Between the two, i would definitely prefer TNA, even after the sharp rise since you offered the original bet to the other guy.
But honestly, i don't care that much. I only care that TNA and the market as a whole does not tank between now and the end of the year. WHere it goes over weeks and months is just a guess.
But if that is what interests you, fine.
Just understand that i could be wrong and still TNA has been the preferable asset over the long term. That's what has impacted my portfolio.
Seattle,
Ok TNA from low last week and HSGFX from the high same week if you wish until year end . The whole point is small caps have the weakest fundamentals. So if fundamentals beat momentum I win, if not I lose, it really is that simple.
Igy
okay, but i think the comparison proves little.
What a very profitable investment does over the next 10 weeks (going into a dead period for much of it) is of little consequence. And if you think this proves something about fundamentals? A 10 week forecast, much of which involves funds closing out their positions for the year?
We'll see.
Seattle,
It really is just an argument of fundamental investment versus trading (momentum). I would take ten years for that matter but I could be dead by then. Seriously, the comment about fundamentals versus momentum is the correct view in my mind. Whether you realize it or not you are investing on momentum and hunches, thus my Ouija Board comment you found offensive. I think you would be very surprised at the outcome if the market started trading on fundamentals. Of course after the market experience since the election some actually believe it never will. That view however ignores all the elements of finance and market history.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Wrong, I said this drop was nothing.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Oh and normal was last week as you will soon see.
So a nothing drop is normal. Got it.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
Ok TNA from low last week and HSGFX from the high same week if you wish until year end . The whole point is small caps have the weakest fundamentals. So if fundamentals beat momentum I win, if not I lose, it really is that simple.
Igy
So you point out that small caps have the weakest fundamentals, yet that fund has absolutely destroyed Hussman’s baby. It sounds like even you finally agree that he’s not much of a fund manager. Personally I don’t know why anyone listens to him except maybe for a good laugh.
J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
Ok TNA from low last week and HSGFX from the high same week if you wish until year end . The whole point is small caps have the weakest fundamentals. So if fundamentals beat momentum I win, if not I lose, it really is that simple.
Igy
So you point out that small caps have the weakest fundamentals, yet that fund has absolutely destroyed Hussman’s baby. It sounds like even you finally agree that he’s not much of a fund manager. Personally I don’t know why anyone listens to him except maybe for a good laugh.
J,
OK, then confirm your gentlemen’s bet into year end. I will give same terms as Seattle.
Igy
Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, October 15, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.11%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.89%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 2.17%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 22.35%.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Where did you get seven years?
You said equity investments since 2011 will not pan out well.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
J. Hardy wrote:
So you point out that small caps have the weakest fundamentals, yet that fund has absolutely destroyed Hussman’s baby. It sounds like even you finally agree that he’s not much of a fund manager. Personally I don’t know why anyone listens to him except maybe for a good laugh.
J,
OK, then confirm your gentlemen’s bet into year end. I will give same terms as Seattle.
Igy
Why would you want to bet on something that has performed worse than one with the weakest fundamentals? Are you suggesting that fundamentals don’t matter?
Portia wrote:
Four of eight indicators on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, October 15, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.11%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.89%. In third is the 12 Month CD at 2.60%, in fourth the 3 Month T-Bill at 2.26% and fifth Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 2.17%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 22.35%.
https://www.adviserlostperspectibes.com/dshort/updates/2018/10/15/world-markets-update?&bt_ee=qDh4Zf1ymTAqUBVsQFKbBP061ga2RttnsHIRRGC5gGUog08DqJ68n2EHYyjE9jGf&bt_ts=1539773493105
Porsche Cayman wrote:
Portia wrote:
Four of eight indicators on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, October 15, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.11%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.89%. In third is the 12 Month CD at 2.60%, in fourth the 3 Month T-Bill at 2.26% and fifth Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 2.17%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 22.35%.
https://www.adviserlostperspectibes.com/dshort/updates/2018/10/15/world-markets-update?&bt_ee=qDh4Zf1ymTAqUBVsQFKbBP061ga2RttnsHIRRGC5gGUog08DqJ68n2EHYyjE9jGf&bt_ts=1539773493105
Yet another example of Igy not understanding basic investment arithmetic.
No, at this time fundamentals support HSGFX.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, at this time fundamentals support HSGFX.
Could you be more specific?
Huh?? wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, at this time fundamentals support HSGFX.
Could you be more specific?
Bear market manager. ? coming.....
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Huh?? wrote:
Could you be more specific?
Bear market manager. ? coming.....
I was hopeful you could tell us which specifically which fundamentals support HSGFX and why. Thanks in advance.
Down around 90 today. Third block now sold, sold when market today was about even, essentially same price as yesterday. Now preparing for some exposure to gold, via miners and juniors, both in US and internationally. Might hold this block for a while.
A friend just called whose 401k dropped 60k in this recent event. He was looking for advice, because i had suggested to another friend in a similar position but now 68yrs old to rotate into cash 2 weeks ago, while he sorted out what he was doing (he is still working). That suggestion turned out to be great, but for this other guy I had nothing to offer.
I didn’t feel too badly, he has been reciting the buy-and-hold mantra for decades...but now even he is nervous, especially as he plans to retire in 2 years.
I would LOVE to see US equities return to acceptable price levels, all things (including debt) considered...but even if they did, I am not sure that i would be confident about stability of business conditions going forward.
Huh?? wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Bear market manager. ? coming.....
I was hopeful you could tell us which specifically which fundamentals support HSGFX and why. Thanks in advance.
Sure, all right here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1052614573558255616Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Huh?? wrote:
I was hopeful you could tell us which specifically which fundamentals support HSGFX and why. Thanks in advance.
Sure, all right here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1052614573558255616
So you’re talking about valuations. I get that. But doesn’t HSGFX invest in stocks therefore being exposed to the very valuations Hussman warns about?
Also, you said fundamentals (plural). What else you got?
