Official 2014 Paris Marathon Live Discussion Thread - Kenenisa Bekele Makes His 26.2 Debut

Thanks.

watcher of turnovers wrote:

turnover check in on Bekele

*Carol Lewis voice* 183, 183!!

So when do you expect a WR attempt? My guess is Berlin 2015, maybe Dubai next year

Isn't Dubai short?

The race is over. Read our 2014 Paris Marathon recap hereThe race starts in a little less than 2 hours. I'm going to go take a nap and hopefully wake up before the halfway mark but thought I should start this thread.The weather for Paris looks to be less than ideal.The temperature will be 56-60 degrees but with very high humidity (86% to 80%) and it will be windier than one would like.The wind will come out of SSW between 9 mph and 12 mph which means they'll be running with a cross wind based on the course map. They'll be running directly into the wind on miles 8.5 to 9.5, 17.5 to 19.5 and 22 to 23.Course map:http://www.schneiderelectricparismarathon.com/marathon/2010/images/MDP10Parcours.jpgWeather:http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/Paris+FRXX0076:1:FRIt's interesting to think what a good performance for Bekele will be.Victory is obviously the first goal. Then time.But what's a great time for a debut? It's worth noting that the professional 26.2 debuts of both Haile Gebrselassie (former WR holder at 10,000 and eventually the marathon) and Sammy Wanjiru (Olympic champ) were very similar - 2:06:35 and 2:06:39. Former 10,000 and 26.2 World Record Holder Paul Tergat debuted at 2:08:15.The Paris course record is 2:05:12.The fastest debut ever on a loop course is 2:04:15.I spoke with John Kellogg earlier tonight before looking at the forecast and asked him what he thought Bekele might do. He was bullish and said sub 2:05. He thought a 2:04:35-2:04:55 performance was possible.After finding the weather forecast, I called him back and he revised it.

John Kellogg said:

"I'm going to go with 2:05:15 to 2:05:30 since it's going to be muggy. Now at that temperature (high 50s), muggy conditions aren't that big of a deal, but it's not ideal - and that's assuming he's in sub-2:04 shape on a perfect day with rabbits and a faster course. He might be on 2:04-flat pace for 30k with the rabbits, but when they drop out - and they normally go about 30k - he'll have to run into the wind by himself."

"Now I have no idea what type of shape he's actually in. I'm assuming he thinks he could run around world record pace if everything was perfect, which is a stupid assumption for just about anyone but Bekele, right?"

For those of you watching, 2:05:00 pace is 4:46.05 per mile. Being an international race, the splits might be km only and 2:05:00 is 14:48.73 per 5km or 2:57.75 per km.

3:00 per km projects out to 2:06:36 so you definitely want to be seeing sub 3 per km.

Please post the opening splits as they occur for those of us that miss the beginning.

BobbyM wrote:

BS. I'd take 60/35 or 60/40 over 60/53. Nobody will confuse a 53 dew point with being a sauna, but it is moist when temperatures are cool. RH isn't an absolute measure, but is relevant.

Nonsense. RH is a meaningless number. It is irrelevant. Dew point is the absolute measure of energy in the air. It is the whole shebang.

The Dew Point Temperature - A Better ApproachSteven L. Horstmeyer

The Concept

Humidity is a complicated concept. Humidity refers to evaporated water substance in the air, i.e. water vapor. For years relative humidity has been what we use to inform the TV audience, but it has many pit falls and to tell you the truth almost no one understands it, including many meteorologists.

Think Energy

When thinking of humidity you always have to think in terms of energy. Of course this is expressed as temperature. There is only so much energy to go around and only a certain part of the thermal energy can go to do the work of evaporation. The rest goes to the other molecules in the air.

Relative humidity expresses how much of the available energy has been used. A relative humidity of 50% means half the energy has been used to evaporate water from the ground, streams, lakes anywhere else it is and 50% is still available to do more evaporation.

Relative to What?

On a summer morning the temperature may be 75 degrees and the relative humidity 90%, a very sticky morning indeed. Without changing the amount of water vapor in the air if the temperature hits 92 degrees in the afternoon the relative humidity is 52%. Relative humidity is RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY AVAILABLE Because the amount of energy increased as the sun warmed the atmosphere the percentage of the energy used decreased, i.e. the relative humidity, all the while there was no change in the amount of vapor in the air.

So when you hear someone say its feels worse than 52% relative humidity today, they do not understand the concept of RELATIVE HUMIDITY. Ninety-two degrees and 52% is a very humid afternoon. Because the concept is confusing many meteorologists are trying to get use dew point temperature.

The Dew Point Temperature

Dew point temperature is a measure of humidity. If you take a parcel of air, and cool it, eventually you will remove enough energy to begin to get water vapor to condense. Remember the water vapor was originally liquid water and to get it to evaporate you had to add energy. As long as it has sufficient energy it will remain vapor, but as you cool it at some point condensation will occur. The temperature where condensation begins is the dew point temperature. In terms of relative humidity, as the parcel of air is cooled, the relative humidity increases, when the relative humidity reaches 100%, you are at the dew point temperature.

Dew Point vs. R.H.

Unlike relative humidity if dew point increases, it is only because the amount of moisture increases. If relative changes it can be because of temperature change or moisture change, two variables leads to too many possibilities, with dew point it is strictly moisture you are tracking.

Dew point can never be higher than the temperature, at saturation, i.e. 100% relative humidity the temperature and dew point are the same. …

So How Does Dew Point Feel?

On a typical summer day the following apply:

________________________________________

• Dew Point(F)..........Perception

________________________________________

• 75+....................Extremely uncomfortable

• 70-74...................Very humid, quite uncomfortable

• 65-69...................A bit uncomfortable for most people

• 60-64...................Ok for most, but everyone begins to feel the humidity

• 55-59...................Comfortable

• 50-54...................Very comfortable

A Common Misconception

One last thing if you ever hear someone say it was 90 degrees and the humidity was 90%, that has never happened in Cincinnati, (and unless the greenhouse effect goes into overdrive never will). 90 deg/90% requires a dew point of 85.5 degrees. In Cincinnati the highest ever dew point was 81 deg. for just a few minutes.

In August 1995 we had four hours of 78,79,78,77 degree dew points, the highest persistent dew points I have seen in Cincinnati since working here as a meteorologist. For one hour I did see a dew point of 81, just after a thunderstorm.

World Record Dew Points

However veterans of the Persian Gulf War know what 90/90 feels like. The Persian Gulf and Red Sea both attain sea water temperatures in the mid 90's. That's plenty of energy, along with the 115 degree air temperatures, to evaporate water.

The dew point has been measured on the shore of Ethiopia, the area is now part of Eritrea, at 94 deg. F. The highest known dew point temperature in the world. The relative humidity with a temp of 115 and a dew point of 94 is 54% this doesn't tell you as much as the dew point when you consider the table above.

yyy wrote:

Isn't Dubai short?

This is going to be a big problem for athletics Ethiopia. There are literally dozens of Ethiopians who have run faster times than Bekele on the (short?) Dubai course. If that continues and you select based on time then Bekele may be cut out.

Most of these guys are nonames ...

Hopefully, next year he will try for the WR. He probably learned a little bit from this one that will help him later.

This was a great result and shows that he has what it takes to take it under 2:03.

Track Historian wrote:

Hopefully, next year he will try for the WR. He probably learned a little bit from this one that will help him later.

Why not try this year at Berlin?

Great run for Bekele.

Yes, he's the real deal in the marathon.

But it reminds me a bit of the Coe - Ovett ear; in other words, King Kenny dodged Mo.

Skinny dude wrote:

But it reminds me a bit of the Coe - Ovett ear; in other words, King Kenny dodged Mo.

How do you know he dodged him? Maybe they wouldn't let him in London or they weren't willing to pay enough.

chiming in, i give bekele a 204 mid on a faster course.

and 30 seconds better with pacing for another 10k.

and 30 seconds better minimum if the hamstring does not cramp, minimum.

what's that?

close to 203 flat.

right now the marathon is where the best distance runners are at, and the 203 flat ain't no joke. bekele has a shot no doubt.

If he dodged someone it wasn't Mo. In hindsight, now that he did this 2:05, I think it was a good choice to not do London straight away. Running against the top Kenyans,without the experience, not really knowing your limits over the distance, and being highly competitive, could easily end in a DNF or similar.

powl wrote:

Skinny dude wrote:

But it reminds me a bit of the Coe - Ovett ear; in other words, King Kenny dodged Mo.

How do you know he dodged him? Maybe they wouldn't let him in London or they weren't willing to pay enough.

If he's going to make any sort of record attempt, he had better do it soon, as marathon training seems to bore him.

So he needs to get into some competitive races, not like this one where he's all alone and, arguably, bored.

The money's good for sure, but I think he wants more than that--he wants to win in a competitive race. There is a decent chance he's doping which is why he burnt out on the track and switched to marathon, but who cares. When there's that kind of money at stake, nobody of his name recognition will go down.

So I think the big question is boredom, so he should get into a competitive race ASAP, like Berlin 2014. I think all he needs is one (1) competitive tune-up to get his juices flowing, then in his 2nd competitive race, we will see real fireworks.

I love the way this guy finishes, like he really wants to win for the sake of winning. What a closer.

A time of 2:02 high or 2:03 low is certainly within the realm of reality.

Great run. Does anyone think this means he could be a 26:30 10000 guy again? Or Is it just that a 26:50s person may be able to train well and run a 2:05:00?

I agree, especially if he ran with a group and not solo.

I'd love to see him kicking away from a good group in the last 200m of a marathon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

POD

watcher of turnovers wrote:

Should be 2:04 high no problem-remember, he's got a 53 second last lap if he needs it, folks!

also, Bekele is gonna go all Benjamin Button on us like Lagat....he's got ~3 more years to chase the record, IF he can stay interested that long.

The other guy! wrote:

yyy wrote:

Isn't Dubai short?

This is going to be a big problem for athletics Ethiopia. There are literally dozens of Ethiopians who have run faster times than Bekele on the (short?) Dubai course.

Do you guys honestly think that the the international officials who measured Dubai independently got it wrong at 42095m?

Have you ever been to Dubai or seen the course? Of course not.

The reasons it is fast are obvious:

1. It is truly flat. Compared to Dubai, Chicago or Paris are like New York. The city was built by pouring concrete on a desert. There is no variation in the topography whatsoever. The indoor ski hill and waterslide park are the closest things to hills you will find.

2. It is very easy to run the tangents (ie THE ACTUAL RACE DISTANCE). While London is really quite flat, the turns are frequent and often sharp. NOBODY runs the shortest possible distance, and if they do they either use more energy or slow down minutely as the take the corners. The tightest turns in Dubai are bends you can see literally a mile away. The turns are rarely if ever even as tight as an outdoor track.

Ambitious wrote:

That was too easy:

(From the prediction thread)

Ambitious wrote:

Wins in 2:05:06.

HM at 61:55, which blows off the field soon after, then blows up himself at the 21st mile. Has enough dignity to still crawl under the course record of 2:05:11.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&thread=5723824&id=5725167#5725167

Nicely done - I believe we have a winner! [although 3 flat / kilometer from 35k to the finish is some pretty fast "crawling"]

RoJo - what do we have for our champion? I hope you can do better than the classic "year's supply of Rice-a-Roni, the San Francisco treat".