Will add the context that I don’t like Hocker - but he has the tools to win gold. He needs to refine his positioning like he did tonight. Jakobs doubling and Kerr may have overcooked earlier this year.
I’d say if the race goes faster than 3:27.50 he’s not in it. Slower and he’ll be in the hunt.
USA for top 3 at Paris - will take down the Norwegian and Brits. Hocker time worth a 3.42 Mile - no idea why they run 1500, isnt that a communist distance?
Appreciate the insight, but I'm pretty sure the payoff structure of needing to push the pace to get the standard in a 1500m Trials final is actually Stag Hunt, not Prisoner's Dilemma.
A Stag Hunt game is one in which all the players can cooperate to earn a bigger prize (the stag), which can only be won if they all cooperate. However, they are unsure if one of the players will defect to earn a smaller prize (a rabbit) and ruin the hunt for the rest of them (they go hungry). So, every player is incentivized to defect to go for the smaller prize (which, at best, leaves all but one of them hungry, and even he does not eat as much as he could). The 1500 guys without the standard need to cooperate and share the lead to push the pace, but without being certain that they will get any help from their fellow standard-chasers, they are incentivized to settle for the smaller prize (a higher place in the Trials, but no chance of Olympics). The best situation for everyone is one in which everyone cooperates, as this has the highest payoff for every individual player.
Whereas in Prisoner's Dilemma, defecting when everyone else cooperates is the most preferable situation for every player, as this has the highest payoff for the defecting player. The difference is subtle, but important for thinking about why those without the standard really, really should chase it in the final if they think they have a chance. Unlike in a prisoner's dilemma, when people push the pace, all the guys with the standard win more.
Just thought an Ivy League-educated econ major should know the difference :)
Phenomenal production work by NBC to show us the top 4 jog the last lap in while the last spot was decided by one one-hundredth. Amazing work by Ellis
I know this is asking a lot, but with the major AI advances lately, I’m just gonna throw it out there- what if NBC could show the 400 and 800 splits in the 1500- WHILE the race was happening, like almost immediately. We would not have to look at our phones to see the live splits. That would be so cool.
I might put 2012 ahead of it. Manzano (got oly silver), Centro (already a medalist at that point, got 4th), Wheating (pretend he’s the Hobbs Kessler, young dude, except he had run 3:30 I believe)
I didn’t take into account what the team eventually did at the Olympics, only how strong the team was going into the Games.
We shall see on August 6th how this team compares!
Yes I know, although I think even going in, there is an argument for the 2012 squad. Centro had a medal, Manzano a DL win. The main argument for this team over that one is Nuguse’s 3:43.
Will add the context that I don’t like Hocker - but he has the tools to win gold. He needs to refine his positioning like he did tonight. Jakobs doubling and Kerr may have overcooked earlier this year.
I’d say if the race goes faster than 3:27.50 he’s not in it. Slower and he’ll be in the hunt.
3:28.5 feels more like the dividing line, and I’m high on Hocker. But Kerr, Nuguse and Jakob maybe separate if it’s that fast. We’ve never seen Hocker run in that range.
Grant Holloway, unlike Christian Coleman, does not have a problem with distance. Grant ran some fierce 4x4 anchor legs in college. He is so good that he gets too close to the sun, as it were, too close to the later hurdles because he is like a steam train out there. If they made each successive hurdle a meter further away within the same 110m, he'd smash the world record by .2s.
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