Boston analysis

Renato Canova · 2011-04-20T17:23:57-04:00

I'm now in Kenya, just arrived from Boston. I read a lot of comments about the influence of the wind, and frankly I find the nost part of these without any fundation. At first, we go to see the difference between the times of the best men and women and their PB, with some comment for everybody. MEN 1) Geoffrey Mutai 2:03:02 2:04:55 - 1:53 2) Moses Mosop 2:03:06 Debut 3) Gebre Gebremariam 2:04:53 2:08:14 - 3:21 4) Ryan Hall 2:04:58 2:06:14 - 1:16 5) Abraham Cherkos 2:06:13 2:07:29 - 1:16 6) Robert Cheruiyot 2:06:43 2:05:52 + 0:51 7) Philip Sanga 2:07:10 2:07:11 - 0:01 8) Chimsa 2:07:37 2:07:54 - 0:17 9) Daba 2:08:03 2:07:04 + 0:59 10) Robert Kipchumba 2:08:44 2:08:07 + 0.37 11) Peter Kamais 2:09:50 2:14:58 - 5:08 12) Cardona 2:12:17 13) Gilbert Yegon 2:13:00 2:06:18 + 6:42 14) Migidio Boirifa 2:13:45 2:09:07 + 4:38 15) Abe 2:15:48 2:13:46 + 2:02 Without calculating Mosop and Cardona (of course PB being their first marathon), we have a total time of + 15:49 for the athletes not running their PB (6 in top 15) and a total time of - 13:12 for the athletes running their PB (7 in top 15), with a balance of + 2:37 SLOWER THAN THEIR PB considering the top 15 (157.0 : 13 = 12.0 of average SLOWER THAN THE PB OF THE ATHLETES. Of course, this mathematic calculation is ridicolous. Infact, if we speak technically, we must cancel (because don't have any real signification) the performances of the following athletes : PETER KAMAIS (PB of 5:08) because Boston was his second marathon, the first was NY last year, when he finished jogging after trying to stay with the leaders for 35 km. So, the PB of last year was not his real value. The expecation of his coach Claudio Berardelli was of 2:07 / 2:08 for Boston. At the end, PB slower than the expectation. GILBERT YEGON (worse than his PB of 6:42). He tried to stay with the leaders, but his shape was not the best, and at the end he paid. His value could be about 2:08 with an even race, but in his current shape was penalized by the pace of yje race. MIGIDIO BOURIFA - His PB is of long time ago. His current value, in any case, is about 2:12. So, he ran slower than the expecrarion, but not too much. If we cancel the above athletes, we have a final balance of - 3:35 cumulative for 10 athletes, that means a difference with their PB of 21" each one (and I don't want to cancel Gebremariam, but of course his PB in NY last year was not his real value, being the first marathon and a difficult course). WOMEN 1) Carolyne Kilel 2:22:36 2:23:25 - 0:49 2) Desirèe Davila 2:22:38 2:26:20 - 3:42 3) Sharon Cherop 2:22:42 2:22:43 - 0:01 4) Caroline Rotich 2:24:26 5) Kara Goucher 2:24:52 2:25:53 - 1:01 6) Dire Tune 2:25:08 2:22:44 + 2:24 7) Workenesh Kidane 2:26:15 2:27:15 - 1:00 8) Caballero 2:26:17 9) Alice Timbilili 2:26:34 2:25:03 + 1:31 10) Ruban 2:27:00 2:27:44 - 0:44 11) Tsegaye Tirfi 2:27:29 2:22:44 + 4:45 12) Girma 2:28:48 2:27:51 + 0:57 13) Mugo 2:29:06 2:27:16 + 1:50 14) Skvortsova 2:29:14 2:26:24 + 2:50 15) Pushkaryeva 2:29:20 2:26:14 + 3:06 This means, for the 13 athletes already with a PB in Marathon, totals of + 17:23 slower than their PB, and of 7:17 faster, with a final balance of + 10:06 distributed between 13 athletes : that's mean the average of the top 15 was 46.6 SLOWER THAN THEIR PB. I spoke with the most part of the athletes, after the racem and EVERYBODY told me the wind was not very strong, not always id direction of the race, and the most part of time not significative (some time also against). The numbers I wrote before seem to confirm their theory. The PB (excluding the debutants) among the top 15 men were 6, while other 7 didn't improve. Inside the women race, the PB were 6, against 7 that didn't improve (same like men). Of course, the direction and the strength of the wind was measured at the start, and during the race there were a lot of variations. Also, the real component in direction of the race was between 20 and 40% of the strength of the wind, and in many cases (when the athletes were in the middle of buildings) the wind didn't arrive to the runners, because, coming from one side, the buildings created a barrier for the wind itself. So,every LINEAR calculation is a pure and, excuse me, very stupid speculation, because there is no a CONSTANT that is at the base of any physical analysis. Of course we can find some small advantage, but to speak about 3-4 minutes is simply crazy, and has nothing to do with the reality. I have the idea that US people were shocked by the performances of Ryan and of Desirèe, losing the contact with the reality. Of course, if in the mind of American runners you continue to look at 2:28 for a woman and 2:10 for a man like unbelievable performances (for the most part of people not possible without doping... how stupid and sad behavior !), you don't believe possible, for your runners, to have times of 2:05 and 2:22 without a lot of external aid. But I can tell you something. I knew Mosop was in a shape of 2:04, as Geoffrey, from what they were able to do. Of course, I didn't know what Ryan Hall could be able to do, and his 63:55 in NY HM didn't authorize anybody in thinking he could be in his best shape. Now I say my explanation for what happened. 1) In a course without rabbits, nobody supposed that one athlete (Ryan) could go from the start at so fast pace, without any mental inhibition. Ryan was wonderful as personality and as interpretation of the race, knowing his only chance is in a very fast but even pace. Of course, he didn't know the potentiality of Geoffrey and Moses, and he tried his best. Without him,probably the race could be a normal competition, with a final time about 2:05. 2) Geoffrey and Moses never looked at the watch, so were not afarid about the speed because they didn't want to know it. Honestly, we feared Gebremariam, and the tactic, involving Geoffrey, Moses and Robert Cheruiyot, was in any case to push very hard immediately after 30 km. 3) Without any mental conditioning, Geoffrey hammered in incredible way, running 28:24 between 30k and 40k. But wonderful was Moses, having a max gap of 8.0, never thinking to look for maintaining the second position only, but always concentrated on Geoffrey. His ability to stay in the race, in his first marathon, closing the gap after being 50m behind, was something really unbelievable (14:07 between 35 and 40k). And they were still able to finish last 2195m in 6:14 Geoffrey (exactly 2:50 per km) and 6:18 Moses (2:51.7). 4) They average was 2:55 per km, and this is possible only for athletes able running at the moment 10k under 27:00. The reality is that Marathon is changing, with this type of athletes. Till 5 years ago, few athletes able running about 27:00 moved to marathon, and only when old, and no more to run faster than 27:30. The same Tergat (WR holder of 10000m in 26'27") moved to marathon when no more able to run faster than 27:10. Instead, athletes like Geoffrey and Moses move to marathon WHEN ARE ABLE TO RUN 26:45. This fact provokes different effects : a) These athletes are younger (so more fresh in their mind and their body) and faster than before b) Their training changed. I use very high intensity for extensive workouts (for example, Moses ran 40k 3 weeks before Boston in 2:07:15, on rough road, start and finish in the same place, and heavy training shoes), and of course I need to give more days of recovery between one specific wokouts and the next one. In this case, Moses had the next training on track (10 x 1600m with 2' recovery in 4'35" / 4'32" with the last in 4'17") exactly 6 days after his 40k. c) Their level of intensity NEVER goes under 85%. This is a big difference, because in Kenya and Ethiopia the post-race behavior is to relax without doing any alternative training for rebuilding speed and muscle strength, so everytime the athletes prepare a new marathon they start again from a low level. Instead, Geoffrey using competitions, Moses using training, both of them maintain a high quality also short time after the marathon. We saw this last year with Geoffrey and Wilson Kiprop, this year with Mary Keitany. d) Physiologically speaking, this type of athletes are able running a HM near 6 mml of lactate, and their marathon is near 4 mml. In other words, if till 5 years ago the best marathon runners were DIESEL ENGINES, now are TURBO DIESEL (whar already happened with Paula Radcliffe). So, I really think that we don't have to wait too long time for looking at the first 2:02, also if it's difficult to have all the components favourable like in Boston this year. At least, everything has a logic explanation, and to do wrong analysis for justifying something out of the normality is an exercise that has the only effect to create limits in the mind of the athletes, and excuses for their poor performances.

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15 years ago 04/24/2011 7:36pm EDT

re: agip

A takeaway from Boston 2011 is if there is a tailwind condition on this (or similar) course, run the first half (downhills) relaxed and conservative, and stay in a small pack or disperse while being aggressive on the flats and uphill portions, then be in the kind of condition where you can withstand the final pounding downhills.

A somewhat opposite strategy would likely be the case for headwinds (hide in larger pack, more aggressive downhill, conservative on flat/uphill, unless the wind is blocked by said uphill).

15 years ago 04/24/2011 7:38pm EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
a vote for the obvious here - it was the wind.
UNLESS Mutai and others start running 2:03x - then, we should revisit the thread.

Ryan Hall has posted his thoughts on the race here:

http://ryanhall.competitor.com/2011/04/22/reflections-on-the-2011-boston-marathon/

He doesn't mention the wind at all.

15 years ago 04/24/2011 7:46pm EDT

re: altoroad

altoroad wrote:
agip wrote:
a vote for the obvious here - it was the wind.
UNLESS Mutai and others start running 2:03x - then, we should revisit the thread.
Ryan Hall has posted his thoughts on the race here:
http://ryanhall.competitor.com/2011/04/22/reflections-on-the-2011-boston-marathon/
He doesn't mention the wind at all.

__________________________

I have never been shy about leading and with the conditions as ideal as they were I was not about to let one mile slip by, as I knew that something special could happen today.

what do you think this means, then?

15 years ago 04/24/2011 7:47pm EDT

re: altoroad

altoroad wrote:
Ryan Hall has posted his thoughts on the race here:
http://ryanhall.competitor.com/2011/04/22/reflections-on-the-2011-boston-marathon/
He doesn't mention the wind at all.

Why would he?

15 years ago 04/24/2011 7:56pm EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
altoroad wrote:
Ryan Hall has posted his thoughts on the race here:
http://ryanhall.competitor.com/2011/04/22/reflections-on-the-2011-boston-marathon/
He doesn't mention the wind at all.
__________________________
I have never been shy about leading and with the conditions as ideal as they were I was not about to let one mile slip by, as I knew that something special could happen today.
what do you think this means, then?

In his case, it could well mean that he'd had an especially good bible study session going into the race.

15 years ago 04/24/2011 7:59pm EDT

re: altoroad

altoroad wrote:
agip wrote:
__________________________
I have never been shy about leading and with the conditions as ideal as they were I was not about to let one mile slip by, as I knew that something special could happen today.
what do you think this means, then?
In his case, it could well mean that he'd had an especially good bible study session going into the race.

__________________

you got a sn***** out of me, but that's all. Clearly he was talking about the low temps and tailwind.

15 years ago 04/24/2011 8:03pm EDT

re: agip

15 years ago 04/24/2011 8:03pm EDT

re: Master of the Obvious

Master of the Obvious wrote:
altoroad wrote:
Ryan Hall has posted his thoughts on the race here:
http://ryanhall.competitor.com/2011/04/22/reflections-on-the-2011-boston-marathon/
He doesn't mention the wind at all.
Why would he?

Apparently the wind was blowing so hard as to propel the blowhards on letsrun. But I suppose that people usually only notice headwinds; tailwinds are usually interpreted as "feeling good".

15 years ago 04/24/2011 8:51pm EDT

re: factor x

Great quotes from Ryan Hall BEFORE the race. He was praying for those conditions.

"Depends on the day."

"If we get a good day. Get a good tailwind. Cool day. Sky's the limit. When you are running one direction. You get a tailwind. You can really roll."

"I'm waiting for one of those years."

"Bill Rodgers stopped 5 times. I asked him, "How'd you run that fast", He said 'We had a wicked tailwind'"

15 years ago 04/24/2011 9:12pm EDT

re: Windblower

Here are the splits for last year and this year. I don't know the Boston course at all, but there are plenty of people here who do.

2010 2011

5k 14:53 14:29

10k 15:14 14:37

15k 14:51 14:39

20k 15:13 14:58

25k 14:47 14:33

30k 15:00 15:07

35k 14:44 14:12

40k 14:39 14:13

The only thing that jumped out at me was that last year's split from 25-30k was faster; perhaps that can be attributed to the rhythm of the race. Otherwise , the two sets of data look reasonably similar, with those of this year's race being 15-30 seconds faster.

It might be interesting to compare splits for more years to see if there is a pattern from which one might make conclusions about the effect of the wind. I'd rather just watch the race.

15 years ago 04/24/2011 9:38pm EDT

re: altoroad

Congatulations everybody, sixteen pages of American whiners.

15 years ago 04/24/2011 9:39pm EDT

re: altoroad

altoroad wrote:
Here are the splits for last year and this year. I don't know the Boston course at all, but there are plenty of people here who do.
2010 2011
5k 14:53 14:29 -24
10k 15:14 14:37 -37
15k 14:51 14:39 -12
20k 15:13 14:58 -15
25k 14:47 14:33 -14
30k 15:00 15:07 +7
35k 14:44 14:12 -32
40k 14:39 14:13 -26
The only thing that jumped out at me was that last year's split from 25-30k was faster; perhaps that can be attributed to the rhythm of the race. Otherwise , the two sets of data look reasonably similar, with those of this year's race being 15-30 seconds faster.
It might be interesting to compare splits for more years to see if there is a pattern from which one might make conclusions about the effect of the wind. I'd rather just watch the race.

15 years ago 04/24/2011 9:55pm EDT

re: slow hands

slow hands wrote:
Congatulations everybody, sixteen pages of American whiners.

Thanks for joining us!

15 years ago 04/24/2011 10:40pm EDT

re: slow hands

slow hands wrote:
Congatulations everybody, sixteen pages of American whiners.

Do you even know the definition of "whiner"?

So much ignorance, so little time.

15 years ago 04/24/2011 11:07pm EDT

re: altoroad

The only thing that jumped out at me was that last year's split from 25-30k was faster; perhaps that can be attributed to the rhythm of the race. Otherwise , the two sets of data look reasonably similar, with those of this year's race being 15-30 seconds faster...

Last year, which I ran, 25- 30k would have included a significant tailwind up the hill right after the fire station at 17.4. The wind was NW last year and it definitely helped up that hill, being one of the few times the wind was a true tailwind. This year (I did not run) I think it was probably a side wind at that point and so the wind could not help up that particular hill. Again though, I want to see mile by mile splits for each race since 2007.

15 years ago 04/25/2011 3:45am EDT

re: agip

agip wrote:
a vote for the obvious here - it was the wind.
UNLESS Mutai and others start running 2:03x - then, we should revisit the thread.

I'll agree with Ryan Hall's opinion, before the race.

"Depends on the day."

"If we get a good day. Get a good tailwind. Cool day. Sky's the limit. When you are running one direction. You get a tailwind. You can really roll."

"I'm waiting for one of those years."

"Bill Rodgers stopped 5 times and he still ran 2:09. (Rodgers statement at the time, "2;09? I can't run that fast!") I asked him, "How'd you run that fast", He said 'We had a wicked tailwind'"

15 years ago 04/25/2011 10:41am EDT

re: malmo

Malmo, you argue your case so forcefully that you undermine your own credibility. This is particularly true when you resort to ad hominem attacks on people who challenge you. That being said, I agree with your basic point that the wind was a significant factor. I also agree with those of your detractors who suggest that you cannot possibly measure the precise effect that the weather had on a runner's performance.

15 years ago 04/25/2011 10:54am EDT

re: Slainte

I never said that it can be precisely measured.

15 years ago 04/25/2011 11:27am EDT

re: malmo

So after 16 pages, how far have we gone, and how much further can we go?

On one end of the spectrum, Renato declares the wind effect to be not more than 40 seconds.

On the other end, we have several "scientific" approaches which say that such high winds should generate 3-4 minutes advantage.

Seemingly in the middle, we have Ken Young (ARRS) who somehow statistically computed a race time bias of 1:37 (for the men), for a course that is usually 13.5 seconds slow. This means the effect of wind/weather is a net 1:50.5.

Even a letsrun analysis (point 7 in the week that was) seems to suggest a 2:00 minute advantage over 2010 (also wind aided).

Ken Young seems to have created controversy/support for saying it's "statistially valid", and not "excessively aided", but looking at the ARRS website, and you see that the times are also not "record quality". They will not be considered an "ARRS record". The times are included, and coupled with the bias, will be used to calculate world rankings and marathon comparisons.

It may not seem apparent, with all these numbers floating around, but the ARRS calculations seem to support Renato. The 2011 bias gives Mutai a "normalized" time of 2:04:37, and Mosop 2:04:41. On a course like Berlin, with an average bias of 68.5 seconds faster, these times become 2:03:28.5 and 2:03:32.5. Even London would have given Mutai a 2:03:58.2

15 years ago 04/25/2011 11:57am EDT

re: rekrunner

canova's estimate of mutai has to be worth something - he is familiar with guy's training to some degree & he believes he was "stronger" for this race than when he ran 2"04'55 on flat course

now, to be stronger, i assume that means he reckons mutai was putting up better training figures

if for instance prior to his 2'04'55 he was running X reps of 1 mile with Y rest in say 4'30, a 15 - 20s improvement in a 2'04'55 woud proportion down to improvement in training of ~ X reps of 1 mile with Y rest in say 4'29.2

this looks to me like a very small improvement to notice in training, probably too small to warrant the adjective "stronger"

i'd reckon for any coach to notice an improvement in training, those reps woud have to be at least 2s quicker -> X reps of 1 mile with Y rest in say 4'28 ->

~ 2'04'00

that does indicate jeff woud have to have been in more like in/at wr shape for an observing coach to justify a phrase like "stronger"

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