rekrunner wrote:
The subject was OOC blood testing. Athletes like Wanjiru were presumably subject to Western level of OOC blood tests. I'm not sure I would say that "exonerates Wanjiru", but it does add perspective to the issue of OOC blood testing.
When does the "Western level of OOC blood tests" have any meaning? (see the FB's hacked WADA document....?)
The doubling population of Kenya suddenly seems important to you. Your accusation that I neglected the population growth is plain wrong. In the very second post, before giving any summary quantity and quality data, I gave percentages of the world population for both 1990 and present, reflects the increasing population of East Africa and North Africa, with respect to global population:
rekrunner wrote:
Men's data:
As you look at the numbers, keep in mind the relative size of the respective populations:
- East Africa (4-5.6%) (1990 and present)
- North Africa (2.9-3.1%)
- 5 continents (83-87%)
As much as Kenyan population has grown, "5 continents" is still much larger than all of East Africa by a factor of ~16, and larger than all of North Africa, by a factor of ~29:
rekrunner wrote:
when you look at athletes from "5 continents" -- North and South America, Europe, Russia, Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand -- with a combined population 15-30 times as many people compared to East and North Africans
The United States outnumbers the Kenyans by about 6.5x. Do you think there are 90 Americans today, who if given unlimited access to Kenyan drug stores, would outperform Coe of 1985? No American in history has done it, unless you count Lagat. This is a part of what you are calling the obvious higly likely scenario that I reject.
Regarding your second point, why do you say "Rekrunner's 'talent has moved to the roads' maxim doesn't really cut it, does it?" Because of Kenyan population doubling? Why do you reject "Money dried up on the track" as a solid reason?
When I looked at the marathon, I counted 100 "quality" performances (sub 2:07:35) (62 performers) before Sep. 2007 (over 22 years), when Geb set his first world record, and 447 "quality" performances (202 performers) after (just over 10 years).
When I counted sub-2:07:11 (my 1990 benchmark) performers, this was from 183 East Africans, 6 North Africans, and 12 from the rest of the world.
Carlos Lopes ran 2:07:12 and Steve Jones ran 2:07:13 in 1985, so 2:07:11 should be quite feasible for all populations over the next 33 years.
This looks like a strong indication to me that a lot of East African talent has moved to the roads after 2007.
Coevett wrote:
I also underestimated the Kenyan population growth.
According to the World Bank it was 26.6 million in 1995 and 48.5 million in 2016, so it has nearly doubled since the EPO era. Rekrunner's 'talent has moved to the roads' maxim doesn't really cut it, does it?
There are no solid reasons to explain why Kenyan times have come down so much. All the reasons trotted out for the rather sudden emergence of Kenyan talent in the late 80s are still there and should be leading to an ever greater number of elite times and runners. Running has never been more popular in Kenya as the recent world record attendance for a junior athletics meet showed. Kenya doesn't have a growing problem with obesity amongst kids. Still no McDonalds in Eldoret or Iten. Premiership clubs aren't poaching all the athletic talent from Kenyan schools. In fact, Kenyans still seem completely useless at any sport other than distance running.
casual obsever wrote:
m!ndweak wrote:
you guys would still be on the fence
They are (somewhat) insiders who make a living of the sport. As such, they know very well how dirty the sport is, but play along with pretending that most athletes are clean (despite ample evidence to the contrary), it's very difficult to dope (despite ample evidence to the contrary), and that the IAAF is against doping (despite ample evidence to the contrary).
the other interesting thing is with my firm belief of the 4% gain...which in a 10k is about 60-65 seconds, puts one persons old PR and lifetime PR into question..this was of course after moving to EPO hot bed flagstaff. i wonder if the huge hatred vendetta against al sal is cause said runner in question wasnt accepted into the NOP group?
yeah it really doesnt make sense to me unless i toss this angle
-hatred and vendetta against al sal and NOP
-lots of smoke, but nothing concrete, "al sal is a terrible man and NOP is full of cheats!!!"
-confusion and doubt on rosa, canova and the kenyans regarding EPO
-kiprop, sumgong, jeptoo........"hmmm i just dont know what to believe, rosa and canova both say they are the greatest coaches in the world and EPO and PEDs only get kenyans in shape thats it nothing more"
JohnnyG wrote:
Coevett wrote:
I think Johnny Gray ran his 1:42 (twice) before Seoul in 88, but I might be wrong.
Yes, you are wrong.
O.K., but he didn't run faster than Elliott AFTER SEOUL AND BEFORE EPO, so I was right to begin with - not sure why you opened your mouth.
rekrunner wrote:
The doubling population of Kenya suddenly seems important to you. Your accusation that I neglected the population growth is plain wrong. In the very second post, before giving any summary quantity and quality data, I gave percentages of the world population for both 1990 and present, reflects the increasing population of East Africa and North Africa, with respect to global population:
rekrunner wrote:
Men's data:
As you look at the numbers, keep in mind the relative size of the respective populations:
- East Africa (4-5.6%) (1990 and present)
- North Africa (2.9-3.1%)
- 5 continents (83-87%)
As much as Kenyan population has grown, "5 continents" is still much larger than all of East Africa by a factor of ~16, and larger than all of North Africa, by a factor of ~29:
rekrunner wrote:
when you look at athletes from "5 continents" -- North and South America, Europe, Russia, Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand -- with a combined population 15-30 times as many people compared to East and North Africans
The United States outnumbers the Kenyans by about 6.5x. Do you think there are 90 Americans today, who if given unlimited access to Kenyan drug stores, would outperform Coe of 1985? No American in history has done it, unless you count Lagat. This is a part of what you are calling the obvious higly likely scenario that I reject.
Regarding your second point, why do you say "Rekrunner's 'talent has moved to the roads' maxim doesn't really cut it, does it?" Because of Kenyan population doubling? Why do you reject "Money dried up on the track" as a solid reason?
When I looked at the marathon, I counted 100 "quality" performances (sub 2:07:35) (62 performers) before Sep. 2007 (over 22 years), when Geb set his first world record, and 447 "quality" performances (202 performers) after (just over 10 years).
When I counted sub-2:07:11 (my 1990 benchmark) performers, this was from 183 East Africans, 6 North Africans, and 12 from the rest of the world.
Carlos Lopes ran 2:07:12 and Steve Jones ran 2:07:13 in 1985, so 2:07:11 should be quite feasible for all populations over the next 33 years.
This looks like a strong indication to me that a lot of East African talent has moved to the roads after 2007.
Coevett wrote:
I also underestimated the Kenyan population growth.
According to the World Bank it was 26.6 million in 1995 and 48.5 million in 2016, so it has nearly doubled since the EPO era. Rekrunner's 'talent has moved to the roads' maxim doesn't really cut it, does it?
There are no solid reasons to explain why Kenyan times have come down so much. All the reasons trotted out for the rather sudden emergence of Kenyan talent in the late 80s are still there and should be leading to an ever greater number of elite times and runners. Running has never been more popular in Kenya as the recent world record attendance for a junior athletics meet showed. Kenya doesn't have a growing problem with obesity amongst kids. Still no McDonalds in Eldoret or Iten. Premiership clubs aren't poaching all the athletic talent from Kenyan schools. In fact, Kenyans still seem completely useless at any sport other than distance running.
No, I've been referring to the doubling of the Kenyan population and getting into squabbles with El K over it for months now.
Yes, I think there are 90 Americans alive today who would outpeform Coe if they were loaded up on EPO and trained for the Mile all their lives. Unfortunately, probably none of them chose running and even if they did, they likely wouldn't have cheated with EPO.
Just looking at your original 'analysis' reminds me how ridiculous it is. I mean what the hell? You're saying (or includingn in your 'rest of the world' stats), that for example, if 4:20 'elite' Samoan runners only improved by 1 second during the EPO era (just a random made up example on my part), then that shows that the vast Kenyan improvements couldn't be down to EPO??
For a start, you're comparing the most distance running focused nation on Earth with countries that don't ever produce anything like world class runners. Nobody is disputing that Kenya (for various reasons that I've gone through many times) can churn out dozens of international class 3:35 - 3:50 1500m runners. What's more likely - a Kenyan 3:37 1500m runner taking EPO, aided by Italian doctors etc in order to earn a lucrative living on the international circuit, or the Tongan 1500m 3:50 champ taking EPO?
And again, you explicitly state in that 2nd post in your thread that 'everybody cheats'. You're starting with a value based assumption. That's not scientific.
I just don't see what the point of your analysis is, and that's why I said previously that I can't understand why intelligent people here are actually arguing with you over it. Moroccans suddenly start running 8 seconds faster over 1500m and 30 seconds faster over 5000m. A couple of years or so later, Kenyans and Ethiopians suddnely start running 4 or 5 seconds faster over 1500m and 30 seconds or more faster over 5000m. As soon as testing was introduced, times went down almost overnight, and still further with the introduction of the ABP. Any reasonable and objective person would draw the obvious conclusion that this is down to the availability of EPO and the corruption and lack of testing in those countries during the 90s and 00s. Yet you make some ridiculous 'analysis' comparing the entire rest of the world with one uniquly distance running obsessed nation that happens to be one of the most corrupt societies on Earth and because the rest of the world didn't improve nearly so much, you actually believe this 'proves' that EPO doesn't work.
However, I apologize for calling you an 'aspie' yesterday, even if you have called me a 'racist' a number of times, I shouldn't use such language and we should all try to be civil here.
lolz lolz lolz.....
dude coevett dont worry EPO or is it OPE or PEO? i dont know it dont work, kiprop is innocent and PEDs are not "performance enhancing drugs" it actually means
pathetic endurance doubters
Coevett wrote:
JohnnyG wrote:
Yes, you are wrong.
O.K., but he didn't run faster than Elliott AFTER SEOUL AND BEFORE EPO, so I was right to begin with - not sure why you opened your mouth.
No, you were wrong.
When did you start criticizing my "analysis" for not recognizing African population growth? Unless I'm mistaken, or missed it, this seems about 1 week old, and now you've done it 4 or 5 times in the last week. I hope you stop it now, now that I've shown you that I actually did highlight both the population of 1990 and the "present" (Jan. 2018) before I presented any data, urging the reader to keep the population of the various groups in mind when looking at the different results. I've already explained the purpose of that thread to you. Without repeating the entire thread again here, the main question was to explore reasons why the best of the rest ran so poorly, for decades, despite the existence of an undetectable 4% PED, in the context of African dominance. Prevalence=0 or Effect=0 are two possible extreme responses. I gave my opinion, with this data as a basis for it. Your Samoan and Tongan examples would not be included unless they met my criteria for top times. I did not focus on nations or individuals, but larger regions, over a long single period. All the critics of my choices for analysis are free to do their own. If you read what I wrote more carefully, I qualified "everybody cheats" as "everybody (up to 57%) from everywhere cheats". This was not a "non-scientific value based assumption" but a statement that comes from many published sources. The 57% comes from a much discussed Tubingen survey. In 2011, the IAAF estimated 14% (samples) blood doping prevalence in the most comprehensive study of its kind, and the Tubingen survey found at least 29% (athletes) doping prevalence at a World Championship, and 57% (athletes) at Pan-Arab games. The Sunday Times also published a breakdown of the leaked IAAF blood statistics (2000-2012), from more than 5000 athletes in 208 countries, showing prevalence (samples) by country. Note while Morocco was fairly high (24%), it only ranked 5th highest nation. Kenya (11%), Spain (11%), and Ethiopia (8%) were out of the top 10. USA was 5% and Great Britain was 4%. I'm pretty sure I retracted the "racist" comment last week, and said everyone was wrong to call your accusations racist. It is stereotyping.
Coevett wrote:
No, I've been referring to the doubling of the Kenyan population and getting into squabbles with El K over it for months now.
Yes, I think there are 90 Americans alive today who would outpeform Coe if they were loaded up on EPO and trained for the Mile all their lives. Unfortunately, probably none of them chose running and even if they did, they likely wouldn't have cheated with EPO.
Just looking at your original 'analysis' reminds me how ridiculous it is. I mean what the hell? You're saying (or includingn in your 'rest of the world' stats), that for example, if 4:20 'elite' Samoan runners only improved by 1 second during the EPO era (just a random made up example on my part), then that shows that the vast Kenyan improvements couldn't be down to EPO??
For a start, you're comparing the most distance running focused nation on Earth with countries that don't ever produce anything like world class runners. Nobody is disputing that Kenya (for various reasons that I've gone through many times) can churn out dozens of international class 3:35 - 3:50 1500m runners. What's more likely - a Kenyan 3:37 1500m runner taking EPO, aided by Italian doctors etc in order to earn a lucrative living on the international circuit, or the Tongan 1500m 3:50 champ taking EPO?
And again, you explicitly state in that 2nd post in your thread that 'everybody cheats'. You're starting with a value based assumption. That's not scientific.
I just don't see what the point of your analysis is, and that's why I said previously that I can't understand why intelligent people here are actually arguing with you over it. Moroccans suddenly start running 8 seconds faster over 1500m and 30 seconds faster over 5000m. A couple of years or so later, Kenyans and Ethiopians suddnely start running 4 or 5 seconds faster over 1500m and 30 seconds or more faster over 5000m. As soon as testing was introduced, times went down almost overnight, and still further with the introduction of the ABP. Any reasonable and objective person would draw the obvious conclusion that this is down to the availability of EPO and the corruption and lack of testing in those countries during the 90s and 00s. Yet you make some ridiculous 'analysis' comparing the entire rest of the world with one uniquly distance running obsessed nation that happens to be one of the most corrupt societies on Earth and because the rest of the world didn't improve nearly so much, you actually believe this 'proves' that EPO doesn't work.
However, I apologize for calling you an 'aspie' yesterday, even if you have called me a 'racist' a number of times, I shouldn't use such language and we should all try to be civil here.
A rare moment of agreement. No need to apologize, but I appreciate it, and the reminder to try to be civil.
Coevett wrote:
However, I apologize for calling you an 'aspie' yesterday, even if you have called me a 'racist' a number of times, I shouldn't use such language and we should all try to be civil here.
yeah you dont want to get banned for sticking up for yourself after you have been called racists bruh. its prob best to not argue with the name we cannot say even if he instigates you buy calling you a racist. in fact let him call you all the names in the book and dont give in....there are others on here that still want you to engage them at full throttle still
ex runner
ghost
and good ol el k
lolz
Coevett wrote:
JohnnyG wrote:
Yes, you are wrong.
O.K., but he didn't run faster than Elliott AFTER SEOUL AND BEFORE EPO, so I was right to begin with - not sure why you opened your mouth.
Depends when you think EPO was first being used in T&F.
But, as I posted earlier, Gray ran faster than Elliott's 1:42.97 from May 1990, with 1:42.80 in June 1992.
Personally, I think that pre-dates EPO use in T&F. But who knows!?
Coevett wrote:
rekrunner wrote:
The doubling population of Kenya suddenly seems important to you. Your accusation that I neglected the population growth is plain wrong. In the very second post, before giving any summary quantity and quality data, I gave percentages of the world population for both 1990 and present, reflects the increasing population of East Africa and North Africa, with respect to global population:
As much as Kenyan population has grown, "5 continents" is still much larger than all of East Africa by a factor of ~16, and larger than all of North Africa, by a factor of ~29:
The United States outnumbers the Kenyans by about 6.5x. Do you think there are 90 Americans today, who if given unlimited access to Kenyan drug stores, would outperform Coe of 1985? No American in history has done it, unless you count Lagat. This is a part of what you are calling the obvious higly likely scenario that I reject.
Regarding your second point, why do you say "Rekrunner's 'talent has moved to the roads' maxim doesn't really cut it, does it?" Because of Kenyan population doubling? Why do you reject "Money dried up on the track" as a solid reason?
When I looked at the marathon, I counted 100 "quality" performances (sub 2:07:35) (62 performers) before Sep. 2007 (over 22 years), when Geb set his first world record, and 447 "quality" performances (202 performers) after (just over 10 years).
When I counted sub-2:07:11 (my 1990 benchmark) performers, this was from 183 East Africans, 6 North Africans, and 12 from the rest of the world.
Carlos Lopes ran 2:07:12 and Steve Jones ran 2:07:13 in 1985, so 2:07:11 should be quite feasible for all populations over the next 33 years.
This looks like a strong indication to me that a lot of East African talent has moved to the roads after 2007.
No, I've been referring to the doubling of the Kenyan population and getting into squabbles with El K over it for months now.
Yes, I think there are 90 Americans alive today who would outpeform Coe if they were loaded up on EPO and trained for the Mile all their lives. Unfortunately, probably none of them chose running and even if they did, they likely wouldn't have cheated with EPO.
Just looking at your original 'analysis' reminds me how ridiculous it is. I mean what the hell? You're saying (or includingn in your 'rest of the world' stats), that for example, if 4:20 'elite' Samoan runners only improved by 1 second during the EPO era (just a random made up example on my part), then that shows that the vast Kenyan improvements couldn't be down to EPO??
For a start, you're comparing the most distance running focused nation on Earth with countries that don't ever produce anything like world class runners. Nobody is disputing that Kenya (for various reasons that I've gone through many times) can churn out dozens of international class 3:35 - 3:50 1500m runners. What's more likely - a Kenyan 3:37 1500m runner taking EPO, aided by Italian doctors etc in order to earn a lucrative living on the international circuit, or the Tongan 1500m 3:50 champ taking EPO?
And again, you explicitly state in that 2nd post in your thread that 'everybody cheats'. You're starting with a value based assumption. That's not scientific.
I just don't see what the point of your analysis is, and that's why I said previously that I can't understand why intelligent people here are actually arguing with you over it. Moroccans suddenly start running 8 seconds faster over 1500m and 30 seconds faster over 5000m. A couple of years or so later, Kenyans and Ethiopians suddnely start running 4 or 5 seconds faster over 1500m and 30 seconds or more faster over 5000m. As soon as testing was introduced, times went down almost overnight, and still further with the introduction of the ABP. Any reasonable and objective person would draw the obvious conclusion that this is down to the availability of EPO and the corruption and lack of testing in those countries during the 90s and 00s. Yet you make some ridiculous 'analysis' comparing the entire rest of the world with one uniquly distance running obsessed nation that happens to be one of the most corrupt societies on Earth and because the rest of the world didn't improve nearly so much, you actually believe this 'proves' that EPO doesn't work.
However, I apologize for calling you an 'aspie' yesterday, even if you have called me a 'racist' a number of times, I shouldn't use such language and we should all try to be civil here.
+1
Deanouk wrote:
Coevett wrote:
O.K., but he didn't run faster than Elliott AFTER SEOUL AND BEFORE EPO, so I was right to begin with - not sure why you opened your mouth.
Depends when you think EPO was first being used in T&F.
But, as I posted earlier, Gray ran faster than Elliott's 1:42.97 from May 1990, with 1:42.80 in June 1992.
Personally, I think that pre-dates EPO use in T&F. But who knows!?
rEPO wasn't used in T&F until the early to mid-90s.
It's not really my theory, but apparently the higher level of Western testing is the thing holding the rest of the world back, compared to the lack of OOC blood testing in Ethiopia and Kenya.
Oh...Sure wrote:
rekrunner wrote:
The subject was OOC blood testing. Athletes like Wanjiru were presumably subject to Western level of OOC blood tests. I'm not sure I would say that "exonerates Wanjiru", but it does add perspective to the issue of OOC blood testing.
When does the "Western level of OOC blood tests" have any meaning? (see the FB's hacked WADA document....?)
You are very creative.
m!ndweak wrote:
yeah you dont want to get banned for sticking up for yourself after you have been called racists bruh. its prob best to not argue with the name we cannot say even if he instigates you buy calling you a racist. in fact let him call you all the names in the book and dont give in....there are others on here that still want you to engage them at full throttle still
ex runner
ghost
and good ol el k
lolz
m!ndweak wrote:
the other interesting thing is with my firm belief of the 4% gain...which in a 10k is about 60-65 seconds, puts one persons old PR and lifetime PR into question..
-confusion and doubt on rosa, canova and the kenyans regarding EPO
-kiprop, sumgong, jeptoo........"hmmm i just dont know what to believe, rosa and canova both say they are the greatest coaches in the world and EPO and PEDs only get kenyans in shape thats it nothing more"
Mindweak 4% maybe true (just imagine that Nike's Vaporflys were all about the epo?) but actually it is very difficult to tell, as we are comparing epo era times with the cold-war era times, which may well have included: steroids, blood transfusions, pain killers & stimulants (or amphetamines just to keep Bad Wigins happy) and later (mid 1980s) hgh. What sensible analysis of pre & post 1990 times tells us is that there was very little in the way of gains over 800m from epo (and maybe hgh), but for 1500/mile it was clearly worth 1.5-2%, over 2% for 3000m, nearer to 3% for 5000m and approaching 4% for 10,000m and the marathon (contrary to the nonsense that it doesn't help over that distance). However when many of us on here have looked at the likes Sumgong the gains look more like 6% from clean, but I will admit (to negate Rekrunner's criticisms) this is subject to the law of diminishing returns. What we also know, quite clearly, is that 12:50 5,000m times (or quicker) are impossible without rampant use of epo.
Deanouk wrote:
Coevett wrote:
O.K., but he didn't run faster than Elliott AFTER SEOUL AND BEFORE EPO, so I was right to begin with - not sure why you opened your mouth.
Depends when you think EPO was first being used in T&F.
But, as I posted earlier, Gray ran faster than Elliott's 1:42.97 from May 1990, with 1:42.80 in June 1992.
Personally, I think that pre-dates EPO use in T&F. But who knows!?
Johnny Gray was quite a likeable chap and always went out hard which is admirable. In fact my older brother met him in the 90s and claimed he was a good guy (mind you he also still thinks Kevin Young is a good guy but there's no way 46.78 can be done without drugs). Gray sounds like he is opposed to drugs but then again so was Kiprop. And I find it a real stretch to believe any elite guy at the Santa Monica track club was clean in the 1980s.
Ethiopians were actually over 30s faster over 5,000m thanks to the hot sauce. While Komen was only 27s faster than Rono.
Yes. And now? 2016 was slow, 2017 was slow, 2018 is slow so far.
Worth repeating; since Diack's departure (2016 - 2018), 800 and 5000 m best times:
fastest African-born: 1:42.15 - 12:55
fastest non-African: 1:42.93 - 13:10
Compared to all time list:
fastest African-born: 1:40.91 - 12:37
fastest non-African: 1:41.73 - 12:54
Differences:
fastest African-born: 1.24 s - 18 s
fastest non-African: 1.20 s - 16 s
rekrunner wrote:
I've already explained the purpose of that thread to you. Without repeating the entire thread again here, the main question was to explore reasons why the best of the rest ran so poorly, for decades, despite the existence of an undetectable 4% PED, in the context of African dominance. Prevalence=0 or Effect=0 are two possible extreme responses. I gave my opinion, with this data as a basis for it. Your Samoan and Tongan examples would not be included unless they met my criteria for top times. I did not focus on nations or individuals, but larger regions, over a long single period. All the critics of my choices for analysis are free to do their own.
The "undetectable PED" was only undetectable for a short time. There were several rEPO positives at Sydney that didn't result in any bans. Marathoner Roberto Barbi holds the infamous distinction of being the first athlete banned for an rEPO positive when he was tested upon arrival at the 01 WCs in Edmonton. Then the slew of Morrocan IC positives came followed by several top European runners getting nailed OOC. And of course there's the ridiculous number of Russian sanctions & positives post-ABP. The rEPO-era has been almost 3 decades long now with only about a third of that period undetectable.
And the "best of rest" didn't run so poorly. Been over this ad nauseam with you. Improvement in time from baseline is just an important measure as an end point of a very fast top performing time. I still think you believe every O2-vector doper is a potential WR holder. Not every doper has the same talent level to begin with - you should know this. Individual varaiation, dosing & resources are all factors.
Please explain why an end-point of a fast top time is a better measurement of O2-vector doping's effectiveness than a percentage improvement in time from base - if not all athletes have the same talent level to begin with. ?