Jakob and Filip to run 800m on tuesday june 30th

Semiler wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

You know what I think about Jakob's personal bests? They are all in races where he followed someone else closely for 90% of the race. 800, 1500, mile, 2000 and 5000.

Obviously you have not seen the 2000m. It is on youtube. Solo race last 90 seconds.

1500m in Lausanne does not match "followed someone closely". Much of the race he was running by himself in the back with empty space in front, and then picking up and passing other runners.

mile run in Stanford was a tactical one with high speed at the beginning leaving Jakob far behind, and picking up and passing competitors mid race as the field slowed down. "followed someone closely" does not match.

5K London, attack from 11:30 with the intention of running solo all the way in for what would have been a PB.

90% was an exaggeration, but my point stands that they are time-trials where he was chasing the man in front the whole way. You get both a drafting and mental advantage.

In the 2000m it was 75% in the 5k it was 88%, in the 1500 he was directly behind Jake Wightman for 2:00 which is 60% and then he started to work through the field picking off other athletes.

Compared to Cheruiyot who is actually pushing the pacer for the first half and then pushing the pace entirely solo at the front by himself miles clear from anyone else to run 3:28.

Like several other commenters here I estimated that Jakob would likely run his 800 in the region of 1.46x. That turned out to be correct.

I believe he is in the region of being a 1500-5k runner, since he clearly has endurance but is not overly quick - unlike Ovett and Coe (or even Cheruyiot). The 800 will be at best a warm-up event for him, to sharpen his speed for longer races.

I suspect his relative lack of pace (I very much doubt he could get below 23s for 200m) will limit his potential at championship level over 1500m. He may one day medal but I'm not picking him to win. That raises the question of how much room is there for his improvement. I think that he is a prodigy who trained intensively in his early years and so may now be nearing his peak. I don't think he will get much faster in his 20's. Maybe 3.28-29 over the 1500. To run faster than that he would have to be on EPO, like those before him.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Maybe 3.28-29 over the 1500. To run faster than that he would have to be on EPO, like those before him.

You think he does 3.30 when 18 being clean? And 3.28 later being clean?

So on EPO he would run 3.24, do you really believe this?

They are all on the same things

This discussion is useless. For example, it's clear that Bernard Lagat, if wanted to prepare in SPECIFIC way the distance of 800m, had the talent for running under 1'45". The problem is that, with this type of preparation, he NEVER had the possibility to run 3'26", because his main talent was in the aerobic area.

Bernard, in spite of his 1'46", had a running technique allowing him to have a chenge of speed that athletes of 1'43" don't have. For example, Alan Webb ran 1'43"84, but never could win with Bernard, since the speed of Alan was a progression, the speed of Lagat a strong and sudden change.

The final sprint is not connected with the speed of the athlete (when we speak about athletes having similar PB), but depends on his aerobic level, allowing him to be more fresh, and on mechanical reasons. Who is able to run with high knees changing the frequency of his strides can change the speed in few meters, who doesn't have high frequency, but long strides, has to use progression, and in tactical races never can succeed, also if his times in 400 and 800m are very much better.

Therefore, we have to see at the general picture, and discussing about "how much fast can run in 800m a specialist of 1500m IF prepares the distance" is a useless and hypothetical waste of time, because the technical choice for athletes of high aerobic level is to work for extending their specific endurance, and not for increasing their speed.

For example, in the case of Bernard, 1'46" gives him the position 728 all-time in the World, and a hypothetical 1'44"5 should give him the position 200, while his PB in 5000m (12'53"60) put him in top 40 in the World, and, because of his final speed, the event gave him one Gold and two Silver in WCh (2007 - 2009 - 2011) : which type of training do you think he had to chose ?

So, I think that Jakob can run his next 800m maybe after 2-3 years, like a tests of speed, instead looking to improve his threshold in order to run under 12'50" in 5000m. And, believe me, if 2020 was a normal season without COVID, probably he never had the idea to run 800m in some international meeting.

Impala31 wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Maybe 3.28-29 over the 1500. To run faster than that he would have to be on EPO, like those before him.

You think he does 3.30 when 18 being clean? And 3.28 later being clean?

So on EPO he would run 3.24, do you really believe this?

They are all on the same things

What kind of.logic is this? What is absurd about believing that somebody on EPO could run 2 seconds faster than somebody ran on EPO 30 years ago?

It's the same argument that Casual Onserver often uses to claim Coe and Cram must have been blood dopjng. 'Coe and Cram must have been blood doping or else it means they could have ran 3:24 blood doped, which is absurd.'

No it's not. It's absurd to think that El G was four seconds faster than Coe and Cram only a decade before him, naturally.

Impala, with the type of training Jakob uses, having the goal to increase his Threshold, and with the quantity of specific volume in this direction, EPO can't give any advantage,

I know that again this can create a revolution, but the reality is that EPO can only replace what you don't do under high aerobic point of view.

Many here don't understand the difference between the various kinds of doping.

The doping of East Germany and Soviet Union, based on steroids in big quantity, was effective for supporting the ability to work more : throwers, jumpers and sprinters of those Countries were able to train 5-6 hours per day, and the increase of muscle strength was possible only increasing their training, and the increase of training was possible only taking steroids, that increased the protein synthesis and helped during the recovery.

Instead, EPO can REPLACE the training athletes don't do, and for that reason can give more advantage to specialists of short distances, who the most part of time don't like, and refuse, to train for increasing their Aerobic Power.

If you see some athlete working very hard with lactic tests on track of high intensity, never using some fast continuous run or long intervals for enhancing the Lactic Threshold, able to maintain for all the season the same level of performances, this athlete is probably doped.

If you see athletes alternating long periods of hard training in direction of the Aerobic Power, for all the season, in percentage very much higher than the Lactic workouts, this athlete is clean.

Also if many Kenyans were caught for doping, it seems that people here put everybody in the same pot, connecting every doped with "Blood Manipulation" and EPO.

Nothing more wrong : among the 120 cases at the moment under disciplinary proceedings, only 9 are for EPO, while 73 are connected with Anabolic Agents (and the most part of doped Kenyans are banned for steroids or whereabouts failures).

It's time to finish to believe that researches with small number of subjects, everybody of them very far from the level of top runners, without any connection with type and level of training of the best, can have some value, if not for analogous categories of subjects.

It's time to study the effects of training, for understanding the effects of doping (sometimes equal zero). And don't forget I speak SPECIFICALLY about EPO, not general doping.

Coevett wrote:

And for the benefit of the visually impaired.

Funny how you use that line against the other poster and yet fail to admit that you lied about the 800m race.

You have zero credibility, as seen on the Strava thread and on the countless lies you tell on a daily basis.

Anyway, wait until the African runners can race normally again and we will see. ;)

I've just watched some of that YouTube video you linked claiming that Jakob will break WRs.

Comparing him to Ngeny? Really? Just because Ngeny also had PBs of 1:46 and 4:50 2k?

Ngeny split 1:44 in a 1000m WR attempt twice. Ran 2:11.9 and 2:12.7. He had a lot of speed to burn. Outkicked world class athletes on the regular.

Jakob doesn't.

The run in Lausanne did not have the aspect of a time trial. It was a good diamond league race. Of course you will have a mental advantage of passing others because you are more fit. I do not see any problem with that.

No, in the 2000m it was 65.52% of the time. The first 10 seconds and last 90 seconds Jakob was in the lead. That makes a total of over 1/3 of the race a solo run. The last 90 seconds with Jakob in the lead lead to a massive negative split. Hence, Jakob managed to squeeze a less-than-okay pacing into a PB and European record due to a magnificent solo run.

No, the first time Jakob was even close to Jake Weightman was 1:10 in the race after having passed Adel Mechaal a few seconds before. Maybe you are mixing up Adel and Jake as they are dressed in the same gear. However it is true that Jakob follows the back of Jake for lets say 40 seconds (as the images does not show the exact timestamps). However he drops Jake behind 20 seconds before the pacer quits the race.

Coevett wrote:

What kind of.logic is this? What is absurd about believing that somebody on EPO could run 2 seconds faster than somebody ran on EPO 30 years ago?

It's the same argument that Casual Onserver often uses to claim Coe and Cram must have been blood dopjng. 'Coe and Cram must have been blood doping or else it means they could have ran 3:24 blood doped, which is absurd.'

No it's not. It's absurd to think that El G was four seconds faster than Coe and Cram only a decade before him, naturally.

Coevett "logic": It's absurd to think that El G was four seconds faster than Coe and Cram only a decade later naturally but somehow it's also absurd NOT to think that Jakob can run four seconds faster than Tim and Elijah just a couple years later naturally.

I agree the discussion is useless. You have effectively argued that to best succeed over 1500m Lagat had to remain slower than his potential best over 800m. What a ridiculous argument. It is refuted by any number of names but here's a few - Snell, Ryun, Ovett, Coe, Cram. (All, interestingly, before the EPO boom).

And once again we hear how EPO doesn't really work for athletes who are "properly trained". Drivel. And meanwhile, so many African runners continue to use it.

Armstronglivs wrote:

I agree the discussion is useless. You have effectively argued that to best succeed over 1500m Lagat had to remain slower than his potential best over 800m. What a ridiculous argument. It is refuted by any number of names but here's a few - Snell, Ryun, Ovett, Coe, Cram. (All, interestingly, before the EPO boom).

He is talking about 5000m and not 1500m. That optimizing for a 5K would reduce the potential best for 800m isn't that radical of an argument is it?

Impala31 wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Maybe 3.28-29 over the 1500. To run faster than that he would have to be on EPO, like those before him.

You think he does 3.30 when 18 being clean? And 3.28 later being clean?

So on EPO he would run 3.24, do you really believe this?

They are all on the same things

I didn't say that I think he is clean. But I doubt that he is currently using EPO - or he could risk being caught, as so many Kenyans are. What I do think is that no one who has run faster than 3.28 has done so clean. The same would apply to Jakob. I don't believe he is capable of anything like 3.24, but I do think he would have to be doped to the gills on EPO to run faster than 3.28x - as were those athletes before him who achieved that.

Lagat did run the 800m a bunch of times in 1:46, but he also completed the last 800m of a 1500m in 1:46 (Athens 2004, I believe, where he almost beat El G) and even more crucially, he closed a 12:59 5000m in 51, beating Bekele. For that reason, I suspect that he was running those 800m's for his 1500m, not to see what he could do, but more like speedwork and to practice closing the 1500m at his best. Lagat, as you say, had great acceleration. You see it at the beginning of races, where he could always immediately get into perfect position behind the pacers, and in his finishes. Alan Webb actually had even better acceleration in his prime when he was healthy, as evidenced by his three defeats of Lagat and one of Baala in 2007 (Lagat was in that race too). He was also, at his best, able to get into great position at the start behind the pacers, like Lagat. In New York, at US Champs, and in Paris, he destroyed them suddenly with a blast of sprinting power. But he got a bit injured dropping his 800m pr from 1:46 to 1:43.84 after his AR in the mile, and then was ill at World's in 2007, explaining why Lagat and many others toasted him in the kick.

Webb's 3:30 in Paris over Baala:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BZvfkk7-5Y

Webb over Lagat at USA's in 2007, with early footage of him outkicking Lagat in NYC that month:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5i_xNDhOaM

Semiler wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

I agree the discussion is useless. You have effectively argued that to best succeed over 1500m Lagat had to remain slower than his potential best over 800m. What a ridiculous argument. It is refuted by any number of names but here's a few - Snell, Ryun, Ovett, Coe, Cram. (All, interestingly, before the EPO boom).

He is talking about 5000m and not 1500m. That optimizing for a 5K would reduce the potential best for 800m isn't that radical of an argument is it?

He was talking about the 1500. He said if Lagat had trained to beat 1.45 for the 800 he would never have been able to achieve 3.26 for the 1500. Any number of great 800/1500 runners have shown that argument is false. There is nothing incompatible in training to compete in both. Many of the best 1500 runners excelled also over the shorter distance. Lagat's greater success over the 5000m compared to the 800m simply shows that he was a 1500/5000 type runner.

Armstronglivs wrote:

I agree the discussion is useless. You have effectively argued that to best succeed over 1500m Lagat had to remain slower than his potential best over 800m. What a ridiculous argument. It is refuted by any number of names but here's a few - Snell, Ryun, Ovett, Coe, Cram. (All, interestingly, before the EPO boom).

You are so ignorant it hurts. It hurts because of your arrogance, not because there is anything wrong about not knowing one thing and accepting facts from those with more knowledge.

How many runners have you coached? Exactly.

I could give you several examples (two coached by me) of runners who have their 1500 times hindered if they train specifically for the 800 but you wouldn't listen.

No, you know so much better than Renato Canova.

Waiting for your usual insults.

i am not sure. mr. canova is right, ithink.

look at the data of many elite 800m runners (sub 1:46) and you will see that the 1500m pb range is quite big. some seem to be in trouble to break 3:45/3:40, some don't. i have experienced on my own that after just a few weeks of 400m speed work in favour of getting my 800m time down i have had difficulties with my 1500m performance, it slowed down significantly. and i am by no means an elite performer. i can imagine very easily the problems for the good ones to find the balance. this needs first class coaching, without guarantee.

wisenheimer at work wrote:

i am not sure. mr. canova is right, ithink.

look at the data of many elite 800m runners (sub 1:46) and you will see that the 1500m pb range is quite big. some seem to be in trouble to break 3:45/3:40, some don't. i have experienced on my own that after just a few weeks of 400m speed work in favour of getting my 800m time down i have had difficulties with my 1500m performance, it slowed down significantly. and i am by no means an elite performer. i can imagine very easily the problems for the good ones to find the balance. this needs first class coaching, without guarantee.

Don't even try it. Mr. Armstrong knows better than Renato.