So you are writing off chebet's 1500m abilities from her real 1500 debut where she ran against Tsegay who runs crazily like spliting 1.59 for the first 800? Last year chebet made like 6 attempts at the 5k world record and two more times this year till she got it. Am sure if she runs more 1500s and get used to running the distance she will get faster and Tsegay won't be a threat at all
I'm not writing her off, just was expecting to see a lot more today. The LRC pod spent 30 min discussing if she'd break the wr today. Seriously. I didn't think that was possible, but I'll admit to fully expecting her to handily win this race regardless of the pace and run a time under 3:52, even 3:51. I thought she wouldn't let Tsegay get too far out ahead and she would run her down. Suprised more of you won't admit to thinking the same pre race.
I was never sure where the basis for Chebet even sniffing the WR came from. Wrote on another thread she will run 3.54 and she did and this was the logic.
I'm always incredibly surprised how incredible the points tables are in this sport. I appreciate quantifiables but believe there is plenty of nuance that can't be quantified or have a number prove - and yet invariably these crazy tables never seem to fail.
Athletes that compete/even attempt both the 1500m and 5000m almost never have the same ability over both distances. They spectrum/bandwidth might vary from athlete to athlete but it's never the same. And predicting the 3000m is also simple - it's somewhere in between, it's just biased closer to the a certain end based on what they are better at.
Kipyegons 1500m sits at 1300 points, her 5000m is 1273 points. She's a better 1500m runner than 5000m runner so a good prediction for a 3000m is right at about the 1290 point mark. What's 1290 points? 8.07.20
Chebets 5000m is 1287, the 3000m she ran in Rabat 1274 so assuming she is a better 5000m runner (because shes primarily a 5000/10000m runner), I would estimate her 1500m to be somewhere around 1250 points. That is 3.54.57.
I dunno - it just seems to work.
This post was edited 58 seconds after it was posted.
Yeah but thats ‘people’ i.e pundits, based off a final km in an Olympic 5k race
Its not like Chebet gave a press conference and said shed run 3.51
Except Chebet is absolutely capable of 3:51 or better. People here think that talent can be unique and super specific to a particular distance -- but that's not the way physiology works. Chebet's 13:58 plus her 56/26s closing ability at 400/200 suggest she absolutely has both the wheels and the engine for a 3:50 run. This was her first "real" 1500m as a pro. Today was her first meeting with the distance, a "hello". Once they get to know each other, we will see something special from Chebet. I don't see what's so controversial about this. 3:54 is not her ceiling.
I am in complete agreement
I expect Chebet to end up a 3.51 1500m runner in the end
Wise old guy just expected her to run 3.50 from the get go
even the world record holder herself had to take the stairs to 3.48
Also just saw Reynold Cheruiyot ran a 12.1 final 100 in that 1500! Dude closes like a train but he was boxed in on the last lap and not close enough to use that kick.
Good job by Nuguse getting to the lead with 200 to go. When he felt Nordas coming on his outside, he responded decisively.
I wish i knew him personally
i feel his talents may lie in the 5k the same way Obiri moved on up to devastating effect!
someone just has to get that in his head because he’s tactically sh*te in these DL 1500s
I'm not writing her off, just was expecting to see a lot more today. The LRC pod spent 30 min discussing if she'd break the wr today. Seriously. I didn't think that was possible, but I'll admit to fully expecting her to handily win this race regardless of the pace and run a time under 3:52, even 3:51. I thought she wouldn't let Tsegay get too far out ahead and she would run her down. Suprised more of you won't admit to thinking the same pre race.
I was never sure where the basis for Chebet even sniffing the WR came from. Wrote on another thread she will run 3.54 and she did and this was the logic.
I'm always incredibly surprised how incredible the points tables are in this sport. I appreciate quantifiables but believe there is plenty of nuance that can't be quantified or have a number prove - and yet invariably these crazy tables never seem to fail.
Athletes that compete/even attempt both the 1500m and 5000m almost never have the same ability over both distances. They spectrum/bandwidth might vary from athlete to athlete but it's never the same. And predicting the 3000m is also simple - it's somewhere in between, it's just biased closer to the a certain end based on what they are better at.
Kipyegons 1500m sits at 1300 points, her 5000m is 1273 points. She's a better 1500m runner than 5000m runner so a good prediction for a 3000m is right at about the 1290 point mark. What's 1290 points? 8.07.20
Chebets 5000m is 1287, the 3000m she ran in Rabat 1274 so assuming she is a better 5000m runner (because shes primarily a 5000/10000m runner), I would estimate her 1500m to be somewhere around 1250 points. That is 3.54.57.
I dunno - it just seems to work.
But then if we look at Jakob, a prominent 1500-3000-5000 guy, do we assume he is better at 1500? Or 5000? His 1500 is 1292 while his 3000 is 1320. So are we looking at a 5000 in the 1340s 👀
Conversely he may just be better at the 3000 than the other two and is an outlier.
Who cares if it was 3:33 though it’s a race. Not every race needs to be 3:27 for it to be an exciting race.
They didn’t reach their potential in this race, that fundamentally makes it a little disappointing.
Yep. If it was Laros or Jakob these same people would be complaining up the yinyang. But since it’s Nuguse, everything is A-OK. They’re rather transparent.
Is Sha'carri injured or something? No way she's just straight up washed at 25
She has the attention span of a butterfly.
Maybe its all she is interested in?
Having talent is no guarantee if you can't focus. She has repeatedly shown she has great athletic ability and poor focus.
Maybe its all she's got. Maybe not?
There are plenty of athletes out there with as much or more talent. I'll be happy to enjoy them, rather than showing angst over Sha'carri
Im seeing less Drive all the time. Overall and out of the blocks. She has no drive phase. Maybe she doesn't have the Drive any longer and has accepted that this is her last vacation season before harsh reality sets in? And then nobody cares.
I was never sure where the basis for Chebet even sniffing the WR came from. Wrote on another thread she will run 3.54 and she did and this was the logic.
I'm always incredibly surprised how incredible the points tables are in this sport. I appreciate quantifiables but believe there is plenty of nuance that can't be quantified or have a number prove - and yet invariably these crazy tables never seem to fail.
Athletes that compete/even attempt both the 1500m and 5000m almost never have the same ability over both distances. They spectrum/bandwidth might vary from athlete to athlete but it's never the same. And predicting the 3000m is also simple - it's somewhere in between, it's just biased closer to the a certain end based on what they are better at.
Kipyegons 1500m sits at 1300 points, her 5000m is 1273 points. She's a better 1500m runner than 5000m runner so a good prediction for a 3000m is right at about the 1290 point mark. What's 1290 points? 8.07.20
Chebets 5000m is 1287, the 3000m she ran in Rabat 1274 so assuming she is a better 5000m runner (because shes primarily a 5000/10000m runner), I would estimate her 1500m to be somewhere around 1250 points. That is 3.54.57.
I dunno - it just seems to work.
But then if we look at Jakob, a prominent 1500-3000-5000 guy, do we assume he is better at 1500? Or 5000? His 1500 is 1292 while his 3000 is 1320. So are we looking at a 5000 in the 1340s 👀
Conversely he may just be better at the 3000 than the other two and is an outlier.
Well there are a lot of people that think he's potentially better over 5000m and maybe his 3000m sits super close to the end of that (1325?). That would be 12.29.37 - I know that the one and only Jon Gault predicted that Jakob might in fact run that fast this season.
Or look at it this way. He's actually not going to be that good over 5000m and he a really unique athlete where his data points are the 1500 and 3000
1292 for 1500m, 1320 for 5000m. His 2000m PR at 4.43.13 is 1308. Again logical if you believe his best event may truly be the 3000m (as many do).