I predict a bit slower but I wouldn't bet against her.
I predict a bit slower but I wouldn't bet against her.
Armstrong-leaves wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
You are a writer of fiction, not of fact:
- You insist Brazier is at least 2 seconds faster over the 400 than he has ever run in a race over the distance.
- You say Mu will break the world mark for the 800, which has withstood all assault for nearly 40 years and which she is still some distance from.
- You claim Mu can already run a world-class mile when her best so far is only good college level.
It is all very well to suggest these events you forecast may come to pass but what apparently escapes you is that none of them have so far happened. It is entirely conjecture on your part. So far they exist solely in your imagination. And then you choose to deride those like myself who suggest they may never happen - as though I am arguing the sun does not rise and set each day.
When those runners accomplish these feats I shall accept them as fact - but not while they only swirl in your fevered imagination. Your talking will not make them happen.
FACT: Brazier split at least 45.7 twice as a 19-year old freshman. One was run an hour after his CR 800 of 1:43. I provided a link already. Here’s another instance:
https://12thman.com/news/2016/4/23/track-and-field-chase-wolfle-jazmine-fray-break-am-records-during-michael-johnson-invitational.aspxFACT: Most speed-based male athletes with good training improve their 400 capability when they are 24 compared with when they were 19. Brazier is demonstrably more developed, muscular, and powerful as a 24-year old than he was as a 19-year old and his times at 800 have improved considerably.
FACT: I have NEVER, here or elsewhere, said that Mu WILL break the 800 WR.
(Seriously, you made the charge; now back it up. Find where I said that in a prior post.)
While I do believe that Mu has the potential to do that, if I was forced to bet now, would probably say it won’t happen. To run something of that caliber will require everything coming together just right and that is really hard to pull off.
FACT: I have predicted that Mu will run under 4:27 tomorrow. If that counts as “world-class” to you, then I guess I’m predicting that Mu can already run a “world-class” mile.
I have not predicted that she will win the race or that she will break 4:20. I do think if she trained solidly for the mile for 2 years that she could have that kind of potential.
IMPORTANT SIDE NOTE: Despite your obliviousness to this obvious fact, human bodies are not static entities. They can be trained and adapt. Capacities can improve or shrink. Percentages of muscle fibers can change with sustained training, which is precisely why athletes and coaches are so deliberate when considering a transition up in distance. Moving to sustained marathon training, for example, likely will change an athlete’s physiology such that world-class performances at 5K and below are no longer possible.
What you don’t seem to get is that if Brazier changed his 28 miles per week training approach (with 8 miles being the longest he’s ever run in a single session!) to something more mile-specific in its volume and structure that his body would adapt accordingly. Capacities could be developed, muscle fiber percentages can change, etc. He would probably lose a bit of his 400 capacity in the process but he has far more of that to spare than pretty much every other miler in the world. He definitely could take seconds off his current 1500 PB if he made that switch.
To deny this is to hold that the miler training programs of the best coaches in the world don’t work and could never get him notable improvement at the distance.
Here’s an idea: take a survey of the top 1500 coaches in the world and ask them if they would like to work with Brazier at 1500 development or if they think it would be a waste of time and energy. What do you think would be the response when you make your “case” (read: mere assertion) that he had no world-class potential at 1500 so why bother? I’m guessing rolling on the floor laughter or a long incredulous stare.
Of course, why would Brazier go all in on that longer-term 1500/ mile project (yet) when he is clearly still the best 800 runner in the world when fully healthy?
And, likewise, why would Mu go all-in NOW on a similar project when she’s fast enough to potentially win 3 Olympic golds if the schedule allowed it?
But, again, I guarantee you that if Mu said she was only going to continue in the sport as a 1500/miler that every such coach in the country would be lining up to work with her. No credible coach would look at her, her talent, and her history since 14 and buy your theories that she could never be world-class at 1500.
Only a small number of posters bring up D. Brazier and his down hill 400m splits. Unless 400m split is first leg, it doesn't count. D. Brazier is not a 400m/800m guy. D. Brazier is not an elite 800m/1500m guy. D. Brazier is an 800m specialist. I wish posters would leave him alone to specialize in 800m. D. Brazier, is Ivo van Damme 2.0. D. Brazier could earn a 1500m Olympic &/or W.C. medal if 1200m were to split slower than 3:01.5. I wish A. Mu the best. I doubt she will race faster than 4:30 one mile. Did Europeans in 20th Century try to make their star female 800m runners 1500m runners? Usually not. Can posters appreciate A. Mu for being a legit 400m & 800m athlete?
I doubt it was the posters who entered her in the mile. She and her coach did that silly. Not discussing the event that a gold medalist is in would be ridiculous
versy tile wrote:
English is clearly not your first language because you are always incorrect when it comes to legal arguments and now you don't even understand a basic word. I am going to watch Milrose today. That hasn't happened yet but it can be verified.
fact - a thing proved to be true.
Prediction: that which is not yet fact. And may never be. That you say you are going to watch Milrose indicates you haven't done it. It isn't fact until you do. When some say Mu will run a certain time it isn't fact unless and until she does it. You're welcome.
mikael duglass wrote:
Armstrong-leaves wrote:
Geez, you’re insufferable. Stop ducking. Which stated fact was not a fact?!
I provided links on Brazier’s body (at least) twice covering 400 meters in at least 45.7 seconds as a 19-year old doubling back from an 800. And then I made a sensible argument for why the 24-year old version of Brazier running a fresh relay leg could run faster.
You can disagree with the second claim, I guess, despite the obvious (and readily explainable) improvement in performance among the vast majority of male 400/800 runners between 19 and 24. (Do you seriously think that male 400/800 runners peak at 19?!)
You cannot deny the first claim, though.
You also charged me with claiming Mu WILL break the 800 WR but have provided no evidence where I ever said that. Because I haven’t. Here or elsewhere. And I just gave you my prediction that she probably WON’T just because of the difficulty of getting everything arranged right at the right time. Find a quote where I said otherwise or STHU.
Finally, if you consider anything 4:26.99 or faster to be “world-class,” then, yes, I’m predicting that Mu will run a “world-class” performance in the mile tomorrow. If your standards for a “world-class” women’s mile are faster than that, then I’m not necessarily making that prediction.
Seriously, start responding in good faith and stop conveniently ducking the main point of everything I’m saying in response.
i've put forth similar arguments with this man before realising he is a barely functioning autist.
The fact that you put forth similar arguments explains why you got nowhere. They aren't arguments. They are musings.
You are identifying yourself wrote:
Armstrong-leaves wrote:
FACT: Brazier split at least 45.7 twice as a 19-year old freshman. One was run an hour after his CR 800 of 1:43. I provided a link already. Here’s another instance:
https://12thman.com/news/2016/4/23/track-and-field-chase-wolfle-jazmine-fray-break-am-records-during-michael-johnson-invitational.aspxFACT: Most speed-based male athletes with good training improve their 400 capability when they are 24 compared with when they were 19. Brazier is demonstrably more developed, muscular, and powerful as a 24-year old than he was as a 19-year old and his times at 800 have improved considerably.
FACT: I have NEVER, here or elsewhere, said that Mu WILL break the 800 WR.
(Seriously, you made the charge; now back it up. Find where I said that in a prior post.)
While I do believe that Mu has the potential to do that, if I was forced to bet now, would probably say it won’t happen. To run something of that caliber will require everything coming together just right and that is really hard to pull off.
FACT: I have predicted that Mu will run under 4:27 tomorrow. If that counts as “world-class” to you, then I guess I’m predicting that Mu can already run a “world-class” mile.
I have not predicted that she will win the race or that she will break 4:20. I do think if she trained solidly for the mile for 2 years that she could have that kind of potential.
IMPORTANT SIDE NOTE: Despite your obliviousness to this obvious fact, human bodies are not static entities. They can be trained and adapt. Capacities can improve or shrink. Percentages of muscle fibers can change with sustained training, which is precisely why athletes and coaches are so deliberate when considering a transition up in distance. Moving to sustained marathon training, for example, likely will change an athlete’s physiology such that world-class performances at 5K and below are no longer possible.
What you don’t seem to get is that if Brazier changed his 28 miles per week training approach (with 8 miles being the longest he’s ever run in a single session!) to something more mile-specific in its volume and structure that his body would adapt accordingly. Capacities could be developed, muscle fiber percentages can change, etc. He would probably lose a bit of his 400 capacity in the process but he has far more of that to spare than pretty much every other miler in the world. He definitely could take seconds off his current 1500 PB if he made that switch.
To deny this is to hold that the miler training programs of the best coaches in the world don’t work and could never get him notable improvement at the distance.
Here’s an idea: take a survey of the top 1500 coaches in the world and ask them if they would like to work with Brazier at 1500 development or if they think it would be a waste of time and energy. What do you think would be the response when you make your “case” (read: mere assertion) that he had no world-class potential at 1500 so why bother? I’m guessing rolling on the floor laughter or a long incredulous stare.
Of course, why would Brazier go all in on that longer-term 1500/ mile project (yet) when he is clearly still the best 800 runner in the world when fully healthy?
And, likewise, why would Mu go all-in NOW on a similar project when she’s fast enough to potentially win 3 Olympic golds if the schedule allowed it?
But, again, I guarantee you that if Mu said she was only going to continue in the sport as a 1500/miler that every such coach in the country would be lining up to work with her. No credible coach would look at her, her talent, and her history since 14 and buy your theories that she could never be world-class at 1500.
Only a small number of posters bring up D. Brazier and his down hill 400m splits. Unless 400m split is first leg, it doesn't count. D. Brazier is not a 400m/800m guy. D. Brazier is not an elite 800m/1500m guy. D. Brazier is an 800m specialist. I wish posters would leave him alone to specialize in 800m. D. Brazier, is Ivo van Damme 2.0. D. Brazier could earn a 1500m Olympic &/or W.C. medal if 1200m were to split slower than 3:01.5. I wish A. Mu the best. I doubt she will race faster than 4:30 one mile. Did Europeans in 20th Century try to make their star female 800m runners 1500m runners? Usually not. Can posters appreciate A. Mu for being a legit 400m & 800m athlete?
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
Repeat after me: block start times do not matter when we’re talking about one’s speed for 800 and above.
All that matters is how fast you can go once in motion. Hence, a flying start 400 time is far more relevant in assessing a middle-distance athlete’s long sprinting ability since it removes the technical element of block starts.
Starting from blocks is a highly technical skill that sprinters spend hundreds of hours working on each year.
No one in the 800 or mile uses blocks.
Brazier doesn’t practice block starts for the vast majority of any year. He doesn’t even race the open 400 very often so has very little experience with it in the pro setting. When he does, including his current official indoor PB, it is pretty much always an early season opener (as with today). And racing the 400 indoors is even more complicated and technical because you have the additional factor of tactics with multiple laps, changing lanes, pole position, etc.
(See last year’s NCAA Indoor 400, the only race Mu lost the entire season. She didn’t get pole position at 200 and then ended up running significantly extra distance in lane 2 for the entire race and finished with a time—51.03–that didn’t come close to reflecting her actual 400 fitness that day. This was confirmed when she soon after ran the fastest indoor relay split of all time in 49.54 and absolutely destroyed the woman who beat her in the open despite being behind at the relay exchange.)
So here’s the rub: if you think that an early season, block start, lane-changing, indoor two lap 400 tells you the full measure of what Brazier or anyone else could run for 400m outdoors in a single-lane, flying start, single lane race when fully sharp and peaked, then you’ve fundamentally disqualified yourself from the discussion. And certainly from coaching or advising any level of runner.
But, you know, all of you saying that Brazier is just an 800 specialist who lacks world-class 400 speed and could never be competitive in global 1500s have convinced me.
I mean, when most pure 800 specialists were 17, they probably also ran 15:25 for a XC 5K (in Michigan conditions) beating the time put up the same day by a guy (Morgan Beadlescomb) who just finished 5th at NCAA XC for a 10K.
They probably also later ran a 1500 in 3:35 (off of 30 miles per week training!) closing in 38 flat for 300 and in 25 flat for 200. And then walked off the track like it was nothing.
I mean. those guys are a dime a dozen!
A world-class 1500 coach would have to be a TOTAL IDIOT to want to coach a Donovan Brazier who wanted to go all-in on the 1500!!!
What a waste of time!!!
I mean it is SO OBVIOUS that there is NOTHING there to work with!!!
And as all of us know, if you undertook the best mile-specific training in the world for a year or two it absolutely wouldn’t work!!!
Bodies don’t change and can’t adapt to new stimuli!!! They have to fit into one of three (and ONLY three!) categories and then can never ever change!!!
There are NO training adaptations that could be produced by taking a guy who runs 30 miles a week and “long runs” of 8 miles and gradually increasing his volume and changing the inputs of his training!!!
My declaration that Brazier is just an 800 meter specialist makes it so!!!
From Gault:
“He is impossibly talented. As a high schooler, Brazier displayed unthinkable range, running 15:25 for 5,000 meters in cross country and splitting sub-46 on the 4×400 relay. Only eight Americans, period, have ever run faster for 800 meters than what Brazier ran as a 19-year-old college freshman…”
https://www.letsrun.com/2016/12/growing-pains-donavan-brazier-went-breaking-50-year-old-ncaa-record-bombing-olympic-trials-21-days-later/Correct me if I'm wrong but she switched out of the 800, right? This wasn't something she had been planning on doing for a long time?
Also she looks pretty tired after running that 438 mile. Everyone is saying how effortlessly it looked but if you watch her after the Finish she looked pretty winded.
Anyway with that in mind I'm betting against breaking 4:30. And I would bet the house that you won't break 4:25
Anyway last chance to throw down a prediction I'll say 431.2
Exactly. Didn’t even look that easy to begin with. If she didn’t look winded and wasn’t then 4:30 would be within this one. I expect her to get possibly last place. 4:30-4:35 for me
So, in his first race back after a serious injury, Donovan Brazier:
- gets off to an epically bad start out of blocks,
- looks totally out of sorts moving from lane 5 to lane 1 at the break,
- negotiates 4 curves,
- pulls up on the shoulder of a 44.40 multi-time Olympic medalist with less than 100 to go,
- has to tuck back in behind,
- and then moves out into lane 4 coming off the final turn through the finish.
Result? A PR of 46.55 and a third-place finish very narrowly behind Norwood and a guy currently ranked #10 in the world for the open 400m.
Is that good for a January indoor race?
Asking for a friend…
Glass broken wrote:
DNF. Tight turns, big field and long legs don't mix. I say she trips during the 2nd lap.
I predicted correctly! She didn't trip but she did DNF with a lap to go. What do I win? Shoes? LRC shirt?
Well, I’ll be the first to say that was tantalizing but unsatisfying…
Hitting 1209m in 5th place at 3:16.84 and only 1.2 seconds off a legit stud in Purrier-St. Pierre is certainly good. DNFing at some point around 1409m is…not.
I think it’s clear she had no chance (today) of running under 4:22. I would think she absolutely could have willed herself to a 73 for the final 400 if her life depended on it to get under 4:30. But I would guess she decided that it wasn’t worth the suffering. Maybe a different pacing strategy could have produced a solid mid-4:20s time but hitting 809m in 2:10 was a play for a legit chance to be in the mix.
Two points that seem obvious, though:
(1) In the hands of a great mile coach and given sufficient time to train for and adapt her body to the 1500, she clearly could hang with some very good milers in a year or two.
(2) She was not ducking the 800. She clearly could beat 2:01. And her racing strategy in the mile clearly indicated she was going for a high finish and not merely there to get a paycheck.
Bonus point:
(3) This was a VERY good day for Coach Dathan Ritzenhein and OAC!
Yeah dnf, rather than 438.... easily obliterate the American 1500m record? NO WAY!
Armstrongleave wrote:
Well, I’ll be the first to say that was tantalizing but unsatisfying…
Hitting 1209m in 5th place at 3:16.84 and only 1.2 seconds off a legit stud in Purrier-St. Pierre is certainly good. DNFing at some point around 1409m is…not.
I think it’s clear she had no chance (today) of running under 4:22. I would think she absolutely could have willed herself to a 73 for the final 400 if her life depended on it to get under 4:30. But I would guess she decided that it wasn’t worth the suffering. Maybe a different pacing strategy could have produced a solid mid-4:20s time but hitting 809m in 2:10 was a play for a legit chance to be in the mix.
Two points that seem obvious, though:
(1) In the hands of a great mile coach and given sufficient time to train for and adapt her body to the 1500, she clearly could hang with some very good milers in a year or two.
(2) She was not ducking the 800. She clearly could beat 2:01. And her racing strategy in the mile clearly indicated she was going for a high finish and not merely there to get a paycheck.
Bonus point:
(3) This was a VERY good day for Coach Dathan Ritzenhein and OAC!
Is this what you call “eating crow”? Talk about dissatisfying.
Ngl I was expecting 4:30-4:35 because I knew she wouldn’t get Under 4:30 after the last mile. She kept up with them for a longer time than I expected. After 1200m I was thinking “Maybe she’ll prove me wrong.” I was surprised that she gave in after 1400m. But eh not exactly extremely surprising given she ran 4:37 and didn’t look super good after
Dude give it up... she wanted her appearance fee, contractual fufillments, and didn't want to risk losing at the 800
She could run a a 4:35 Mi tops. No chance of running 4:25. Otherwise she would have just did it. She went all out for 1200 M and then stepped off the track
Armstrongleave wrote:
Well, I’ll be the first to say that was tantalizing but unsatisfying…
Hitting 1209m in 5th place at 3:16.84 and only 1.2 seconds off a legit stud in Purrier-St. Pierre is certainly good. DNFing at some point around 1409m is…not.
I think it’s clear she had no chance (today) of running under 4:22. I would think she absolutely could have willed herself to a 73 for the final 400 if her life depended on it to get under 4:30. But I would guess she decided that it wasn’t worth the suffering. Maybe a different pacing strategy could have produced a solid mid-4:20s time but hitting 809m in 2:10 was a play for a legit chance to be in the mix.
Two points that seem obvious, though:
(1) In the hands of a great mile coach and given sufficient time to train for and adapt her body to the 1500, she clearly could hang with some very good milers in a year or two.
(2) She was not ducking the 800. She clearly could beat 2:01. And her racing strategy in the mile clearly indicated she was going for a high finish and not merely there to get a paycheck.
Bonus point:
(3) This was a VERY good day for Coach Dathan Ritzenhein and OAC!
No chance of running 4:22 running 65s. My first time running 4:22 I basically went 66-68-68-60. I don’t think I would’ve had the endurance to get after it wart like 63-66-65 or whatever. I think this was a great showing.
Sorry, your prediction bears absolutely no resemblance to what happened in the race.
She did not trip and never even really looked like she was struggling with the tight turns or traffic so that was all a non-issue. And, according to the announcers, she stepped off somewhere near 1409m; hardly the second lap.
Literally no one in this discussion thread predicted a DNF with one lap to go.
It's amazing with all the Geniuses on the site that no one noticed that she was completely winded after her 4:38 mile
It looks get it right it's a freaking 4:38
She had to grab onto the railing to hold herself. Most of milers are barely winded after a mile... I mean they're winded but they're not woozy
The jury is still out on whether she can be a top 1K Runner as she has never ran a great time at that distance never mind the 1500
You forgot about me bro
Over confidence proved the death of her.
She didn't even finish the race. What, because she was tired? I find that almost disrespectful.
"Look at me, I can hang with the 1500 girls! Oh, wait, fcuk, this is tough. I'll just drop out because that looks better than coming last" .
Not impressed.