Down goes the Dow

I couldn't hold back - It was just too tempting.

I will try not to post performance updates except at the end of the months, but no promises.

I'm not this dickish in real life...maybe this is an argument for lrc registration.

heads you lose tails I win wrote:

Exactly.

Thanks for your help with that.

extend the lines please wrote:

http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/05/Real-Dow-Jones-since-1900.jpg

you math guys can plot the slope but 7,000 seems to be where history would put the Dow today. Factor in the change in economic viewpoint over the last 20 years and we still can not argue for much above 10000 and I'm not sure that argument is super strong. Knock out the last 20 years where day traders became cannon fodder for the institutional traders ( think many actually betting their house!) add a plethora of oddly envisioned products hitting the market (think one house* writing 78 Billion $US in credit default swaps) and what that did.

*think of the name of a Pirate Rum Company.

well, if you discount the advantages companies have today, of global markets, educated workforces, low inflation, TECHNOLOGY, less corruption, TECHNOLOGY, longer lives, much larger populations...then yeah, the dow should be lower.

wait, what's your point?

extend the lines please wrote:

http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/05/Real-Dow-Jones-since-1900.jpg

Good graph. Do you know - is that updated through May 2010, or more recent? (guessing from the url address)

agip wrote:

well, if you discount the advantages companies have today, of global markets, educated workforces, low inflation, TECHNOLOGY, less corruption, TECHNOLOGY, longer lives, much larger populations...then yeah, the dow should be lower.

wait, what's your point?

Exactly! Didn't you all know that the economy never experienced major technological advances prior to 1994? Or any of that other stuff? /sarc

Klondike5 wrote:

The declawed cat should not attack a pitbull

Another zero.

Perhaps it is the word 'content' that befuddles you. Is this the reason that whenever I point out that your posts have zero content you come back with more zero content?

Would you like a primer on the word 'content'?

Wow, I just saw your post on another thread where you stated that the Israeli occupation was worse than the actual rape and murder of an 8 year old girl who died from internal injuries suffered during 'sex' due to the incredibly sick 'tradition' in some countries of 'wedding' children.

So, yes, feel free to lump me in with agip in calling you out as an incredibly sick anti-semite.

And now we return to your regularly scheduled zero content messages.

"I had just never heard of anyone selling and then holding cash inside the account. That's certainly unusual"

It is? You're kidding. Right?

steve dildarian wrote:

This thread is evidence that being both wrong and obstinate is a perfect recipe for annoyance.

Also evidence that you cannot construct a workable sentence.

Klondike5 wrote:

"I had just never heard of anyone selling and then holding cash inside the account. That's certainly unusual"

It is? You're kidding. Right?

It is certainly unusual. Typically when someone sells some of their holdings within a retirement account, those funds are then used to purchase new holdings within a short period of time.

Financial advisor wrote:

Klondike5 wrote:

"I had just never heard of anyone selling and then holding cash inside the account. That's certainly unusual"

It is? You're kidding. Right?

It is certainly unusual. Typically when someone sells some of their holdings within a retirement account, those funds are then used to purchase new holdings within a short period of time.

You hold no fixed income products in your 401(k)?

I would say that is rather unsual

BoJax wrote:

You hold no fixed income products in your 401(k)?

I would say that is rather unsual

Fixed income products are not the same as cash.

Financial advisor wrote:

BoJax wrote:

You hold no fixed income products in your 401(k)?

I would say that is rather unsual

Fixed income products are not the same as cash.

1. I never said I am holding "cash".

2. I do have bonds and CDs and some in a money market. The CDs and the money market are fixed income products and sometimes referred to as cash.

You guys want to argue about every stupid thing and are remarkably ignorant about all things

Klondike5 wrote:

1. I never said I am holding "cash".

2. I do have bonds and CDs and some in a money market. The CDs and the money market are fixed income products and sometimes referred to as cash.

You guys want to argue about every stupid thing and are remarkably ignorant about all things

You also never said you had reinvested the proceeds of your equities sales into fixed income assets. CDs and money market funds yield virtually nothing, so they are essentially the same as cash. Bonds are in a bubble and very dangerous right now.

[quote]Financial advisor wrote:

You also never said you had reinvested the proceeds of your equities sales into fixed income assets.

Correct. I never said anything at all about what I did with the money I moved out of equities.

CDs and money market funds yield virtually nothing, so they are essentially the same as cash.

Correct. They are called cash -- whether they are yielding next to nothing or 5%. They are also called fixed income products

dow is up to 15,279. so, higher than when he sold, and he lost out on buying during that time and dividends. nice.

it will go down, but I don't see the huge drop that he "feels"...at least not this year. and the gains always trump the dips, so getting out at 15000 doesn't look smart right now.

no one importan wrote:

dow is up to 15,279. so, higher than when he sold, and he lost out on buying during that time and dividends. nice.

I am thinking a little longer term.

When I got out, I felt that the attack on Syria would have taken place by no later than August and that the inevitable disastrous consequences would have roiled the market by now.

Then Obama blinked and then Kerry committed his now famous gaffe (being spun as genius by the sycophants) and the disaster has been put off. The market has reacted quite favorably to fact that the Syria attack has been put off.

Nonetheless, I strongly suspect that the war party will get its attack on Syria in the next couple of months by hook or by crook. And that it will be a disaster that echoes thru the region and sends the price of oil soaring. And this, in turn, will cause a big drop in the market. Hence, I can easily forgo a few days of gains of less than 1% considering what I think to be a good chance of a much larger drop in the near future.

We will see. I hope I am wrong about the attack on Syria -- but I doubt it.

no one importan wrote:

... and he lost out on buying during that time... nice.

Don't forget that between july 10 and aug 14, the dow was higher than it is now.