Down goes the Dow

I took a look at the charts this morning. Lots of conflicting stuff, but the DJIA and SP500 continue to look weak regardless of short term swings.

Gold miners (GDX) on the other hand, is pending a major (20%-40%) move signal in the next few days, but it's too early to tell the direction. The Bollinger Band (20 day trading range) is as narrow as it has been in two years. Every move after this "squeeze" has led to a move of 20% or more in GDX since 2012. Right now, the most likely direction is up, but as I said, no signal yet.

Maserati wrote:

Monday, half an hour after open, DJIA tanks with a small rebound so far. Traders must be making a in this environment.

Gold creeping up...

are traders making money? Maybe the high frequency 'puters, but hedge funds have been so completely awful for several years - over the last 12 months the CSFB hedge fund index is up just 3% while world stocks are up 15%.

the 'smart' money has been very unsmart for years - never believing this 5 year long rally.

Gold is up ja, I still have a loss on mine, but only 1% or so.

great article I think all investors should read - it gets to the heart of this question - what does it mean to be 'smart' in the investing business? is it being cynical and seeing the bad news behind every earnings report? or is it being brave enough to see what is going well and believe it is genuine?

And guys like the original poster, who think they are too smart to believe the hype, so they stay out - this is for them.

Anyway, it's a good read and worth your time:

Here's the conlusion:

Being optimistic about the U.S., as I have learned, means you are naïve, simple-minded, even deluded. Being pessimistic means you're worldly, seasoned, even downright smart. Nobody can put anything over on a pessimist. Just ask all those people who sold their stock when the financial crisis hit. They understood that the U.S. would never come back. And, for them, it never did.

Mr. Kurtzman, a senior fellow at the Milken Institute, is the author of "Unleashing the Second American Century" (PublicAffairs, 2014).

Maserati wrote:

Monday, half an hour after open, DJIA tanks with a small rebound so far. Traders must be making a killing in this environment.

Gold creeping up...

Down 8.5 points at 11:20 - this could be the end!!!!

Click here to see our chart:

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/DowJones2014551735.gif

Pivot: 16245

Our preference: LONG positions above 16245 with targets @ 16575 & 16650.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 16245 will call for 16110 & 15880.

Comment: technically, the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.

Trend: ST Ltd Downside; MT Bullish

Key levels Comment

16725* Intraday resistance

16650* Intraday resistance

16575* Intraday resistance

16432 Last

16245** Intraday pivot point

16110** Intraday support

15880** Intraday support

---

TRADING CENTRAL is a commentary service specialising in technical analysis.

if you get barred by the WSJ paywall, just google the headline - you can usually get in the back way by doing that.

I tried posting the whole article but the lrc filters accused me of not contributing positively and wouldn't let me post.

Getting Depressed About U.S. Success

is the headline

Bumping due to spam.

Dow in positive territory.

That article is rambling and fumbling b.s.

Is he being sarcastic regarding pessimism?

WTF is he exactly saying? I don't much care, it's not worth my time to try to unravel the incoherent and tangled web he has built.

What a crappy piece of writing, even for consumer purposes.

Randy--

How are you YTD? Do you actually use technical analysis?

I don't, and I never would. I know some "wealth managers" who swear by it, and I consider them all to be simpletons. Notably, they are all managing other people's money.

I know one in particular whose family has a bunch of money, that they won't let him touch. They make him "work" for a living, giving "investment advice" to other people that they would never use themselves.

I know several people who also run fantasy portfolios for their own amusement, using technical analysis to guide their imaginary trades, while having their actual money in index funds and mutual funds.

Also, I love the technical lexicon.

It reminds me of that old saying by W.C. Fields:

"If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshlt."

lol, yes, DJIA now up 2 points. And yes, I was referring to the high-speed traders making the money. Swings of 100 points in a matter of hours or minutes are colossal and deep, especially when they can be predicted, as this morning's might have been based upon foreign markets.

Heck, you don't even need serious high speed on this time scale, all you need is to have your finger on the button.

It's getting progressively easier to ignore your posts.

4% growth for Q2 here we come! Please stay out of the market just a bit longer. We'll need a few folks to buy back in at DOW 17K to push it further up the chart.

Thanks for your support.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101642225

Maserati wrote:

It's getting progressively easier to ignore your posts.

This from a man who wrote:

"No, I own what I write.

You know what? It's about time I put some rigor into that measurement. I might do it over the weekend and let you know. Unlike core CPI, I include volatiles because there are ways to systematize their fluctuations. PCEPI will give some clues.

I also include taxes.

Your criticism is noted and welcome, and your abrasive style is appreciated."

???????????????????????

Let Us Begin wrote:

Maserati wrote:

It's getting progressively easier to ignore your posts.

This from a man who wrote:

"No, I own what I write.

You know what? It's about time I put some rigor into that measurement. I might do it over the weekend and let you know. Unlike core CPI, I include volatiles because there are ways to systematize their fluctuations. PCEPI will give some clues.

I also include taxes.

Your criticism is noted and welcome, and your abrasive style is appreciated."

???????????????????????

my guess is that maser seems to love facts and analysis... only when they prove his views.

Both the Dow and the SP500 made bullish candlestick patterns today. This would forecast rising prices for the next few trading sessions, which could test or set new highs in both indexes. It will be interesting to see if this happens.

agip wrote:

Gold is up ja, I still have a loss on mine, but only 1% or so.

Agip,

Did you override your system this month to stay in gold? Was it 1% below the 200-day or did it just miss your sell point?

truly, I cannot wait for you imposter people to tire of your game and go away.

Four years ago, hedge fund owner John Paulson ,one of the luckiest men in the world, made his predictions for 2014:

Low double-digit inflation by 2012, killing the bond market, and restoring strength to equities and gold.

2% GDP growth for 2011 and 2012

Gold hitting $2,400 to $4,000

Read more:

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-paulson-gold-at-4000-double-digit-inflation-real-estate-2010#ixzz30wTbD7ky

Obvi he got a lot wrong.

Inflation is barely existing - 1 or 2%. Massive miss there.

The bond market was not killed - it has been pretty good since 2010.

Stocks have been good - he got that one.

He got GDP growth about right

Gold he flunked massively - it's at $1300 now, half where he predicted.

Guess he shouldn't have denominated 80% of his assets in gold.

Point is that predictions are worthless - he got one right (housing crash) and it made him over confident.

lol

I never said I would POST any of my work. And I won't.

agip, I can tell you're quite young. As you get older and have been around the block a few times, a funny thing happens, that other people my age will corroborate: you are happy and amused when facts CONTRADICT your pre-existing views!

At some point you think you've seen it all, and you're right--pretty much. But there are sometimes real gems, that you really don't expect, and they make things really worthwhile.

And to the other poster upthread, I would have no qualms buying back in to some extent at 17k, depending again on conditions prevailing at the time.

well then wrote:

agip wrote:

Gold is up ja, I still have a loss on mine, but only 1% or so.

Agip,

Did you override your system this month to stay in gold? Was it 1% below the 200-day or did it just miss your sell point?

why do posts disappear from this thread? it seems random.

I answered this already but then it was deleted.

Anyway, on april 30 gold was within a penny or so of the 1% wiggle room, so I kept the trade on.

I am down 1.9% on the trade - could be worse.

I am selling some of the small caps I bought a year ago - taking in some big profits. Putting it back into large caps - this 15 year small cap run has to end pretty soon. Unless it doesn't.