Official 2014 DIII Cross Country Thread

Yeah, North Central didn't quite repeat their perfect score they achieved last year, but it doesn't matter. They've won every conference championship since 1974 and had a 15 second spread this time. Still the team to beat.

St. Olaf is looking better and better though. They nearly got a perfect score too, tightening spread to 40 seconds (note that the spread last year when they won was 67 seconds). Their top 2 guys will be hard to beat, and last year's #2 Jake Brown is back in form too as the third man. 15 seconds between 1 and 4. If they keep it up and their #5 improves they still have a shot.

UW Eau-Claire (#2 ranked) - 36 points, 1:12 spread

UW La-Crosse (#5 ranked) - 47 points, :39 spread

Williams (#3 ranked) - 39 points, 1:03 spread

I'd think St. Olaf will get their #2 ranking back.

Agreed, very impressive run from Olaf.

Some interesting things to note:

-Olaf greatly surpassed the performance of their championship squad last year with a significantly tighter spread and an avg time 15 seconds faster on a tough course.

-As one of the only points of comparison we have between the two teams thus far, NCC put 3 guys ahead of Carleton's Hart Hornor (#10 flotrack ranking) with their 4-5 guys a few seconds behind him.

The Oles had 4 ahead of Hart Horner yesterday with their 5th about 10 seconds behind him.

In short, I'm not saying that Olaf is the best team at this point; however, It appears they are rounding into form VERY well in the late season as they did last year. I believe NCC is the rightful favorite but I must give respect where it is due.

Predicting another nail biter in 2014.

I think at this point, St. Olaf is being over hyped based purely off of what they did last year and NCC is being underrated for how solid they have been this year. At Oskosh, NCC had a 12 second 1-5 spread. NCC's top guy Kelleher is arguably just as good as Olaf's Wintheiser (Kelleher won their last head to head matchup in the Drake 5k but both did seperate races at nationals- Kelleher 3rd in the 10k and Wintheiser 3rd in the 1500). At conference, running without #2 man Morrison (who is maybe hurt? although it appears he hasn't raced in all the varsity races with NCC this year so maybe they sat him again?- anyone with info on that want to help?) they had a 14 second 1-5 split. In fact, they had a 17 sec 1-6 split and throwing in Morrison who would've been somewhere in that mix, they would have a 1-7 split of roughly the same. Where am I going at with this?

St. Olaf is a good team, certainly the clear cut #2 in the nation if everyone's healthy and especially with Brown rounding into form, you would think they should put 2 in the top 10 at nationals again and probably have 4 all-americans like last year. However, their spread from MIAC was 40 seconds and the 1-4 was 15 secs.

NCC's top man the last 5 years at nationals has been: 2nd, 6th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd. Meaning its a safe bet that the NCC top guy will roughly be around 4th. a 14 second spread for NCC's top 5 assuming their top runner is around 4th would mean they would put their top 5 in the top 20 and top 7 (with a spread of 17-20 seconds) in the top 30. St. Olaf would put 4 in the top 20, but the 5th would be back in the 40s or 50s.

Meaning- that it won't even be a close race. Plus, St. Olaf also has a way smaller margin for error only having 5 runners essentially (their 6th and 7th are really weak). NCC has 7 close so even if two have an off day, they won't pay for it that much.

As of this point, I would say its safe to say the NCC team is pretty clearly the best team and Olaf would have to run out of their minds to have a chance to win.

If North Central has a top-5 scorer and a 14-second spread at nationals, it will probably be one of the greatest performances in the history of NCAAs. Their 2009 team had a 25-second spread with their first guy taking 2nd. I'm not saying it's impossible, just that it would be an amazing performance. It's probably no more or less likely than St. Olaf repeating their run from last year.

(Note-- North Central is still the favorite. I just doubt they have such a small spread at NCAAs, especially if Kelleher is with Wintheiser.)

Splitting ends wrote:

NCC's top man the last 5 years at nationals has been: 2nd, 6th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd. Meaning its a safe bet that the NCC top guy will roughly be around 4th. a 14 second spread for NCC's top 5 assuming their top runner is around 4th would mean they would put their top 5 in the top 20 and top 7 (with a spread of 17-20 seconds) in the top 30. St. Olaf would put 4 in the top 20, but the 5th would be back in the 40s or 50s.

Meaning- that it won't even be a close race.

I will bet you $500 that NCC will have more than a 25 second spread at nationals.

Only thing stopping NCC from winning is a bad race. Heck, they could run not-so-well and still win. We can always hope Olaf can compete on equal days, but Escher has not proven himself on the grass yet. This ain't a 1500. Hope the kid can deal with pressure, along with their 1-4 because they all need great days to beat NCC on an "average" day.

I'd like to add UWEC and UWL into the mix but that's a conversation for 3rd place.

olrunninfun wrote:

Only thing stopping NCC from winning is a bad race. Heck, they could run not-so-well and still win.

Hope the kid can deal with pressure, along with their 1-4 because they all need great days to beat NCC on an "average" day.

Cough 2013 cough

olrunninfun wrote:

Only thing stopping NCC from winning is a bad race.

Hard hitting analysis

Splitting ends wrote:

NCC's top man the last 5 years at nationals has been: 2nd, 6th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd.

Not to split hairs, and I likely haven't been following this as closely as you, but I believe Crain's 2nd place last year was worth just 1 team point. You need to look past the absolute place in the results and ignore the runners not running for a team at nationals.

I think it's going to be way closer between Olaf, Eau Claire, and La Cross for the #2 spot at nationals. Taking at look at both MIAC and WIAC results both Eau Claire and Olaf had their top 6 in the top 20 overall. Not to take away from Olaf's almost perfect score win, but perfect scoring in the MIAC isn't saying much right now. The MIAC has 3 teams ranked, Olaf at 4th, but after that Carleton is 23rd, which good, but not as competitive as the WIAC currently which has 5 ranked teams, two of which are in the top 5 overall. Both Olaf and La Cross had a solid 40 second spread for their scoring 5. Olaf and Eau Claire had the low scorers, which is definitely needed for a podium. Those low scores are good, but its totally dependent on the 4-5 running on the team score. I think whose 4 and 5 are better that day will determine overall team place at nationals, regardless of how low the first 2 or 3 runners place (assuming they're placing low). If I had to take a stab at it now, I say Eau Claire just edges out Olaf for #2, and Olaf just edges out La Cross for #3. A lot can happen the next few weeks, so it should be exiting to watch it play out. LX will be hungry after being denied the win at Conference on their home course, and Olaf has a solid reputation to defend from last year. I think the hungriest will be Eau Claire since they've never had a taste of a national championship and just really want a f*cking slice.

Olaf still looks way better than Eau Claire at this point in the season. Como (The MIAC course) is most definitely harder. If you need any point of reference, Ben Sathre only went 24:54 there. EC's number five, Steve Schimmel was still a good nine seconds slower than Paul Escher any way.

Eau Claire is not at all on the same playing field as St. Olaf (and clearly neither is Lax). UNLESS St. Olaf loses one of their top 5 (as was the case when Lax narrowly beat St. Olaf), they still remain the clear cut #2.

NCC put 7 in front of Eau Claire's 2 at oshkosh, and eau claire just beat lax straight up at conference. Meaning at the very least, its ncc, eau claire, then lax. Now, Eau Claire's current #2 Mugan is a returning all-american and clearly underperformed at oshkosh, meaning they are slighlty better than they were when they got handled by NCC. However, Olaf's spread from Wintheiser, a proven national title contender, means that theres a good chance St. Olaf would also put 4, if not 5 in front of Eau Claire's 3.

Not even close.

NCC

St. Olaf

Eau Claire/Lax

4 is a stretch, 5 would be if someone lost a leg. I get it that Olaf is good, I'm just saying that the separation isn't as great as everyone plays it up to be. The placement will depend on the 4-5 runners at the national level. If I'm going to guess at your prediction, Wintheiser over Thorson, Mugan over Olafs #2. After that I'm not too certain, but I think the average place of Eau Claire's #4 and 5 will be in front of Olafs 4 and 5.

I heard rumors that the mysterious Jib has recovered from Ebola and walked 6xmile in an average pace of 6:10 w/ 1 minute recovery at altitude on friday. He should be in contention for the individual title come November 22. This will greatly improve Lax's chances in the upcoming weeks.

In other news, Williams will be skipping this year's national championship to mourn the loss of their beloved teddy bear.

The King in the North wrote:

I heard rumors that the mysterious Jib has recovered from Ebola and walked 6xmile in an average pace of 6:10 w/ 1 minute recovery at altitude on friday. He should be in contention for the individual title come November 22. This will greatly improve Lax's chances in the upcoming weeks.

In other news, Williams will be skipping this year's national championship to mourn the loss of their beloved teddy bear.

You may be the worst troll I have ever seen. And I'm blind. If you're going to troll, at least make it relevant.

#gotufts

Does anybody know what is up with Horton? He didn't race at the IIAC meet and it cost Central the conference title in a close race.

http://www.iowaconference.com/custompages/championship/xc/XC_IIAC2014_men.htm

The Dancing Bear wrote:

4 is a stretch, 5 would be if someone lost a leg. I get it that Olaf is good, I'm just saying that the separation isn't as great as everyone plays it up to be. The placement will depend on the 4-5 runners at the national level. If I'm going to guess at your prediction, Wintheiser over Thorson, Mugan over Olafs #2. After that I'm not too certain, but I think the average place of Eau Claire's #4 and 5 will be in front of Olafs 4 and 5.

Agree with Wintheiser over Thorson. I don't think there's much debate about that one. I'm not sold on Mugan over Olaf's #2. Jake Campbell beat Mugan convincingly twice this season, and while Mugan has certainly gotten better, so has Campbell. There's also the chance that by nationals Jake Brown might be the Olaf #2. He beat Mugan at nationals last year and could do so again. Then Phil Meyer was right behind the two Jakes at MIAC, so he probably also slides in ahead of Eau Claire's #3. I'll say the Jakes and Mugan come to the last 400 in a pack and that Mugan finishes in the middle.

Wintheiser, O

Thorson, EC

Campbell, O

Mugan, EC

Brown, O

Meyer, O

Leitner, EC

Lau, EC

Escher, O

Schimmel/Rosvold, EC

Olaf has the edge at every spot here. If everyone runs their best, Olaf is better. Obviously Eau Claire has more depth, and thus would be hurt less by a bad race from one of the top 5.

Rob Stark is dead for a reason wrote:

The King in the North wrote:

I heard rumors that the mysterious Jib has recovered from Ebola and walked 6xmile in an average pace of 6:10 w/ 1 minute recovery at altitude on friday. He should be in contention for the individual title come November 22. This will greatly improve Lax's chances in the upcoming weeks.

In other news, Williams will be skipping this year's national championship to mourn the loss of their beloved teddy bear.

You may be the worst troll I have ever seen. And I'm blind. If you're going to troll, at least make it relevant.

#gotufts

I think you might be underestimating Jib. That 6x1mile workout is no joke. I honestly expect Jib to cream the field all the while stopping to shotgun a Natty Daddy before crossing the line.

Lots of good points by most everyone. Here's returnees from 2013 (just members of the top few teams)

2 Wintheiser, St. O, 24:34

5 Brown, St. O, 25:00

8 Mugan, WI-EC, 25:02

16 Cotton, Williams, 25:09

21 Campbell, St. O, 25:19

23 Kelleher, NCC, 25:24

28 Mazaheri, Williams, 25:29

31 Routhier, WI-LC, 25:30

34 Root, NCC, 25:32

38 Ciesielski, WI-LC, 25:33

39 Lietner, WI-EC, 25:36

50 Meyer, St. O, 25:45

54 Linner, WI-LC, 25:47

61 Ford, Williams, 25:50

66 Inde, Williams, 25:51

83 Townsend, Williams, 26:00

122 Sebhat, NCC, 26:19

125 Kerska, WI-LC, 26:20

137 Rosvold, WI-EC, 26:27

Last year was last year, but this does show how good Wintheiser, Brown and Campbell were. That's a pretty lethal top 3, and there's no reason to doubt they'll be in even better shape for this year's championships. It would not be any shock at all if they scored something like 1-3-8.

It's true that NCC has the superior depth. I agree they deserve their #1 ranking so far, but by no means are they unbeatable. They've been running so great all season, but it's possible a couple could underperform. And even if they run an awesome race, St. Olaf could still get it done simply by their top 3 performing simply as expected, and Meyer, who was just 1 second behind Brown at Conference, improves on last year's performance, and Escher improves. Escher is by no means a weak link. If he can pull off staying within 40 seconds of Wintheiser at nationals, that could place him in the top 20.

Should be a great re-match!