Damn dude, I'm holding a huge short position right now and even I'm not that pessimistic. Been having a great time on this hilarious price action and goofy mid day reversals. I saw people are fleeing equities as fast as possible too, pretty sure we're headed for a bit of an equities bust here (but not the 60% Igy wants, too many powerful people with interests). Anyways, I'm just trying to collect the crumbs market makers throw at me!
Racket wrote:
Damn dude, I'm holding a huge short position right now and even I'm not that pessimistic. Been having a great time on this hilarious price action and goofy mid day reversals. I saw people are fleeing equities as fast as possible too, pretty sure we're headed for a bit of an equities bust here (but not the 60% Igy wants, too many powerful people with interests). Anyways, I'm just trying to collect the crumbs market makers throw at me!
The reason the markets are selling off is the CENTRAL BANKS ARE LOSING CONTROL and not the other way around. In regards to a 60% drop in the market it is not so much what I want, it is what market history and valuations point as a direction.
CD ladders look better every day,
DGTD contrarian indicator alert wrote:
Bloodbath wrote:
Looks like today is turning into a bloodbath.
If we don't turn around by closing, we could have a real build up of panic over the week-end with a real massacre upon opening on Monday
Right on cue. Literally 5 minutes after this was posted, the daily trend reversed. Well done!
It reversed for 5 minutes.
Back to steady downward trend.
The Fed or someone has to do or say something that will reverse the trend for a NY minute.
DGTD Contrarian Indicator has been anything but lately.
Central banks are just groups of people. Groups of people, including CB’s, are not losing control, rather they are fighting among themselves as to who gets to control what.
I’m not pessimistic, I’m just an observer. Things happen because of the number of people, their distribution, natural factors, and competitive factors. It is sometimes called the tide of history, and we live in an age wherein the development of the individual hasn’t kept pace with the development of other human constructs. Individuals are still 19th-century people, at best—made for another world, another time. The shxt has already hit the fan. I am living out my life and planning for a changed future.
Not pessimistic, just realistic of the inevitability of history. I don’t even care about the markets anymore in the way that I used to, even as I use them sometimes—but they have a different meaning for me now, as an observable proxy for other events.
Also, I have come to believe that you can learn more about a person by seeing how they respond to money, than by any other single situation.
The assets those people control are all going down, so their supposed grip on that narrative is slipping. Which gives credence to my view that CBs were foolish to push monetary policy to extremes.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The assets those people control are all going down, so their supposed grip on that narrative is slipping. Which gives credence to my view that CBs were foolish to push monetary policy to extremes.
That’s not your view. It’s Hussman’s. You merely parrot whatever he says.
Gladly give him credit for being right. But it is a common view of rational thinkers that driving the cost of money to zero is foolish.
But what should we expect from you nameless troll?
Just closed my stupidly over leveraged short position for 10% profit. Taking my money out and going home, done for good until I decide to buy back in on Monday.
Maserati, you a fan of metals did you say? Igy and I think PALL might be good (or me at least). Also might get in on some miner ETFs
No time but will write later. Igy everything is relative. Racket i am a fan of tobacco stocks like IMBBY to hold not trade, for the right price. Will talk metals later
[quote]Racket wrote:
Damn dude, I'm holding a huge short position right now and even I'm not that pessimistic. Been having a great time on this hilarious price action and goofy mid day reversals. I saw people are fleeing equities as fast as possible too, pretty sure we're headed for a bit of an equities bust here (but not the 60% Igy wants,.....
Pretty sure this is not want he "wants" but rather what he believes is happening.
The Dow fell @ 90% from 9/3/29 (381.17) to 7/8/32 (41.22).
I believe this next crash will see the market drop more than 60%.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
DGTD Contrarian Indicator has been anything but lately.
Believe me, the market has to drop a lot more than this for you to be rubbing equity purchases made over the past 6 or 7 years in peoples faces. I'll give you one year. Although, far short of 60%
agip wrote:
and before we say the market is going to zero, let's remember that we were up 20+% last year, stocks are flat for the year, and valuations are the lowest in around 4 years.
In two months, after another excellent earnings season we could easily look back at this and wonder why we didn't load up on cheap US blue chips. It might look so obvious in retrospect.
or not.
My current hypothesis is that china might be blowing up, which is messing with all the financial instruments out there. Banks, bonds, etc. They have so many bad loans...now that their econ is slowing to normal speed, many of those loans will go bad, putting a lot of banks under. Except the gov't will paper over the losses, making things tricky. I'd guess a lot of people are selling assets around the world, getting cash on the balance sheet to deal with a possible china debt blowup.
the q is if the debt blowup there spreads to also highly indebted US and Europe.
agip, how'd you do today? I liked your collection of predictions. I always like looking at CNBC headlines from one day to the next :
BEAR MARKET IMMANENT
GREAT TIME TO BUY NOW
WE'RE ALL LITERALLY F*CKED
DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS YUUUGEE BULL RUN STARTING NOW.
Anyways, I like your China theory but we're a lot better off. They're basically 2007 version of us.
purple martin wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
DGTD Contrarian Indicator has been anything but lately.
Believe me, the market has to drop a lot more than this for you to be rubbing equity purchases made over the past 6 or 7 years in peoples faces. I'll give you one year. Although, far short of 60%
You sound angry. I am sorry your gambling, oh I mean trading, hasn’t worked out for you recently.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
purple martin wrote:
Believe me, the market has to drop a lot more than this for you to be rubbing equity purchases made over the past 6 or 7 years in peoples faces. I'll give you one year. Although, far short of 60%
You sound angry. I am sorry your gambling, oh I mean trading, hasn’t worked out for you recently.
No Anger here! Based on your definition of "recently", I've done very well.
I assume your massive drop "SOON" comment after several years is still in play.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
purple martin wrote:
Believe me, the market has to drop a lot more than this for you to be rubbing equity purchases made over the past 6 or 7 years in peoples faces. I'll give you one year. Although, far short of 60%
You sound angry. I am sorry your gambling, oh I mean trading, hasn’t worked out for you recently.
hey don't hate on us gamblers. I didn't just leverage 12k for a super sweet 10% return (lol I have a problem) to get hated on!
Speaking to leveraging, i've used this downturn to gradually reduce my leveraged positions in ETF to just 16% of what it was a couple of months ago. I've moved a little of this into non-levarged ETFs, but mostly parked it in cash.
I'm watching PALL, too, and may try a bite next week. Watching it for now.
seattle prattle wrote:
Speaking to leveraging, i've used this downturn to gradually reduce my leveraged positions
pffft OK well I'll try to wave hi from my super yacht while you're standing on the beach
LOL. Do understand that i've used leveraging for the last 10 years of the best bull market in our lifetime to do, well, to do "well."
There's a time to get out of leveraged positions, though, and one thing that kills returns of the leveraged ETFs is volatility. Plenty of that now, and i've also been noticing how high fees and lack of dividend that would otherwise be available in non-levarged ETFs also made me want to get out.
If we had a believable rebound, I wouldn't hesitate for a second to buy back, though.
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You sound angry. I am sorry your gambling, oh I mean trading, hasn’t worked out for you recently.
hey don't hate on us gamblers. I didn't just leverage 12k for a super sweet 10% return (lol I have a problem) to get hated on!
Exactly! Especially those from 2011 - 2017