What kind of fitness gap are you talking about though? Jakob leading and Cole pacing off of him? Or Jakob and Cole getting equal amount of pacing?
Both ran their respective 3000m times in ideally paced conditions. I'm just saying that Jakob is a serial time trialer and I have greater confidence that the 7:17 was an optimised performance for him. 7:23 for Hocker was in the winter, and indoors, and Hocker isn't a serial time trialer. It's possible that "September '25 Hocker" could be in better shape than 7:23 if run outdoors in optimised conditions / with wave light pacing, etc.
Not saying Hocker is a 717 guy, but I think the fitness gap is narrower than 5 seconds.
That's the thing I think people (including and perhaps especially his competitors) have underestimated about Hocker - both in Paris and Tokyo.
Running indoors on a modern bouncy super track isn't the disadvantage you seem to think it is. 8 of the all time top 15 indoor mile times came from a single race at this years Millrose games, and I don't think Gary Martin out Andrew Coscoran are fighting for any global outdoor medals any time soon.
What kind of fitness gap are you talking about though? Jakob leading and Cole pacing off of him? Or Jakob and Cole getting equal amount of pacing?
Both ran their respective 3000m times in ideally paced conditions. I'm just saying that Jakob is a serial time trialer and I have greater confidence that the 7:17 was an optimised performance for him. 7:23 for Hocker was in the winter, and indoors, and Hocker isn't a serial time trialer. It's possible that "September '25 Hocker" could be in better shape than 7:23 if run outdoors in optimised conditions / with wave light pacing, etc.
Not saying Hocker is a 717 guy, but I think the fitness gap is narrower than 5 seconds.
That's the thing I think people (including and perhaps especially his competitors) have underestimated about Hocker - both in Paris and Tokyo.
Then they will say Jakob could've run 7:15, and Hocker ran 13:09 in a 12:44 in June....blah blah blah. It's a losing battle, as glazers are blind, not to be confused with normal fans btw. I'm a fan, but I'm not gonna think he's invincible even in top shape. I dislike Kerr, but I think he hit the bullseye when he said: "he (Jakob) is surrounded by too many yes-men, he doesn't know he has weaknesses"
Both ran their respective 3000m times in ideally paced conditions. I'm just saying that Jakob is a serial time trialer and I have greater confidence that the 7:17 was an optimised performance for him. 7:23 for Hocker was in the winter, and indoors, and Hocker isn't a serial time trialer. It's possible that "September '25 Hocker" could be in better shape than 7:23 if run outdoors in optimised conditions / with wave light pacing, etc.
Not saying Hocker is a 717 guy, but I think the fitness gap is narrower than 5 seconds.
That's the thing I think people (including and perhaps especially his competitors) have underestimated about Hocker - both in Paris and Tokyo.
Then they will say Jakob could've run 7:15, and Hocker ran 13:09 in a 12:44 in June....blah blah blah. It's a losing battle, as glazers are blind, not to be confused with normal fans btw. I'm a fan, but I'm not gonna think he's invincible even in top shape. I dislike Kerr, but I think he hit the bullseye when he said: "he (Jakob) is surrounded by too many yes-men, he doesn't know he has weaknesses"
The discussion so far has been "Hocker in the best shape of his life was only 4 seconds faster than Jakob in the worst shape in his life", "Those four seconds came from the last lap", "Jakob can close a race as fast or faster than Hocker, as he's shown in previous races and because he's the fastest man in history at every distance from 1500 to 3200 meters", and that's the point where it usually fizzles out.
Both ran their respective 3000m times in ideally paced conditions. I'm just saying that Jakob is a serial time trialer and I have greater confidence that the 7:17 was an optimised performance for him. 7:23 for Hocker was in the winter, and indoors, and Hocker isn't a serial time trialer. It's possible that "September '25 Hocker" could be in better shape than 7:23 if run outdoors in optimised conditions / with wave light pacing, etc.
Not saying Hocker is a 717 guy, but I think the fitness gap is narrower than 5 seconds.
That's the thing I think people (including and perhaps especially his competitors) have underestimated about Hocker - both in Paris and Tokyo.
Then they will say Jakob could've run 7:15, and Hocker ran 13:09 in a 12:44 in June....blah blah blah. It's a losing battle, as glazers are blind, not to be confused with normal fans btw. I'm a fan, but I'm not gonna think he's invincible even in top shape. I dislike Kerr, but I think he hit the bullseye when he said: "he (Jakob) is surrounded by too many yes-men, he doesn't know he has weaknesses"
Then they will say Jakob could've run 7:15, and Hocker ran 13:09 in a 12:44 in June....blah blah blah. It's a losing battle, as glazers are blind, not to be confused with normal fans btw. I'm a fan, but I'm not gonna think he's invincible even in top shape. I dislike Kerr, but I think he hit the bullseye when he said: "he (Jakob) is surrounded by too many yes-men, he doesn't know he has weaknesses"
You seem to think Hocker’s invincible
my first post here:
Curious_Cat wrote: I would say 7:3 Hocker:Jakob Jakob would really need to grind Cole down with 12:50 pace before the bell lap, presumably teaming up with the likes of Gebriwet, Young and Fisher, otherwise I can't see he could survive Hocker's devastating kick. Edit: that said, it could well be recency bias on my part, as I'm still stunned by the finish. I've never seen anything like that in a championship 5k.
My prediction before the final: Final prediction: 1.Hocker: looked horrifically comfortable in the heat, despite its being much faster than the other one, will run on pure hate. Assuming he's in shape tomorrow (big if), he should have the best kick for anything above 13:10. Would still be a great threat in the range of 13:00-13:10. Not sure how he holds up in sub-13, but overall wouldn't be surprised to see him shock the world once again since Paris.
>>>
If that sounds like I think he's invincible, then you may want to look up the word "invincible" in a dictionary.
For me, his 5k win has an asterisk. I can’t crown him as the best unless he beats Peak Jakob.
You deserve to be downvoted to oblivion, nobody who wins a gold medal at a global championships deserves to have an asterisk, including Centro.
But.......against peak Jakob he probably loses. Since everyone loves to talk about kicks, let's see who actually has the best kick. Kick, to me, is the last kilometer really. Anyone who wins a race on a last lap sprint cannot have the best kick of all time in the 5000. But, to make it fair, let's start with the last 400m.
Of the last 34 global 5000m championships (Starting at the Olympic Games 1972), the only winners to have run a sub 54 second last lap are (will include sub 13 races too even if the last lap wasn't sub 54):
That is already 20 out of 34 races either in sub 54 or sub 13. Now of these 20, the only ones to close in a sub 2:23 final K are (will still include sub 13 races):
1999 (won't include it, too far back, and final K was like 2:28 or something) 2003: Eliud Kipchoge - 2:24.33 winning times: 12:52.79 2008: Kenenisa Bekele - 2:25.30 winning time: 12:57.82 2013 - Mo Farah - 2:22.28 winning time 13:26.98 2015 - Mo Farah - 2:19.22 winning time 13:50 2017 - Muktar Edris - 2:21.04 winning time: 13:32.79 2019- Muktar Edris - 2:24.3 winning time: 12:58.85 2021 -Josh Cheptegei - 2:25.35 winning time: 12:58.15 2023- Jakob - 2:21.07 winning time: 13:11.30 2024 - Jakob - 2:21.1 winning time: 13:13.66 2025 - Hocker - 2:25.31 winning time: 12:58.30
Now if we narrow it down to sub 5 final 2000m (still including sub 13 races):
2003: Eliud Kipchoge - 5:07 winning time 12:52.79 2008: Kenenisa Bekele - 4:56.97 winning time 12:57.82 2013 Mo Farah - 4:59.19 winning time 13:26.98 2017 Muktar Edris - 4:59.27 winning time: 13:32.79 2019 Muktar Edris - 5:05 winning time: 12:58.85 2021 Josh Cheptegei 5:03 winning time: 12:58.15 2023 Jakob 4:56.69 Winning time 13:11.30 2024 Jakob 4:55.4 Winning time 13:13.66 2025 Hocker: 5:05.48 Winning time 12:58.30
Lastly, let's rank all of them by the fastest last 3k: 2013 Mo Farah: 7:48.87 2003 Eliud Kipchoge: 7:45.93 2017 Muktar Edris: 7:44.51 2019 Muktar Edris: 7:43.51 2021 Josh Cheptegei 7:43.15 2025 Hocker: 7:41.75 2008 Kenenisa Bekele - 7:35.53 2024 Jakob: 7:35.4 2023 Jakob: 7:34.45
So now, take a look at all of Jakobs splits, he has the fastest final 400m out of any runner in championship history other than Lagat (But his finishing time was 13:45 and we can all agree that is obscenely slow). He also has the fastest last kilometer out of any runner other than Farah (13:50) and Edris (13:32.79). He also has the fastest last 2k out of any other runner in history x2. And lastly, he has the fastest final 3k in history x2.
Anyone trying to make the claim that he has "no shot" against Hocker is simply a moron. Jakob may possibly have the greatest 5000m kick of all time. To suggest that Hocker beats him easily is a mockery of the sport. The ONLY runner in history who would have beat him in Budapest and Paris was Bekele as he arguably has the most impressive one off performance in championship 5000m history (2008). BUT, I think in a traditional final 2k burnup, Jakob will win every time. Hocker just isn't there yet. He has the finish for 400m, but there are other guys who can run significantly faster over the final Km, 2km, and 3km.
Side note: Edris is extremely underrated. His finishes in 2017/2019 are actually fantastic, among the best ever.