Down goes the Dow

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

pinning down a detail wrote:

I'm sorry about your inability to answer a question.

No answer?

I've answered it already. Sorry you don't understand simple ENGLISH, Dipshit!!!!!!!

No need for name calling.

Does "infinitely past, but not forward." mean "not infinitely forward", or "not forward at all"?

Maserati wrote:

Beyond the obvious suggestion, why do you believe the Fed would reverse tapering in such an instance?

DJIA up 125 so far today.

Falling into the pattern of a Bear market -- or more likely a bubble bursting.

2 to 3 days of solid drops, followed by one day of rally -- often ginned up by Fed announcements.

Klondike5 wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Beyond the obvious suggestion, why do you believe the Fed would reverse tapering in such an instance?

DJIA up 125 so far today.

Falling into the pattern of a Bear market -- or more likely a bubble bursting.

2 to 3 days of solid drops, followed by one day of rally -- often ginned up by Fed announcements.

K5 says bear market. That's a sure sign it will be going up.

Maserati wrote:

Beyond the obvious suggestion, why do you believe the Fed would reverse tapering in such an instance?

DJIA up 125 so far today.

The current administration needs the economy to look as good as possible if they hope to retain the Senate in the November elections. IMO, the Fed is a puppet for the administration and will step in to prevent any major market crash prior to November. Further, I think market traders assume this as well.

After November, all bets are off, especially if Democrats lose the Senate. A collapsing market in 2015-2016 "might" be considered an asset to agitate their base for higher turnout in the 2016 Presidental Elections. The failing economy, pay inequality, low minimum wages, etc, could all be blamed on a Republican-led Senate and House.

I'm not saying this will happen. I'm saying that the Fed has a LOT MORE INCENTIVE to artificially prop up the market until November than after November.

Or I could be all wrong and Yellen is an altruistic public servant who will do what's best for the country regardless of the personal and political fallout. /sarcasm

conspiracy!

Thanks, but that was the obvious suggestion!

With which I agree, BTW.

DJIA down 75 so far today, after an initial surge. Still doesn't amount to anything definitive, one way or the other.

Let Us Begin wrote:

Maserati wrote:

No, I own what I write.

You know what? It's about time I put some rigor into that measurement. I might do it over the weekend and let you know. Unlike core CPI, I include volatiles because there are ways to systematize their fluctuations. PCEPI will give some clues.

I also include taxes.

Your criticism is noted and welcome, and your abrasive style is appreciated.

I am impressed. Seriously.

I will definitely look forward to your posts next week.

Have a good weekend.

Waiting...

Yes, I know, I am working on it. It will take some time longer than I had anticipated.

Maserati wrote:

Yes, I know, I am working on it. It will take some time longer than I had anticipated.

Thanks. Will be awesome to have something of substance to discuss on this thread.

Maserati wrote:

DJIA down 75 so far today, after an initial surge. Still doesn't amount to anything definitive, one way or the other.

Agreed. DJIA up 38 now... still nothing definitive. This is a good time to sit back and wait. A close above 16323 followed by a second day above 16232 would be a short term bullish trading signal.

OTOH, the $COMPQ is looking increasingly weak with a new low YTD. I wonder if the big rebound from the intraday low is a short term reversal? Let's see if the bounce holds until close.

fisky wrote:

Maserati wrote:

DJIA down 75 so far today, after an initial surge. Still doesn't amount to anything definitive, one way or the other.

Agreed. DJIA up 38 now... still nothing definitive. This is a good time to sit back and wait. A close above 16323 followed by a second day above 16232 would be a short term bullish trading signal.

OTOH, the $COMPQ is looking increasingly weak with a new low YTD. I wonder if the big rebound from the intraday low is a short term reversal? Let's see if the bounce holds until close.

well by l'fisky's readings of the chart tea leaves, we have a short term bullish trading signal.

The US measured by VTI has already rebounded 2.5% from its lows last week. Was this just another headfake that shook out the weak hands and will force them to buy back in at higher prices?

Probably.

Sally Vixxxens wrote:

Klondike5 wrote:

Falling into the pattern of a Bear market -- or more likely a bubble bursting.

2 to 3 days of solid drops, followed by one day of rally -- often ginned up by Fed announcements.

K5 says bear market. That's a sure sign it will be going up.

K5...the gift that keeps on giving.

agip wrote:

well by l'fisky's readings of the chart tea leaves, we have a short term bullish trading signal.

The US measured by VTI has already rebounded 2.5% from its lows last week. Was this just another headfake that shook out the weak hands and will force them to buy back in at higher prices?

Probably.

We are looking for substance here. Not nonsense about tea leaves, trading signals, head fakes and weak hands.

Substance.

Guess I'll have to continue to wait for Maserati.

Let Us Begin wrote:

agip wrote:

well by l'fisky's readings of the chart tea leaves, we have a short term bullish trading signal.

The US measured by VTI has already rebounded 2.5% from its lows last week. Was this just another headfake that shook out the weak hands and will force them to buy back in at higher prices?

Probably.

We are looking for substance here. Not nonsense about tea leaves, trading signals, head fakes and weak hands.

Substance.

Guess I'll have to continue to wait for Maserati.

ask a question and I will answer with much substance

Let Us Begin wrote:

agip wrote:

well by l'fisky's readings of the chart tea leaves, we have a short term bullish trading signal.

The US measured by VTI has already rebounded 2.5% from its lows last week. Was this just another headfake that shook out the weak hands and will force them to buy back in at higher prices?

Probably.

We are looking for substance here. Not nonsense about tea leaves, trading signals, head fakes and weak hands.

Substance.

Guess I'll have to continue to wait for Maserati.

but to be fair to me, what I wrote was not nonsense. I used to be in the hedge fund world and I know how groupthink works - hedgies all do the same thing at once, and that drives the market in one direction to the next. In other words, quick 5% drops like we just had are usually the result of hedge funds trying to be smart and computer programs. No fundamental economic reason for it.

They all rush out at once, then rush back in at the same time. Again and again and again.

If you are looking for 1 + 2 = 3 sort of economic truths predicting the moves of the stock market, you will never get that. And you will be disappointed.

OK, not looking for 1 + 2 = 3 sorts of economic truths. Just some substance.

I will try to be fair to you here. I understand what you are saying about how groupthink works. And your perception of little ups and downs is certainly defensible. But it is not any more substantive than the little ups and downs themselves.

Ultimately it doesn't really matter what I would like to see here. I understand that. But what would be nice would be discussions/arguments of substance. Rudeness is perfectly welcome but not necessary. But little comments about trading ranges, market dips, 200-day trading signals, etc. just take up space without illuminating much of anything.

Like I said, I very much look forward to Maserati's work. And of course, it does not matter what I would like to see.

Oh, and you remain my favorite poster (along with Kaitainen).

Cheers

Thank you for being kind.

well I see this thread as a discussion zone of the markets and strategy - some worthy arguments, some trivial. But I like its vibe so I keep contributing to help keep it alive, whether or not I have something important to say that day.

The performance of the stock market is driven by speculation and maniupulation unrelated to the state of the real economy? O.....M......G!!!

Klondike5 wrote:

Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.

Maybe 5%

What's the bottom?

I am betting sub 13,000

Just got out of a coma. How we doin'?