Any thoughts on how Great Oak boys will do? Will they even qualify for state out of that section?
Will Millikan boys qualify? Have they ever qualified before?
GO should be cooked next year; they've finally run out of the Doug Soles alumni and will have to train new runners under their new system.
They return 2 scorers around high 15 low 16 minute Mt Sac time / Woodward Park time, but then their next guys are like high 17 minutes and above.
With their current non-graduating guys I see on Athletic net, I don't even think they would have qualified for state, they'd probably struggle to make it there in most divisions let alone D1. They'd need to have runners who missed all year who are studs, massive improvement of existing runners, or multiple impact transfers for their roster to make it to state next year.
Last time the Great Oak boys team didn’t make state was 2012. Looks like the streak might get broken
Imma be real- everything from the guy’s individual side is so cooked (This is not including the obvious individuals from Jesuit and Matilda Torres, who are def going to nxn). Will make a girls one, at some point.
Top tier:
Maximo Zavaleta (MLK), Conor Lott (Clovis North), Oliver Hunter (Dana Hills), Olly O’Connor (Viewpoint), Aidan Antonio (Woodbridge).
Mid Tier:
Blake Bay (Fresno Christian) and Alijah Murillo (Branham)
On the come up:
Braulio Castillo (West Ranch), Andres Lomeli (Kimball), Noel Huato (Del Oro), Matteus Dos Santos and Yohan Anderson (San Clemente), Elias Thronson (Davis), Mario Montoya (Redondo Union), Henry Hauser (Menlo), Yuvel Goldberg (Mountain View), Clark Gregory and Caden Ehrhorn (Campolindo).
Boys 3200 M ================================================================ At-Large: @ 9:03.03 Name Year School Finals ================================================================ Finals 1 Holman, Broen 12 Sonora 8:59.01@ 2 Abbott, Isaac 11 Jesuit 9:02.36@ 3 Lomeli, Andres 11 Kimball 9:04.70 4 Anderson, Owen 12 McClatchy 9:06.05 5 Thronson, Elias 9 Davis 9:08.07 6 Himley, Braden 11 Ponderosa 9:22.93 7 Wejmar, Larson 11 Turlock 9:24.86 8 Duquette, Nicolas 10 Davis 9:25.68 9 Charkiewicz, Oliver 10 River City 9:27.68 10 Whitemyer, Parker 11 Oakdale 9:27.97 11 Capelli, Thomas 11 Oak Ridge 9:28.11 12 Mysliwiec, Andrew 12 Davis 9:29.82 13 Kearney, Patricio 12 Orestimba 9:30.75 14 Levasseur, Jackson 11 Christian Brothers 9:34.14 15 Jopson, Rafael 10 Jesuit 9:36.46 16 Koneru-Ansari, Sami 12 Folsom 9:37.39 17 Campos, Jace 11 Pacheco 9:39.83 18 Bilodeau, Connor 10 Granite Bay 9:41.00 19 Hundley, Ty 10 Vacaville 9:47.89 20 Terry, Hayes 11 Beyer 9:48.22 21 Wilson, Landon 9 Sonora 9:48.26 22 Bartell, Havyn 11 Beyer 9:49.09 23 Avis, Anthony 10 Woodcreek 9:51.22 24 Enquist, Ian 12 Vista del Lago 9:56.79
I would say Thronson from Davis Senior is more than a "come up. " 9:08 as a freshman is very good. Plus he has very good coaching at Davis. He may be the next great one out of California.
Tully just released his watchlist for the upcoming XC season. No Cali boys but Chiara Dailey and Jaelyn Williams make it for girls which is nice to see. I would probably say Lott got snubbed a little bit with a 4:04 and 8:57 but Tully was primarily looking at XC speed ratings from last year with guys running above a 190 or an equivalent 14:30s on the track for 5k. Any thoughts?
D2 is loaded this year and will in my opinion be the race of the day.
Torres vs Jesuit will be a fun rematch and if Jesuit is healthy they could be able to put together a ridiculous team time. Not to mention Mountain View and Vacaville. Add in Antonio/Murillo/ Gully and it should be a fun race. I definitely would not count Antonio out of it!
Elias Thronson (yes Elias Thronson) will win NxN as a senior
Things like this aren’t even impossible anymore. Who would have picked Charlie Vause to win NXN 2024 anyways?
9:08 as a freshman means nothing. Broen Holman and Maximo Zavaleta were much faster than that. Generally the best runners are the ones that develop the fastest and improve the most.
Tullyrunner California Jesuit (SJ) CA 53 181.50 California Matilda Torres (CS) CA 122 174.67 California Arnold O. Beckman (SS) CA 127 173.83 California Woodbridge (SS) CA 127 174.08 California Campolindo (NC) CA 127 173.28 California Mountain View (CC) CA 138 172.56 California San Clemente (SS) CA 148 171.75 California Mira Costa (SS) CA 150 171.31 California ML King (SS) CA 150 171.52 California Ayala (SS) CA 160 170.01 California
Waitformoredata Jesuit 109 Beckman 238 Mira Costa 301 Vacaville 377 Mountain View 391 JSerra 415 Woodbridge 417 Campolindo 490 Matilda Torres 499 ML King 516 Ayala 526 San Clemente 527
I agree with tullyrunners that Jserra is going to be irrelevant. Very track oriented team. Interesting that Tully didn’t include Vacaville. I would take the best coaches from this list and project them to do best. So that means - Jesuit, Beckman, Mira Costa, Mountain View, Campolindo, Matilda Torres, San Clemente are the ones to watch out for.
Tullyrunner California Jesuit (SJ) CA 53 181.50 California Matilda Torres (CS) CA 122 174.67 California Arnold O. Beckman (SS) CA 127 173.83 California Woodbridge (SS) CA 127 174.08 California Campolindo (NC) CA 127 173.28 California Mountain View (CC) CA 138 172.56 California San Clemente (SS) CA 148 171.75 California Mira Costa (SS) CA 150 171.31 California ML King (SS) CA 150 171.52 California Ayala (SS) CA 160 170.01 California
Waitformoredata Jesuit 109 Beckman 238 Mira Costa 301 Vacaville 377 Mountain View 391 JSerra 415 Woodbridge 417 Campolindo 490 Matilda Torres 499 ML King 516 Ayala 526 San Clemente 527
I agree with tullyrunners that Jserra is going to be irrelevant. Very track oriented team. Interesting that Tully didn’t include Vacaville. I would take the best coaches from this list and project them to do best. So that means - Jesuit, Beckman, Mira Costa, Mountain View, Campolindo, Matilda Torres, San Clemente are the ones to watch out for.
The reason for the difference in ordering is because as the Tully site says above their regional rankings "I looked at cross country performances from 2024 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams based on my Speed Ratings." But my rankings equal weight XC and 3200m times converted to SR's (using almost exactly Tully's conversion) and also allow for an additional small bump based on 1600m times.
I don't necessarily think mine is better, because as I have studied things over the years, it is apparent that some portion of runners are just better at XC, some portion are just better at track, and some portion can do both and their times translate well. That is impossible to quantify and I don't even try. What mine does capture is runners that significantly improved in track or maybe were just injured in XC, so I think the roster of available scorers is a little more accurate.
I'm glad to see TullyRunners still doing all this work. Every year he says this may be the last year he does it. But as I have said many times, XC would be impossible for me to follow at a National or even all-of-California scale without SRs to compare.
Tullyrunner California Jesuit (SJ) CA 53 181.50 California Matilda Torres (CS) CA 122 174.67 California Arnold O. Beckman (SS) CA 127 173.83 California Woodbridge (SS) CA 127 174.08 California Campolindo (NC) CA 127 173.28 California Mountain View (CC) CA 138 172.56 California San Clemente (SS) CA 148 171.75 California Mira Costa (SS) CA 150 171.31 California ML King (SS) CA 150 171.52 California Ayala (SS) CA 160 170.01 California
Waitformoredata Jesuit 109 Beckman 238 Mira Costa 301 Vacaville 377 Mountain View 391 JSerra 415 Woodbridge 417 Campolindo 490 Matilda Torres 499 ML King 516 Ayala 526 San Clemente 527
I agree with tullyrunners that Jserra is going to be irrelevant. Very track oriented team. Interesting that Tully didn’t include Vacaville. I would take the best coaches from this list and project them to do best. So that means - Jesuit, Beckman, Mira Costa, Mountain View, Campolindo, Matilda Torres, San Clemente are the ones to watch out for.
Yeah I think winning the D4 state title would be a the best thing that JSerra boys can accomplish. They are vulnerable to an upset by Palos Verdes, who originally had solid 4 guys coming back, and then they added Sigworth (4:11 / 9:16) from Palisades which is a huge pickup, and they also have a 10:02 guy who was on JV last year which will add depth. So Palos Verdes could possibly steal the D4 state title from JSerra who took second at state twice in a row. We’ll have to see how everything plays out