I think this is a great post which makes it very probable that Jakob in top shape would have beaten Hocker in Tokyo 2025 if he fore example had run a fast last 1000m.
By the way: Why do you think Bekele in 2008 shape would be faster than Jakob in 2024 shape?
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I will take another approach to try to convince McRunnin that Jakob would come out on top by running a fas last 1000m.
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First: McRunnin has in one of his numerous posts questioned how fast Jakob could have run after a 4000m in 10:32 as in the Tokyo final.
To evaluate this 4000m time I have taken a look on Jakob´s 3000m WR race where he ran the first 2000m in 4:55.21 and the last 1000m in 2:34. How fast is a 4:55.21 compared to a 4000m?
Well, 2000m in 4:55.21 gives 1181 IAAF ranking points which equals 7:39.25 in the 3000m and 13.07.75 in the 5000m.
2000m in 4:55.21 is 59.07 per lap
3000m in 7:39.25 is 61.23 per lap
5000m in 13:07.75 is 63.02 per lap
I estimate that an equal 4000m would be around 62.40 per lap since the pace decreases degressively as the distance increases.
4000m at 62.40 per lap gives 10:24, that is just over 8 seconds slower than Jakob´s first 2000m in Silesia 2024 INDICATES.
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Second: I estimate that Jakob in top shape as in Silesia 2024 could have run at least 2:21 flat in the last 1000m in Tokyo (a bit more than 1 sec faster than in Silesia) because the first 4000m in Tokyo was significantly less taxing than his first 2000m in Silesia.
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Third: McRunnin has called for a detailled description of how the Tokyo final would have played out with Jakob in top shape:
Jakob could have stayed behind at the rail for the first many laps saving his energy (what he actually did). He could have gone to the front at 4000m ( a little later than he actually did).
He could have run 29 from 4000m to 4200m, 57 for the next lap and 55 for the last lap ending on a finish time of 12:53.16 (Jakob was 10:32.16 at 4000m).
I think Hocker could have run about 2 sec faster 1000m in Tokyo than he did (he ran 2:25.31) if he runs faster from 4000m to 4800m and slower on the last lap. Which gives him a finish time of 12:56.30.
Hocker and the field would have hanged on for a while but the field would then start to fall apart and Hocker would not be not be in contact at he bell. He could have run 29 sec 4000m to 4200m, then 58 sec and a final lap in 56.31. Remember Hocker was 0.83 seconds behind Jakob at 4000m.
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Fourth: McRunning wrote in one of his posts that Hocker beat a field of world class runners which is true BUT................... when Jakob is in shape his is not only beating the same runners; he is DESTROYING them.
Do I think that Gressier and Kimeli were in the shape of their life (so far) in Tokyo?
Yes, but they are still not on Jakob´s top level in the 3000m and the 5000m (and probably neither in the 10000m).