Down goes the Dow

Severely atypical?

ESL?

Klondike5 wrote:

Sally Vixxxens wrote:

There's your buy signal, folks. That's as good of a guarantee for a bull market as you're going to get.

Now there 's some good thinking. I have such a knowledge of the future or power over the market that I am misleading you all into selling so I can profit. You got me Sally

Sally said "buy", not "sell", K5.

Klondike5 wrote:

Another good beating.

Panic over the week-end.

A real sell off on Monday

K5 nails it again - this was posted on 4/11. Since then the SP500 has risen six consecutive days, or 3.5%.

You win, K5, you win. You are the best.

The only thing that peer review validates is that your research design, methodology, analysis, etc., comport with the standards currently prevailing in your chosen field of research, as exemplified by the attitudes of the reviewers.

I know all about it, I was heavily involved in peer review in fields where it actually matters.

The only validation that I need is my own satisfaction with the results of my investing. I have no desire to contribute to the "fields" of economics or finance, as they currently exist. Furthermore, I have no desire to comport with the currently prevailing standards, for their own sake, or for the sake of something valuable like replicability.

That is not to say that it won't be transparent or replicable--however, like every initiative I have ever seen that was aimed at maximizing personal wealth through investment (other than some purely statistical efforts, none of which has yet borne significant fruit as a predictive tool), it will be loaded with value judgments and assumptions--which is fine, because they are my own, and have been validated through experience. I have done very well (so far), and I'm no spring chicken.

Peer review has absolutely no utility in such an enterprise.

Maserati wrote:

The only thing that peer review validates is that your research design, methodology, analysis, etc., comport with the standards currently prevailing in your chosen field of research, as exemplified by the attitudes of the reviewers...

In other words, all that it does is help to determine the validity of the conclusions. Gee, that's all?

I do like the added, "as exemplified by the attitudes of the reviewers" though. Nice touch!

BI, I can tell that you have no idea what you're talking about, and that you have little to no experience with publishing in peer-reviewed journals.

Do you think everybody on this board is a gullible and insecure 13-year-old?

Dow opens with a small fall and rebound, nothing to see here folks.

K5, a question: At what point, if any, would you be prepared to decide that your strategy is a failure? I agree that it is not necessary to determine a time frame when you begin to act on the strategy, but at some arbitrary time you have to make a decision. Have you already made that decision? Will you never get back into the markets? What if, in a year from now, the DJIA is up another 20% and everything looks good, the elections go well, China is on its feet, etc.? Will you never get back in unless it falls 50%?

Amidst all the b.s. about the bad weather this winter, Delta's profit jumps:

http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201404236588/delta-air-lines-profit-jumps-despite-weather-troubles.aspx

Oh, but not as much as it otherwise would have, right? Give me a break.

Maserati wrote:

BI, I can tell that you have no idea what you're talking about, and that you have little to no experience with publishing in peer-reviewed journals.

Do you think everybody on this board is a gullible and insecure 13-year-old?...

And you would once again be wrong.

Nice try though, trying to project your own insecurity onto others.

agip wrote:

Klondike5 wrote:

Another good beating.

Panic over the week-end.

A real sell off on Monday

K5 nails it again - this was posted on 4/11. Since then the SP500 has risen six consecutive days, or 3.5%.

You win, K5, you win. You are the best.

Is anyone keeping a list of K5's predictions?

RO wrote:

agip wrote:

K5 nails it again - this was posted on 4/11. Since then the SP500 has risen six consecutive days, or 3.5%.

You win, K5, you win. You are the best.

Is anyone keeping a list of K5's predictions?

Difficult to score this one since there have been so many fake K5 posts.

If folks would drop the handle stealing it would make my job a whole lot easier.

Now down 22 on the day. Another day of fiddle-faddle.

Hey, what about all of those great earnings?

Maserati wrote:

Now down 22 on the day. Another day of fiddle-faddle.

Hey, what about all of those great earnings?

yr starting to sound like a troll, maser, trying to provoke rather than reason.

not sure what you are getting at about the earnings, but the SP500 is up 6 straight days and only slightly down on the 7th.

Here's a headline: S&P 500 Earnings Beat Rate Rises to 75% After Boeing Gain

but year over year the earnings gain isn't much.

anyone else notice that skechers stock is up 12% from its low on Monday? They had some good earnings + Boston.

The stock is up 335% from its 2012 lows.

I noticed Sketchers, it was big news.

I know how the markets have been doing agip, thanks. In my comment about earnings, I was wondering if anybody was realizing any significant dividends on their equity portfolios? Somebody must do dividend analyses on all sorts of funds...

What about you agip? Aren't you heavily into a Vanguard fund?

agip wrote:

anyone else notice that skechers stock is up 12% from its low on Monday? They had some good earnings + Boston.

The stock is up 335% from its 2012 lows.

Such a publicity stunt to have Meb go to the front of the race like that...

Maserati wrote:

I noticed Sketchers, it was big news.

I know how the markets have been doing agip, thanks. In my comment about earnings, I was wondering if anybody was realizing any significant dividends on their equity portfolios? Somebody must do dividend analyses on all sorts of funds...

What about you agip? Aren't you heavily into a Vanguard fund?

realizing dividends? literally? Well yes, thanks. I get paid dividends every quarter from most funds I own.

What do you mean dividend analysis? Is that a flagpole reference?

What's gotten into you man? You talking nonsense today.

My biggest single holding is VTI - the Vanguard Total Market (US) Fund.

Looking at VTI results here:

http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=vti

January sucked, February was better than January was bad, and March was up slightly. Looking at just over 2% total return so far. April will likely look pretty good unless disaster happens next week.

Still waiting for a response from K5: K5, will there ever come a point where you decide that your strategy has failed?

agip wrote:

Bigfoot Investments wrote:

Fully agreed that peer review does not guarantee perfection of the final product. Nothing does.

It is, however, one of the best tools that humanity has going for validating pretty much any result in pretty much any field.

yeah - I'm sure we're not disagreeing. Much of my post got cut off for some reason. I referred to a couple of fraud cases that are amusing but of course severely atypical.

http://www.theguardian.com/education/2009/jun/18/science-editor-resigns-hoax-article

and the classic (although not peer reviewed so not fair):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokal_affair

Re: the Sokal Hoax. It was a peer-reviewed journal... It was a fairly obscure journal, pretty much a prof's pet-project. The editor was puttin together a special issue and wanted to publish a piece from a physical scientists perspective... They decided to run Sokal's article even though he didn't acquiesce to the editor's comments.

Re: the mini peer review debate. Maserati is spot on. In the soft sciences, everything is very parochialized... There's a journal for just about anything and everything (e.g pseudo scientific junk like homeopathy or Marxism) Even the big name journals will publish work that gets even basic things wrong (like the interpretation of a p-value, as cataloged in several papers by the authors of 'The Cult of Statistical Significance').

Well known, effective Investment strategies just lead to arbitrage/bidding prices up to efficient levels (hence why many economists simply advocate low fee index funds).

Maserati wrote:

Still waiting for a response from K5: K5, will there ever come a point where you decide that your strategy has failed?

The sad thing is he's missing out on another profitable run up in the market, while stubbornly digging in and refusing to consider the possibility that he made a mistake. Most likely he won't concede this until we've hit DOW 18,000 and will begrudgingly wade back into the market at a time when the odds of a correction are even greater than they are now.