Sebastian Coe vs Said Aouita - 1500/mile race - Who would win?

SDSU Aztec wrote:

How could there be so many posts on this thread? Coe had a little more top end speed and Aouita was a little stronger. That's it.

Because they were the two greatest middle-distance runners of their generation, and some say ever, and their careers more than overlapped (both arguably at their 1500m peak in the summer of 1984) and yet they never raced each other once.

Coevett wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

How could there be so many posts on this thread? Coe had a little more top end speed and Aouita was a little stronger. That's it.

Because they were the two greatest middle-distance runners of their generation, and some say ever, and their careers more than overlapped (both arguably at their 1500m peak in the summer of 1984) and yet they never raced each other once.

Coe's best event is the 800m and Aouita's best event is the 3000m.

Hence the middle ground is the 1500m/mile which would have made it a fantastic race.

Darnyi wrote:

Coevett wrote:

Because they were the two greatest middle-distance runners of their generation, and some say ever, and their careers more than overlapped (both arguably at their 1500m peak in the summer of 1984) and yet they never raced each other once.

Coe's best event is the 800m and Aouita's best event is the 3000m.

Hence the middle ground is the 1500m/mile which would have made it a fantastic race.

For sure it would have been a fantastic race, and it's possible to imagine either one winning. But as to who would win is pure speculation and if they had both been at the top of their game over 3-4 years and raced often, it would probably have gone back and forth.

Jos Buttler wrote:

If the 1984 Olympics wasn't boycotted, would have Aouita still have won the 5000m gold?

I am sure Coe still would have won.

I am sure Aouita would have still won the 5000m too, even without the boycott. There weren’t any East European or Communist nations with athletes that could have come close to Aouita over 5k.

Darnyi wrote:

Coevett wrote:

Because they were the two greatest middle-distance runners of their generation, and some say ever, and their careers more than overlapped (both arguably at their 1500m peak in the summer of 1984) and yet they never raced each other once.

Coe's best event is the 800m and Aouita's best event is the 3000m.

Hence the middle ground is the 1500m/mile which would have made it a fantastic race.

Actually, I think Coe’s best distance was probably 1000m. Was capable of 2:11 low in 81.

Let us assume if both men would have gotten through the rounds in 1984 1500m, Aouita most likely would have been the favorite with 25% probability of winning with Cram, Scott and Coe would have been at 20% each probability of winning. The remainder of the field would have had app. a 15% probability of winning. Aouita more than likely was avoiding Cram in 1984 Olympics, not avoiding Coe. Cram did not want to win at all cost. Compared to Coe, Cram was the junior man. Cram had Coe boxed in on the final backstretch with 270m to go. Cram lost his gusto and allowed Coe to escape.

what odds makers would have said in 1984 wrote:

Let us assume if both men would have gotten through the rounds in 1984 1500m, Aouita most likely would have been the favorite with 25% probability of winning with Cram, Scott and Coe would have been at 20% each probability of winning. The remainder of the field would have had app. a 15% probability of winning. Aouita more than likely was avoiding Cram in 1984 Olympics, not avoiding Coe. Cram did not want to win at all cost. Compared to Coe, Cram was the junior man. Cram had Coe boxed in on the final backstretch with 270m to go. Cram lost his gusto and allowed Coe to escape.

I think it was Peter Coe that said Cram didn't have the sudden, blistering change of pace that Coe and Ovett had, but if Cram was in front with 400m-600m to go he was nearly impossible to beat because he would have already been winding it up and given his massive stride length it's very hard to get around him.

what odds makers would have said in 1984 wrote:

Let us assume if both men would have gotten through the rounds in 1984 1500m, Aouita most likely would have been the favorite with 25% probability of winning with Cram, Scott and Coe would have been at 20% each probability of winning. The remainder of the field would have had app. a 15% probability of winning. Aouita more than likely was avoiding Cram in 1984 Olympics, not avoiding Coe. Cram did not want to win at all cost. Compared to Coe, Cram was the junior man. Cram had Coe boxed in on the final backstretch with 270m to go. Cram lost his gusto and allowed Coe to escape.

No, that is not accurate. Coe was never boxed in along the back straight. Coe was in 2nd on the shoulder of Abascal all along the back stretch, and as soon as Cram moved alongside Coe on the outside, with about 250m to go, Coe quickly and easily moves ahead of Cram and then straight into the lead. Cram never let him escape, Coe ran about as perfect a tactical race as he ever did in his career.

I think he said it was very difficult to get past him if he was at his peak and in front with a lap to go, mainly because he grew in confidence when he was in front with 300 to go. Even had a peak Cram managed to get past Coe with 300m to go in LA, I still think Coe would have latched on to him and get him in the straight. And if Coe had run a similar tactical race in the Stuttgart 1500 as he did in LA, that would likely have had a different result, certainly much closer than it was.

Deanouk wrote:

Darnyi wrote:

Coe's best event is the 800m and Aouita's best event is the 3000m.

Hence the middle ground is the 1500m/mile which would have made it a fantastic race.

Actually, I think Coe’s best distance was probably 1000m. Was capable of 2:11 low in 81.

Interesting you say that.

Has Rudisha or Kipketer ever run a 1000m race?

Darnyi wrote:

Has Rudisha or Kipketer ever run a 1000m race?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1000_metres

Yes, Kipketer ran the distance 10 times in his career, which is probably more than Coe.

He mainly ran them indoors, with a pb (and WR) of 2:14.96 from 2000. His outdoor best was 2:16.29 from '95.

I think he likely realised he didn't have the endurance to break Coe's outdoor WR of 2:12.18, so didn't make the effort to attack it.

Rudisha kept stating in his peak years that he would run some 1000m, but they never materialised. He has run at least one in recent years, a 2:19 in 2017. While of course he is capable of much faster than that, he is certainly a speed based 400/800 type, and his potential over 1000m I seriously doubt would be much better than 2:13 high/2:14 off his usual 800m training.

Deanouk wrote:

Darnyi wrote:

Has Rudisha or Kipketer ever run a 1000m race?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1000_metres

Yes, Kipketer ran the distance 10 times in his career, which is probably more than Coe.

He mainly ran them indoors, with a pb (and WR) of 2:14.96 from 2000. His outdoor best was 2:16.29 from '95.

I think he likely realised he didn't have the endurance to break Coe's outdoor WR of 2:12.18, so didn't make the effort to attack it.

Rudisha kept stating in his peak years that he would run some 1000m, but they never materialised. He has run at least one in recent years, a 2:19 in 2017. While of course he is capable of much faster than that, he is certainly a speed based 400/800 type, and his potential over 1000m I seriously doubt would be much better than 2:13 high/2:14 off his usual 800m training.

Coe's range between 800m and the mile is amazing. It would have been great to see commit to the 5000m at some point in his career.

I also would have been interested to see Aouita try the marathon, given his great range.

Darnyi wrote:

Coe's range between 800m and the mile is amazing. It would have been great to see commit to the 5000m at some point in his career.

I also would have been interested to see Aouita try the marathon, given his great range.

Maybe he should have moved up to the marathon after 88 as he entered his 30's. He must have known that he likely wouldn't have the speed at 1500 to challenge in Barcelona (even without the injuries he developed), as well as being aware of the 'new talent' that was emerging in North Africa.

Rod Dixon had already gone from 1500 to the marathon in his career with a fair degree of success. I'm sure Aouita would have been world class without even much specific training. If he'd moved up straight after Seoul, he might even have avoided the injuries that ended his career. Imagine if Aouita had broken the marathon world record (which was only 2:06:50 until 1999) and won gold in Barcelona, lol.

You must be related to Coe or Cram. You act like I can't watch the race. You are watching the race with rose color glasses. Cram yielded ground. If Coe were from a different country, Cram would have defended his turf with greater vigor, more likely than not.

Who's your cousin? wrote:

Deanouk wrote:

No, that is not accurate. Coe was never boxed in along the back straight. Coe was in 2nd on the shoulder of Abascal all along the back stretch, and as soon as Cram moved alongside Coe on the outside, with about 250m to go, Coe quickly and easily moves ahead of Cram and then straight into the lead. Cram never let him escape, Coe ran about as perfect a tactical race as he ever did in his career.

You must be related to Coe or Cram. You act like I can't watch the race. You are watching the race with rose color glasses. Cram yielded ground. If Coe were from a different country, Cram would have defended his turf with greater vigor, more likely than not.

We can all watch the race and it's clear at no point was Coe boxed in. Cram attempted to go past Coe and Coe responded immediately. Even Ventolin wouldn't deny this.

Your 'bookmaker odds' are a load of rubbish as well. It was clear after the 800m that Coe was back to very close to his best and getting better with every race. Maybe before LA Aouita would have been a strong favourite over Coe.

Actually, the bookmaker's favourite when LA began was Ovett. Although none of the Brits appeared to be at their very best going in to LA, Ovett was stringing along a nice sequence of wins and appeared to be improving with every race. Aouita would have been ducking all three Brits, as the chances were that at least one of them would find form in the final.

As far as I know, Aouita had never beaten any of the Brits over 1500m or the Mile at that point apart from Ovett in Helsinki, when Ovett ran a terrible race (coming back from injury) and was closing on Aouita with every stride (and then smashed the world record a week or two later).

Aouita would have an advantage of being fresh, unless in your hypothetical matchup he ran the 5000m as well, when the two events overlapped on the timetable.

Aouita had been one of the favourites at Helsinki, but ran a bad race and was outkicked by Cram, Scott, and as said, Ovett made up about 20 meters on him in the last 300m, despite being knocked off the track. Aouita had still done nothing to suggest he was anything but a 1500m time trialler. He ran a fast 1500m in Hengelo before LA, which nobody witnessed other than Ventolin.

Even in 85, when he ran Cram close to the WR, the talk before the race was all about Cruz, and whether Cram was in any kind of shape to challenge him.

It was pretty clear from the semifinals that it was likely between Coe and Cram, with Abascal and Scott for bronze. Cram looked back to his very best, and Coe was clearly relaxing and letting Scott past in a fast semi after running four 800m rounds (and a 1500m heat) just days before.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD0WRN3iuSI

Coevett wrote:

We can all watch the race and it's clear at no point was Coe boxed in. Cram attempted to go past Coe and Coe responded immediately. Even Ventolin wouldn't deny this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_knoba0woA

Thanks for verifying that. I have no idea what version of the race the previous poster was watching!?

Coevett wrote:

Rod Dixon had already gone from 1500 to the marathon in his career with a fair degree of success.

So yesterday I was looking up Gammoudi and the claims that he was the world cross country champion back in the 1960s (it was called the 'International Cross Country' back then) and I noticed Dixon was 3rd in 1973 as a miler and 9 years later he was 3rd again as a marathoner.

Coevett wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTuGCLDUgUY&t=155s

Ovett ran terrible tactics in this race, going by his last lap he should have medalled.