Down goes the Dow

I still have @ $27k in the market but find myself rooting for the continued downward slide (justifying my sell-off of the last 2 days).

Nearly 4:00 PM and the Dow is down over 400 points with the other major indices in line (down @ 1.6% on the day).

so VIX 29 was the panic high. that's the second highest reading in 2 years. The February 2018 panic VIX high was materially higher.

Before that we have to go back to early 2016 and mid 2015 for VIX readings as high as that. I can't even remember why we freaked out then. Dunno.

so this is obviously an important level of selling and panic. Which is medium high bullish. But I would like to see a little more panic Friday morning - another percent or two down in the SP500 would probably be a bottom.

Gotsta shake loose all the scaredy cat money - best to do it quickly. Then they will have to start piling back in as the market begins to climb again.

Have a nice earning season coming up in a couple weeks. That should help.

Bump

[quote]agip wrote:

"so VIX 29 was the panic high. that's the second highest reading in 2 years. The February 2018 panic VIX high was materially higher.

Before that we have to go back to early 2016 and mid 2015 for VIX readings as high as that. I can't even remember why we freaked out then. Dunno.

so this is obviously an important level of selling and panic. Which is medium high bullish. But I would like to see a little more panic Friday morning - another percent or two down in the SP500 would probably be a bottom.

Gotsta shake loose all the scaredy cat money - best to do it quickly. Then they will have to start piling back in as the market begins to climb again."

Which would work out nicely for those scaredy cats. Sell early in the panic, buy back in early in the return.

The rest of your post is nonsense. Down another percent or two "probably the bottom". Why? Ditto on the VIX gibberish.

Wake-up in your make-up wrote:

I see where you are coming from wrote:

Investor A, Igy’s client, started with 1 million 9 years ago and now has only 500k to lose.

Investor B, who has been invested, started with 1 million, and now has 3 million to lose.

Of course Investor B is in a more precarious position! Probably hard to sleep at night.

Making up numbers out of thin air to "prove" your point.

Frightening stupidity.

Oh come on now. I was just teasing Igy. I don't think he takes it personally. I think Igy's pretty cool to be honest.

I see where you are coming from wrote:

Wake-up in your make-up wrote:

Making up numbers out of thin air to "prove" your point.

Frightening stupidity.

Oh come on now. I was just teasing Igy. I don't think he takes it personally. I think Igy's pretty cool to be honest.

It took you over a day to come up with that pathetic lie to cover your original fabrication?

Sheesh.

[quote]agip wrote:

4:15 and Dow down 545 points

You honestly can't figure out how to punch a 'quote post' button?

The relationship between a spiking VIX and an equity bottom is basic investing knowledge - not controversial.

the question is that you never know quite how high the VIX will eventually go. But historically, when the vix gets to 32ish, it's fairly safe to buy. for regular corrections anyway. We aren't quite there, but in the neighborhood.

May have to dump that last $27k I got in the market in the next ten minutes.

Asian markets took a 5% hit today and Western ones did as well over two days.

If another sell-off tomorrow than the panic will build over the week-end and Monday could be a real disaster.

Actually I just did. 100% out

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/quote.html

down 3% per year for 15 years, but yeah up today. whee.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/quote.html

down 3% per year for 15 years, but yeah up today. whee.

What matters is tomorrow and next week and next month.

We did some light buying today, but only a few select things that somebody in our group has wanted for a while now.

I agree with agip about another percent or two down, it is an historical fact that he is correct about the VIX. The question is whether this time is sufficiently similar to previous times to make the VIX a meaningful indicator of a bottom.

We have China, we have midterms, we have the buyback holiday, we have increasing rates, we have QT, etc.... Do these things make it different this time? At least some TV pundits seem to think so, which is telling—in Feb, for instance, none of them thought that there was a problem that couldn’t be corrected in fairly short order, and they were correct.

And those guys are filtered for their views before they are invited on air, to fit the desired narrative.

It looks to me as though it is now acceptable to incur a correction—and if that is correct, then a correction will most certainly be the result. But how deep? 7%? 10%? Remember that this is still only October, and that year-end profit-taking has not yet been a factor.

I think that another 1-2% down will satisfy the apparently accepted need for a correction, and will set things up acceptably, going into midterms and earnings season. Basically, the drawdown will just serve to make post-earnings buybacks more affordable, thus offsetting the increased financing costs.

The next leg down might come tomorrow, but I could see it coming on Monday just the same, after a pause for reflection on the weekend. These things are managed to make people money, and they will take it to the acceptable point. VIX is for sure a big indicator they use to see how “in control” the market remains.

Will be watching closely. Sorry, Igy! This seems like a decent 1-2 month opportunity, but we will see, right?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Say wha? wrote:

Having fun? You basically told that other guy that he was a bad financial planner because he pointed out how ludicrous that post was.

Actually it could be true and still I would be having fun. TNA is likely on the cusp of a multi-year decline and HSGFX on a multi-year upswing. It is all a question of “is this the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end.” Either way it will not matter because most will lose money from here on TNA and make money on HSGFX. My opinion of course.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/quote.html

down 3% per year for 15 years, but yeah up today. whee.

Read my post above the explains the context.

Posting this largely because it is important but partly since Hussman bugs some posters so much.

"We did some light buying today..". In fact is there not always a buyer for everything sold? So if we saw lots of selling -- and we did -- did we not see heavy buying (albeit at lower prices)?

"It looks to me as though it is now acceptable to incur a correction—and if that is correct, then a correction will most certainly be the result". WTF does that mean. When is it acceptable to lose 10% of your value and why?

"I think that another 1-2% down will satisfy the apparently accepted need for a correction". Again, what does that mean?

Maserati,

I have no particular view on the length or depth of the current decline. I will say the character of the market has changed since February. So I doubt that trading around this market will be fruitful. My opinion of course.

Igy