I include more than a few professional managers) fail to understand is how they are being used. TPTB make money whether markets rise or fall—the important thing is movement. Recent events are really no big deal, yet. Buybacks and non-GAAP continue, even accelerate.
Consider this: what happens down the road, when (if things continue as they are) the shtf and the US Fed is the only CB in the world with any significant “dry powder”?
Wishful thinking my friend Maserati. Unlikely to have a benign ending. But I win either way, if the market moves higher my income goes up, if not my investments go up. Perfect hedge.
Maserati wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, the trend is down and central bank policy will be ineffective. Besides QE 4 would likely cause widespread panic in an over indebted world.
Neither QE 2 nor QE 3 caused widespread panic in their respectively over-indebted worlds.
I do agree that equities are still overpriced. Look at the gains just last calendar year, and think about what drove them. Were the companies really intrinsically 25% more valuable at the end of 2017 than at the beginning?
No, when a stock is considered a claim on part of a revenue stream. Remember 2014? Recent year’s gains have been off-the-charts, historically...and yet “we” have been conditioned to accept them as normal, as expected, as reasonably easily repeatable.
I repeat: this managed withdrawal has been very orderly. Everybody has had PLENTY of time to minimize their losses, even since the start of the current trend in October, and yet the majority continue to accrue paper losses—and still do nothing. Passive. Wait until the funds really get in gear, especially mutuals when daily closes happen at session lows.
The zeitgeist of the immediately prior age, that markets can only always rise over time, was very easily adopted by everyone because they didn’t consider what/who was making markets rise this time. Similarly, the new age in which pessimism rules, has been fairly quickly adopted.
The thing that average people (and in that I include more than a few professional managers) fail to understand is how they are being used. TPTB make money whether markets rise or fall—the important thing is movement. Recent events are really no big deal, yet. Buybacks and non-GAAP continue, even accelerate.
Consider this: what happens down the road, when (if things continue as they are) the shtf and the US Fed is the only CB in the world with any significant “dry powder”?
Hussman would address your theory this way:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1075443678913683458Trading stocks is hazardous to your financial health:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/simpsons_panic1.gif?itok=9MRWgJbu
Hussman’s fund keeps chugging along, in case you are interested:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hussman’s fund keeps chugging along, in case you are interested:
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/HSGFX/betaquote.html
Yet you don’t recommend it. That’s the right call.
