Assuming the jab is both safe and effective (highly suspect claims), why should anyone take it to combat a virus that produces much milder symptoms than the flu or a bad cold?
This is one of the most conservative estimates I've yet seen. The author, to his credit, admits as much:
Now. Let’s say there was a >0 (but very small let’s say 1/100,000,000) societal benefit to getting the vaccine, but getting the vaccine increased your probability of an adverse outcome by the same.
Would you get the vaccine?
what’s the effect size for probability = 1/100,000,000 societal benefit?
How does the distribution of effect sizes of adverse events compare to the same for COVID?
I assume you want everything to be equal as a test of altruism (total prob of normalized harm from vaccine = total prob of normalized societal benefit from vaccination)? But you gotta define these things when you ask clever questions :)
You’re waaaay overthinking this, bro. I kept it simple for simple minds (no offense).
what’s the effect size for probability = 1/100,000,000 societal benefit?
How does the distribution of effect sizes of adverse events compare to the same for COVID?
I assume you want everything to be equal as a test of altruism (total prob of normalized harm from vaccine = total prob of normalized societal benefit from vaccination)? But you gotta define these things when you ask clever questions :)
You’re waaaay overthinking this, bro. I kept it simple for simple minds (no offense).
Interested to see what your answer is.
Nice to have you back!
Unsure what the question is, so it's hard to give an answer.
Would I still get the vaccine if all the of the benefit was societal and an equal risk was solely personal? Depends how big the risk is. 1/1e9 chance of severe outcome, sure. 1/1e3? Probably not?
Luckily I haven't had to make sure purely altruistic decisions in life
Do you guys actually bother to look up the info you spout?
In the landmark trial, two vaccine recipients and four placebo recipients died.
It's nuts that the vaccine issue is such a a partisan issue. Initial trial and observational data suggested the vaccines were very effective and preventing spread of disease and reduction in disease severity. It made a lot of sense to get vaccinated in late 2020, early 2021. Over time, as the virus changed, the efficacy of preventing spread was reduced (or disappeared). The virulence of the virus has also dramatically decreased. These factors have made the vaccine (which is relatively safe as far as medical interventions go) less helpful and the risks may now outweigh the benefits for young, healthy individuals.
I'm a physician and was happy to get the initial series of vaccinations and did wind up getting a third dose, although I was less sure of how much good it would do at the time. I was pretty sick for two days after the third dose. By the time the fourth doses and boosters were rolling around, I looked at the numbers and made the decision not to get an additional vaccination based on the risks and benefits.
I actually wonder whether the extended mandates took so long to be reversed due to this predictable outcry of "see they didn't work after all!". The world changes. It's okay to change our approach as things change.
I actually wonder whether the extended mandates took so long to be reversed due to this predictable outcry of "see they didn't work after all!". The world changes. It's okay to change our approach as things change.
I actually wonder whether the extended mandates took so long to be reversed due to this predictable outcry of "see they didn't work after all!". The world changes. It's okay to change our approach as things change.
I actually wonder whether the extended mandates took so long to be reversed due to this predictable outcry of "see they didn't work after all!". The world changes. It's okay to change our approach as things change.
Great point
But in hindsight it makes me a genius to critique stuff while avoid the difficult things - making predictions under uncertainty for the future. Subscribe to my substack to see how smart I am!
Vinay Prasad, MD MPH; Physician & Professor Hematologist/ OncologistProfessor of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and MedicineAuthor of 450+ Peer Reviewed papers,...
Cambodia’s campaign to inoculate her people against the still deadly COVID-19 virus has reached just 349,325 in almost three months since the campaign kicked off on January 9 this year.
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