Would Hocker have beaten peak Jakob today in 5k?

Then they will say Jakob could've run 7:15, and Hocker ran 13:09 in a 12:44 in June....blah blah blah. It's a losing battle, as glazers are blind, not to be confused with normal fans btw. I'm a fan, but I'm not gonna think he's invincible even in top shape. I dislike Kerr, but I think he hit the bullseye when he said: "he (Jakob) is surrounded by too many yes-men, he doesn't know he has weaknesses"

The discussion so far has been "Hocker in the best shape of his life was only 4 seconds faster than Jakob in the worst shape in his life", "Those four seconds came from the last lap", "Jakob can close a race as fast or faster than Hocker, as he's shown in previous races and because he's the fastest man in history at every distance from 1500 to 3200 meters", and that's the point where it usually fizzles out.

You seem to think Hocker’s invincible

my first post here:

Curious_Cat wrote:
I would say 7:3 Hocker:Jakob
Jakob would really need to grind Cole down with 12:50 pace before the bell lap,
presumably teaming up with the likes of Gebriwet, Young and Fisher, otherwise I can't see he could survive Hocker's devastating kick.
Edit: that said, it could well be recency bias on my part, as I'm still stunned by the finish. I've never seen anything like that in a championship 5k.

My prediction before the final:
Final prediction:
1.Hocker: looked horrifically comfortable in the heat, despite its being much faster than the other one, will run on pure hate. Assuming he's in shape tomorrow (big if), he should have the best kick for anything above 13:10. Would still be a great threat in the range of 13:00-13:10. Not sure how he holds up in sub-13, but overall wouldn't be surprised to see him shock the world once again since Paris.

>>>

If that sounds like I think he's invincible, then you may want to look up the word "invincible" in a dictionary.

You deserve to be downvoted to oblivion, nobody who wins a gold medal at a global championships deserves to have an asterisk, including Centro.

But.......against peak Jakob he probably loses. Since everyone loves to talk about kicks, let's see who actually has the best kick. Kick, to me, is the last kilometer really. Anyone who wins a race on a last lap sprint cannot have the best kick of all time in the 5000. But, to make it fair, let's start with the last 400m.

Of the last 34 global 5000m championships (Starting at the Olympic Games 1972), the only winners to have run a sub 54 second last lap are (will include sub 13 races too even if the last lap wasn't sub 54):

1987- Said Aouita 52.92 Winning Time: 13:26.44
1999 - Salah Hissou 56.19 Winning time: 12:58.13
2003 - Eliud Kipchoge 53.4 Winning time: 12:52.79
2004 - El Guerrouj 52.6 Winning times 13:14.40
2005 - Benjamin Limo 53.6 Winning times: 13:32.55
2007 - Bernard Lagat 52.1-52.0 Winning times: 13:45.87
2008 - kenenisa Bekele 53.87 winning times: 12:57.82
2009 - Keneneisa Bekele 53.71 winning times: 13:17.09
2011 - Mo Farah 52.51 winning time: 13:23.36
2012 - Mo Farah 52.94 winning time: 13:41.66
2013 - Mo Farah 53.44 winning time: 13:26.98
2015 - Mofarah 52.67 winning time: 13:50
2016 - Mo Farh 52.9 winning time: 13:03.3
2017 - Muktar Edris - 52.5 winning time: 13:32.79
2019 - Muktar Edris - 55 winning time: 12:58.85
2021 - Josh Cheptegei - 55.05 winning time: 12:58.15
2022 - Jakob - 53.93 - winning time 13:09.24
2023 - Jakob - 52.45 winning time: 13:11.3
2024 - Jakob - 53.2 winning time: 13:13.66
2025 - Hocker - 52.62 winning time: 12:58.30

That is already 20 out of 34 races either in sub 54 or sub 13. Now of these 20, the only ones to close in a sub 2:23 final K are (will still include sub 13 races):

1999 (won't include it, too far back, and final K was like 2:28 or something)
2003: Eliud Kipchoge - 2:24.33 winning times: 12:52.79
2008: Kenenisa Bekele - 2:25.30 winning time: 12:57.82
2013 - Mo Farah - 2:22.28 winning time 13:26.98
2015 - Mo Farah - 2:19.22 winning time 13:50
2017 - Muktar Edris - 2:21.04 winning time: 13:32.79
2019- Muktar Edris - 2:24.3 winning time: 12:58.85
2021 -Josh Cheptegei - 2:25.35 winning time: 12:58.15
2023- Jakob - 2:21.07 winning time: 13:11.30
2024 - Jakob - 2:21.1 winning time: 13:13.66
2025 - Hocker - 2:25.31 winning time: 12:58.30

Now if we narrow it down to sub 5 final 2000m (still including sub 13 races):

2003: Eliud Kipchoge - 5:07 winning time 12:52.79
2008: Kenenisa Bekele - 4:56.97 winning time 12:57.82
2013 Mo Farah - 4:59.19 winning time 13:26.98
2017 Muktar Edris - 4:59.27 winning time: 13:32.79
2019 Muktar Edris - 5:05 winning time: 12:58.85
2021 Josh Cheptegei 5:03 winning time: 12:58.15
2023 Jakob 4:56.69 Winning time 13:11.30
2024 Jakob 4:55.4 Winning time 13:13.66
2025 Hocker: 5:05.48 Winning time 12:58.30

Lastly, let's rank all of them by the fastest last 3k:
2013 Mo Farah: 7:48.87
2003 Eliud Kipchoge: 7:45.93
2017 Muktar Edris: 7:44.51
2019 Muktar Edris: 7:43.51
2021 Josh Cheptegei 7:43.15
2025 Hocker: 7:41.75
2008 Kenenisa Bekele - 7:35.53
2024 Jakob: 7:35.4
2023 Jakob: 7:34.45

So now, take a look at all of Jakobs splits, he has the fastest final 400m out of any runner in championship history other than Lagat (But his finishing time was 13:45 and we can all agree that is obscenely slow). He also has the fastest last kilometer out of any runner other than Farah (13:50) and Edris (13:32.79). He also has the fastest last 2k out of any other runner in history x2. And lastly, he has the fastest final 3k in history x2.

Anyone trying to make the claim that he has "no shot" against Hocker is simply a moron. Jakob may possibly have the greatest 5000m kick of all time. To suggest that Hocker beats him easily is a mockery of the sport. The ONLY runner in history who would have beat him in Budapest and Paris was Bekele as he arguably has the most impressive one off performance in championship 5000m history (2008). BUT, I think in a traditional final 2k burnup, Jakob will win every time. Hocker just isn't there yet. He has the finish for 400m, but there are other guys who can run significantly faster over the final Km, 2km, and 3km.

Side note: Edris is extremely underrated. His finishes in 2017/2019 are actually fantastic, among the best ever.

Hopefully since no worlds next year Jakob goes after 1500 and 5000 WR

Jakob is very well aware of his weaknesses -before Paris OG 1500m he said that he might be his own worst enemy, and that turned out to be true… But he also knows a lot of his own strengths. How are we to tell him that he has to find the correct balance between those two insights in every race -not that easy…

Hocker had far better conditions in his 3000m indoor race than Jakob in his WR outdoors. -The former was paced way longer (behind Fisher). But saying that, Cole also contributed to the pace in the end of that race, and was thus important for the WR. But the sharp bends indoors aren’t at all the same disadvantage as in the mile (not to speak as in the 2-800m) -the warm conditions in Silesia was probably way more problematic than any bends…

"Both ran their respective times in ideally paced conditions"!?

Jakob front ran around the last 1050m.

Hocker front ran around the last 600m.

Do you agree that Hockers conditions were more "ideal" than Jakob´s.

I think this is a great post which makes it very probable that Jakob in top shape would have beaten Hocker in Tokyo 2025 if he fore example had run a fast last 1000m.

By the way: Why do you think Bekele in 2008 shape would be faster than Jakob in 2024 shape?

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I will take another approach to try to convince McRunnin that Jakob would come out on top by running a fas last 1000m.

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First: McRunnin has in one of his numerous posts questioned how fast Jakob could have run after a 4000m in 10:32 as in the Tokyo final.

To evaluate this 4000m time I have taken a look on Jakob´s 3000m WR race where he ran the first 2000m in 4:55.21 and the last 1000m in 2:34. How fast is a 4:55.21 compared to a 4000m?

Well, 2000m in 4:55.21 gives 1181 IAAF ranking points which equals 7:39.25 in the 3000m and 13.07.75 in the 5000m.

2000m in 4:55.21 is 59.07 per lap

3000m in 7:39.25 is 61.23 per lap

5000m in 13:07.75 is 63.02 per lap

I estimate that an equal 4000m would be around 62.40 per lap since the pace decreases degressively as the distance increases.

4000m at 62.40 per lap gives 10:24, that is just over 8 seconds slower than Jakob´s first 2000m in Silesia 2024 INDICATES.

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Second: I estimate that Jakob in top shape as in Silesia 2024 could have run at least 2:21 flat in the last 1000m in Tokyo (a bit more than 1 sec faster than in Silesia) because the first 4000m in Tokyo was significantly less taxing than his first 2000m in Silesia.

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Third: McRunnin has called for a detailled description of how the Tokyo final would have played out with Jakob in top shape:

Jakob could have stayed behind at the rail for the first many laps saving his energy (what he actually did). He could have gone to the front at 4000m ( a little later than he actually did).

He could have run 29 from 4000m to 4200m, 57 for the next lap and 55 for the last lap ending on a finish time of 12:53.16 (Jakob was 10:32.16 at 4000m).

I think Hocker could have run about 2 sec faster 1000m in Tokyo than he did (he ran 2:25.31) if he runs faster from 4000m to 4800m and slower on the last lap. Which gives him a finish time of 12:56.30.

Hocker and the field would have hanged on for a while but the field would then start to fall apart and Hocker would not be not be in contact at he bell. He could have run 29 sec 4000m to 4200m, then 58 sec and a final lap in 56.31. Remember Hocker was 0.83 seconds behind Jakob at 4000m.

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Fourth: McRunning wrote in one of his posts that Hocker beat a field of world class runners which is true BUT................... when Jakob is in shape his is not only beating the same runners; he is DESTROYING them.

Do I think that Gressier and Kimeli were in the shape of their life (so far) in Tokyo?

Yes, but they are still not on Jakob´s top level in the 3000m and the 5000m (and probably neither in the 10000m).

Just saw this. You make good points, but some caveats:

1) I wouldn't be so sure that Jakob stands no chance against Hocker even if the next 1600m was run in 4:12. If Jakob were at the front, he would merely need a 53.6 or better to win the race. Do you think he can run that? Because I sure do. Is Hocker prepared to run 51.xx for the last 400 then?

2) I think you are neglecting the speed at which Jakob finished the "far slower race." Some other poster posted the splits of every championship, but in Budapest, Jakob finished with a 7:35 last 3k, 4:55 last 2k, 2:21 last k, and then the 52.45 last lap you posted. Nobody has ever finished that fast in any comparable race in a championship final ever other than Bekele. I would be hard pressed to find any 5000m professional race that finished with a burnup over the last 7 last laps as hard as that.

It's an interesting scenario, but I think Jakob has more pathways to victory than you described.

....

The points for his 3000m WR doesn't mean he could automatically run 12:30. The 3000m is definitely his sweet spot since he still consider himself a miler; therefore, the 5000m PB would be more in the 12:35 to 12:38 range. Regardless tactical Championship races aren't always won by the fastest PB, and let's not forget Cole's 3000m indoor on is not too far off Jacob's 3000m WR. Theoretically Cole is also a sub 12:44 guy.

I mean…if you place peak Jakob to the 2025 version of him in the race, he would only need a 53.8 to win the race (he wouldn’t let up the lead with a lap to go). So then the question becomes do you think he can close that fast in a 12:57 race. I certainly do.

Doesn't Kerr literally hire "Yes" men? Coach, Assistant Coach, Trainer, Chef, PR?

In that race, the way it was run in Tokyo, Hocker would have kicked down Jakob. Period.

But in the way it was run in Tokyo, Hocker was like 10th with a lap to go, nearly 1.2 seconds behind the leader. So you don’t think Jakob can close in a 53.8 from the front?

“Jakob surrounded by too many yes men”? -I really disagree: First he had to fight both his older brothers (one being his coach, one being his agent) to attend the WC indoor champs. (After fighting them also prior to his HM debut). And then it pretty much was the same all over again in Tokyo WC… And the rest of the “yes men”? -Pretty sure the Norwegian team’s main MD and the head physiotherapist also were critical (to say the least) to Jakob’s decisions. As goes for the Sport director and his assistant (all this based on Jakob’s underlining of himself basically being the only who thought he should/could race).

Heck-even his wife, who fully supports him isn’t a push over. Plenty of incidents (e.g in “Ingebrigtsen Born to run”) where she tells him a thing or two or three…

Jakob beat a better field than Hocker in Budapest

2nd place: Mo Katir vs Isaac Kimeli, Katir wins

3rd place: Jacob Krop vs Jimmy Gressier, Krop wins

4th place: Luis Grijalva vs Ky Robinson, Grijalva wins

5th place: Yomif Kejelcha vs Biniam Mehary, Kejelcha wins

6th place: Hagos Gebriwhet vs Nico Young, Gebriwhet wins

7th place: Mohammed Ahmed vs Birhanu Balew, Balew wins

8th place: Berihu Aregawi vs Grant Fisher, Aregawi wins

9th place: Jimmy Gressier vs Yann Schrub, Gressier wins

10th place: Ishmael Kipkurui vs Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Jakob wins

8-2 in Budapest’ favor. Jakob beat a better field.

The conversation wasn’t did Jakob beat a better field, it’s whether Hocker would’ve beat him, and that answer is yes.

Is this another way of saying you are coping?