Yeah he said his methodology was 'average of the last three races'. I wish the interviewer had pressed a little more on any other factors he is weighting in his algorithm because it doesn't totally make sense in some cases. It sounds like he really really likes Valby & Cook and that is a factor.
Mccabe also ran a faster 3k than Valby and was strong in XC last year so who knows.
He did say several times that being at OK state is a big advantage for the OK state runners and was part of why he thinks Alex Meier from OK could win Men's listen.
Anyone know what his early season predictions were last year and how on they were?
I saved what I think was his last rating before the championship and he had BYU at 2/8/9/25/52 for 96 and NC State at 6/19/23/24/26 for 98....pretty good on NC State, a little optimistic on BYU's 3rd runner but otherwise pretty good - at least in terms of places.
Wood also predicted BYU men beating NAU despite every other ranking system favoring NAU.
Quite impressive.
Just for comparison here are LACCTICs top 20 prediction ahead of last championship. Again a lot of right things.
Mercy Chelangat 2nd Whittni Orton 1st Taylor Roe 5th Bethany Hasz 7th Kelsey Chmiel 6th Abby Nichols 8th Amaris Tyynismaa did not run Alison Pray ran out of gas last K Stefanie Parsons Hannah Steelman Amanda Vestri did not run Jenna Magness 14th Taryn O'Neill had a bad day Katelyn Tuohy 15th Cailie Logue 4th Joyce Kimeli Emily Covert 31st Julia Heymach 13th Anna Camp 12th Aubrey Frentheway predicted right with Camp similar to Wood
Thanks. He said on the pod that his ratings late season will be a lot more accurate and than early ones so that makes sense. I looked online trying to find his pre-season rankings last year but no luck.
An algorithm is only as good as the data it relies on. It sounds like with the Wood report it is averaging the last three races. But at this point that means going back to last season, which may not be reliable information anymore.
An algorithm is only as good as the data it relies on. It sounds like with the Wood report it is averaging the last three races. But at this point that means going back to last season, which may not be reliable information anymore.
Yes. Not looking for the actual code! Just a bit more color than 'average of the last 3 races' . Unless that is really all it is? (I hope not). In any case I think it is a cool site.
True. The guy who created lacctic algorithm said previous seasons shouldn’t be to heavily weighted.
I have to say, both of these are pretty good at what they do, LACCTIC has now tweaked his methodology a little. I really was curious about the methodology and factoring in trends seems like a rational approach. So I am not criticizing but rather trying to learn.
…these algorithm-based lists are interesting entertainment, but they provide no insight into ‘why’ someone finishes higher or lower than expected. People run with nagging ailments, stuff happens in races (like falling or losing a shoe/spike), others are recovering from previous injury (which people generally underestimate in terms of time to recover), and others have simply physically matured another year and we’re seeing that potential blossom.
These efforts (lacctic, wood) are really well done but I’d like to see/hear some additional research on what’s actually happening with some of these runners rather than listen to endless opinionating that lacks researched insight.
Well, after a 12 second margin of victory over Chelangat this morning at the Joe Piane Invite; AND obliterating the course record, I believe Tuohy will now be ranked #1 across the board on all ranking sites…
I kinda think tuohy is going to take it to another level? It'll be interesting to see who can hang...
Told ya so... Honestly analysts are a little slow on the uptake. I mean anyone with half a brain could see the tuohy is absolutely shredded and none of the other girls stand a chance! She'll break 15 this year. she'll break 403... come back win another cross country championship and then get ready for the Olympics
Who knows, these 'ranking' sites don't seem to follow any logic or methodology. They will assign a massive weighting to one single race (Cook) and place her top 5 in the country and ahead of Tuohy, and then ignore others. For example, I don't know where Olemomoi is ranked, but her 3rd place time was 5 seconds faster than Mercy's winning time last year at Joe Piane. And a 16:05 is a great time....therefore she should easily be ranked as a top 10, if not top 5 runner.
Anyway, I do agree though....I mentioned before that I expect Tuohy has something to prove this year in XC....Tuohy's performance today should be the proverbial 'glove-slap' statement to the rest of the NCAA XC runners. You have to know she wants that title...a 3:00 last km is strong, especially when she wasn't challenged in the end. Mercy ran a 2:56 last year in a sprint finish with Asekol for a 16:10 winning time.
This post was specifically meant to be in reply to “ContextisKing” because I completely agree…. I think Tuohy is going to do what no one else has done before, taking things to an entirely new level. Only this time, she has a team that she can actually take along with her for the adventure and together they’re going to accomplish things that we’ve never seen before. (In fact, we just caught a glimpse of that at the NCAA Outdoor Championships when we saw 5 NC State women toe the line in the 5,000m. Unprecedented).
It reminds me of what I posted a week or so ago:
“Interesting… The Wood Report has a bold simulator projection showing NC State with five (5) women in the top-8 in their early season projection!!! Overall, they have Parker Valby winning the title this year over Mercy Chelangat, with Katelyn Tuohy coming in 3rd. They show Taylor Roe coming in 4th on her home course. And then it gets very interesting… They are simulating NC State’s Samantha bush in 5th, NC State’s Sydney Seymour in 6th, NC State’s Kelsey Chmiel in 7th and NC State’s Marlee Starliper in 8th!!! Wow… If THAT all happens, that will be unprecedented…. 5 in the top 8???”
I’m actually thinking that something like this may very well happen… But, I think all the other ranking sites underestimate Tuohy; (other than now finally T&F News ranking putting her at the top), as I think that Tuohy will win the individual title, NC State will win the team title, and may very well have 5 women in the top-10. Something next level that we’ve never seen before.