Down goes the Dow

Maser, really, you need to count dividends.

Dow up 1.0% YTD as of 3:42 PM incl divs

world stocks, a much better measure, up 2.4% YTD incl divs

balanced stock bond portfolios up 2.3% YTD

In other, and better news, a Christie's auction just brought in $743M

Like I have said before, there are lots of people with lots of money, and they are looking for places to put it--gold, real estate, and increasingly democratically among world cultures, art, primarily western but increasingly eastern.

People with money have always been in this game to some extent, but it's really moving these days, depending on what you have and where it is sold. The best-performing stuff is the flagship pieces of the huge artists, from what I have seen. Not being in the $100M game, I have a different strategy which has worked well. No I won't tell you what it is, as the supply that interests me is limited.

It takes a lot of research, legwork, and knowledge, however--pretty much like anything that is worthwhile.

DJIA back up above 16,600--barely. Still no reason to jump back in.

The whole thing is about to shit the bed again.

J.D.2 wrote:

The whole thing is about to shit the bed again.

Well, it's down 72 in the first half hour now, again not significant one way or the other.

Lets Run is now a financial website? All you people suck.. don't come to a site concerning athletics to discuss finance. I was at the Forbes site and didn't see one thing about track and field.

3,000 submissions about the Dow and 40 about the upcoming World Relays. I love the sport but I hate our slackjaw, sissy, reactionary fan base. And I hate joggers that seem to have taken over the road racing zeitgeist... just call me hater...

these markets are tough - such divergences. Bonds are taking off, overseas dividend stocks are solid, emerging markets are finally waking up...but US small caps are almsot in correction.

it all adds up to good #s, but choices we make have become important.

but despite these ups and downs keep in mind that world stocks are still within 1.3% of their all time highs and positive for the year, if only a little.

I think the lesson here is diversification - you still have to own everything - who would have thought bonds would have such a big rally? I sure didn't.

but selling high valued securities is prob always a good idea - US small caps being the most expensive thing right now - I have been throwing them over the side.

I agree with diversification, it is maybe the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory.

I have diversified right out of the equity markets!

Now down 140 on the day, not significant for me, but wow these are some good, consistent daily swings.

Any chance K5 will make a cameo appearance for post 3k?

Sally Vixxxens wrote:

Any chance K5 will make a cameo appearance for post 3k?

well every time I think they've finally figured out how to ban him, he comes back.

He's disappeared before for periods of time and returned - I suspect he has psychotic breaks and needs to rest every now and then.

Just freaking imagine the inner life of that guy - muttering nazi propaganda about ancient conspiracies and whatnot.

I've watched this technical pattern for the past three days. I think this is the beginning of a 700+ point decline that will occur over the next couple of weeks. This is based on the following. Candlestick shooting star pattern a couple of days ago with the DOW far above its 8 day exponential moving average. That's a good (i.e. better than 50%) bet of a move back to the 8EMA line. True to form, the DOW dropped below the 8EMA yesterday.

Today, the decline continued below the Bollinger Band mid-point which *usually* signals a continuation of the move to the lower band, currently at 16347. The midpoint is 16522, so today's close would need to be well below that to *break* the midpoint.

A Bollinger Band squeeze is also in place. Over the last two years, a BB squeeze has signaled a short term (2 to 4 weeks) move of 400 to 800+ points. Given the above, the next move is likely to be down. A sideways or rally for a couple of days would strengthen, not weaken, this forecast.

BB signals are accurate enough that I'd bet a little on this move if I knew a good way to short the DOW without going to puts. Anyone have a suggestion? I was looking at SDOW.

DJIA down around 175 at midday, K5 might appear to gloat.

Still not significant to me, even if it ended the day down 175.

If fisky's 700+ point decline happens, I will have some tough decisions to make about whether to get back in or not. It will depend if it is 700 or 1300 points, the speed of the fall, and how certain sectors are faring. To be honest, I don't think I would bite in a general sense even at a 700 point loss.

Actually, I want to see a solid 25% drop. 4,000 points

Which is in fisky's 700+ territory

fisky I really do wish you would post with more than minimal precision.

Maserati wrote:

Actually, I want to see a solid 25% drop. 4,000 points

I would be cool with a 4,000 (or more) drop too. Reasons?:

1) The market ALWAYS comes back...ALWAYS.

2) When the Dow went from 14,100 to 6,400 (7,700 point drop), because of dividends, it didn't take the Dow to get back to 14,100 for me to be back to where I was. I have a non-retirement mutual fund that I am currently not adding to and haven't since about 2005. It had a peak value in October 2007 before the drop and then it was back to where it had been WELL before the Dow once again hit 14,100...and again, I wasn't adding to it.

3) Since point #1 is true, then it means that as I continue to buy (and I ALWAYS buy), that if the Dow drops 4,000 points that I am buying at a discount and that eventually those purchases will be worth a lot. Cool.

I don't SEE a 4,000 drop in the near future though.

Final thing is that a 700 point drop shouldn't convince you to get back into the market. You should be in the market because it's the right thing to do...ALWAYS except in very rare circumstances.

Maserati wrote:

fisky I really do wish you would post with more than minimal precision.

I really wish I could! Maybe this will help. Candles and 8EMA are really short term (2-5 days), but they can help identify a reversal.

I mostly watch Bollinger Bands (20,2). I look for two signals.

Crossing the mid-point

When trading crosses the mid-point AND trades all day the following day above the mid-point, the uptrend usually continues until it touches the top band. (It may or may not continue up once it touches the top band.) A downtrend signal would be the reverse, i.e., a close below the mid-band and trading all day the following day below the mid-band. In the past year in the DJIA, there were 15 crossings that fit this criteria, 12 of 15 were accurate, 3 of 15 were false signals.

The squeeze.

When trading narrows over 20 days, the BB significantly narrows. The next move outside the band is a signal. (NOTE: The signal can be either a reversal or a continuation.) With the Dow, in the past year, there have been 3 squeezes (narrowing of the band width). The moves following the squeezes were: Aug2013, 14 days, -800pts; Dec2013, 10 days, +900pts, 11 days, -1000 pts.

Bollinger Band Squeezes only predict direction, so the magnitude is just an educated guess, based on squeezes over the past couple of years. The 150DMA provides support near ~16100; the 200DMA provides support around 15900 and has been a major support level in the past.

All these indicators are just probabilities; they can be wrong... and pretty quickly. I just find that writing this out helps clarify what I'm seeing.

[quote]agip wrote:

"Just freaking imagine the inner life of that guy - muttering nazi propaganda about ancient conspiracies and whatnot"

Poor little agip. When presented with facts that put the lie to the pro Israel propaganda he has been fed his whole life, he must lash out with hysterical name calling to prevent the collapse of this carefully constructed inner fantasy world.

Some, when presented with facts that prove their bias to be wrong, actually learn and change their views. Agip, like nearly all dupes of pro Israel propaganda, close their minds and attack the messenger with hate fueled rants.

More news about Israel that we are not supposed to see (and will not see in the "mainstream" media.

Two Palestinians were killed and a third is in critical condition after being shot by the Israeli military outside of Ofer prison in the West Bank at an annual Nakba Day protest. The youths were struck with live-fire and nine others critically wounded, according to hospital staff. The Nakba (literally “catastrophe”) refers to the 1947-49 expulsion of over 750,000 Palestinians who were forcibly evicted or fled from their villages, thus creating a refugee population that today has reached seven million.

[quote]Maserati wrote:

DJIA down around 175 at midday, K5 might appear to gloat.

You are confusing K5 with agip -- or perhaps projecting your own personality

Agip will soon call for my banning too.

Facts about Israel are not allowed on Letsrun; only ridiculous pro Israel propaganda (and, of course, racist attacks on Muslims and black men)

Flagpole, how long do you think the "market" has existed? Since 3000 BC? Since the 19th century? Since the post ww2 era?

At first I thought this a good question, but upon reflection, the point is that the market is here now, has been for all of our lives, and shows no sign of imminent disappearance.

Think about sanitary sewers...you should always have them except in very rare circumstances. That they haven't always existed doesn't really change that.

You should be down with this ryan, I have just analogized the markets to sewers!

You're welcome.