Athing Mu now running the mile at Millrose - let the predictions begin

Which runners exactly are you wanting to exclude now? You said that improvement is not contingent upon the level of the runner but now you are you claiming that your statement only pertains to some small group? I will bet you any amount of money and you can select any female runner who has run 4:00 or faster. I get Mu. Mu will improve more in the 1500/mile than your runner.

You are a writer of fiction, not of fact:

- You insist Brazier is at least 2 seconds faster over the 400 than he has ever run in a race over the distance.

- You say Mu will break the world mark for the 800, which has withstood all assault for nearly 40 years and which she is still some distance from.

- You claim Mu can already run a world-class mile when her best so far is only good college level.

It is all very well to suggest these events you forecast may come to pass but what apparently escapes you is that none of them have so far happened. It is entirely conjecture on your part. So far they exist solely in your imagination. And then you choose to deride those like myself who suggest they may never happen - as though I am arguing the sun does not rise and set each day.

When those runners accomplish these feats I shall accept them as fact - but not while they only swirl in your fevered imagination. Your talking will not make them happen.

I am discussing the subject of the thread, not whatever takes your fancy.

versy tile wrote:

Which runners exactly are you wanting to exclude now? You said that improvement is not contingent upon the level of the runner but now you are you claiming that your statement only pertains to some small group? I will bet you any amount of money and you can select any female runner who has run 4:00 or faster. I get Mu. Mu will improve more in the 1500/mile than your runner.

I don't know what you are talking about. I didn't say what you think I did. My point is that although Mu has run slower times than the elite males who lopped a sizeable chunk off their best times that doesn't mean she has more room for improvement than they had. She can only run what she is capable of - which isn't determined or influenced by what anyone else has done.

versy tile wrote:

Maybe 3:28 but I am sticking with 3:29.

Are you talking about Mu? Over a mile? Or 3/4?

Epic duck there, pal. Especially given all the other tangents you’ve very willingly gone on in this thread that have ventured far from Mu’s mile potential. I think other posters here can see what you’re about.

Regardless, the reason you are discussing the subject of the thread so poorly is that you have NO CONTEXT.

THAT was the point of my asking about Nico and Jakob. I don’t actually want you to talk about them but to realize how absurd it is to only consider a “recorded time” absent any context.

You don’t consider weather, course conditions, indoor/outdoor venue, whether someone ran fresh or is doubling back, where someone is at in their training build-up, and so on. All things that any coach worthy of the name consider when evaluating their athlete’s performances, current fitness, and long-term needs and potential.

Brazier. You said that he wouldn't run 3:29. He could go 3:28 if he bumped up to 60 MPW but more likely 3:29 at 50 MPW later in career.

Speaking of an epic duck. You estimate what you think runners are capable of as though it is accomplished fact - but avoid acknowledging that is what you are doing.

So here's a reality test for you:

- has Brazier run faster than 46.91 in a 400 race?

- has Mu beaten the women's 800 world mark?

- has Mu run a world class mile time?

If they have, show me the money. If these events haven't happened on a track somewhere they remain a fantasy. Yours.

versy tile wrote:

Brazier. You said that he wouldn't run 3:29. He could go 3:28 if he bumped up to 60 MPW but more likely 3:29 at 50 MPW later in career.

I guess we will never know, will we?

FACT: Brazier split at least 45.7 twice as a 19-year old freshman. One was run an hour after his CR 800 of 1:43. I provided a link already. Here’s another instance:

FACT: Most speed-based male athletes with good training improve their 400 capability when they are 24 compared with when they were 19. Brazier is demonstrably more developed, muscular, and powerful as a 24-year old than he was as a 19-year old and his times at 800 have improved considerably.

FACT: I have NEVER, here or elsewhere, said that Mu WILL break the 800 WR.

(Seriously, you made the charge; now back it up. Find where I said that in a prior post.)

While I do believe that Mu has the potential to do that, if I was forced to bet now, would probably say it won’t happen. To run something of that caliber will require everything coming together just right and that is really hard to pull off.

FACT: I have predicted that Mu will run under 4:27 tomorrow. If that counts as “world-class” to you, then I guess I’m predicting that Mu can already run a “world-class” mile.

I have not predicted that she will win the race or that she will break 4:20. I do think if she trained solidly for the mile for 2 years that she could have that kind of potential.

IMPORTANT SIDE NOTE: Despite your obliviousness to this obvious fact, human bodies are not static entities. They can be trained and adapt. Capacities can improve or shrink. Percentages of muscle fibers can change with sustained training, which is precisely why athletes and coaches are so deliberate when considering a transition up in distance. Moving to sustained marathon training, for example, likely will change an athlete’s physiology such that world-class performances at 5K and below are no longer possible.

What you don’t seem to get is that if Brazier changed his 28 miles per week training approach (with 8 miles being the longest he’s ever run in a single session!) to something more mile-specific in its volume and structure that his body would adapt accordingly. Capacities could be developed, muscle fiber percentages can change, etc. He would probably lose a bit of his 400 capacity in the process but he has far more of that to spare than pretty much every other miler in the world. He definitely could take seconds off his current 1500 PB if he made that switch.

To deny this is to hold that the miler training programs of the best coaches in the world don’t work and could never get him notable improvement at the distance.

Here’s an idea: take a survey of the top 1500 coaches in the world and ask them if they would like to work with Brazier at 1500 development or if they think it would be a waste of time and energy. What do you think would be the response when you make your “case” (read: mere assertion) that he had no world-class potential at 1500 so why bother? I’m guessing rolling on the floor laughter or a long incredulous stare.

Of course, why would Brazier go all in on that longer-term 1500/ mile project (yet) when he is clearly still the best 800 runner in the world when fully healthy?

And, likewise, why would Mu go all-in NOW on a similar project when she’s fast enough to potentially win 3 Olympic golds if the schedule allowed it?

But, again, I guarantee you that if Mu said she was only going to continue in the sport as a 1500/miler that every such coach in the country would be lining up to work with her. No credible coach would look at her, her talent, and her history since 14 and buy your theories that she could never be world-class at 1500.

Perhaps you should look up the difference between a prediction and a fact. You treat them as though they are the same.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Perhaps you should look up the difference between a prediction and a fact. You treat them as though they are the same.

Geez, you’re insufferable. Stop ducking. Which stated fact was not a fact?!

I provided links on Brazier’s body (at least) twice covering 400 meters in at least 45.7 seconds as a 19-year old doubling back from an 800. And then I made a sensible argument for why the 24-year old version of Brazier running a fresh relay leg could run faster.

You can disagree with the second claim, I guess, despite the obvious (and readily explainable) improvement in performance among the vast majority of male 400/800 runners between 19 and 24. (Do you seriously think that male 400/800 runners peak at 19?!)

You cannot deny the first claim, though.

You also charged me with claiming Mu WILL break the 800 WR but have provided no evidence where I ever said that. Because I haven’t. Here or elsewhere. And I just gave you my prediction that she probably WON’T just because of the difficulty of getting everything arranged right at the right time. Find a quote where I said otherwise or STHU.

Finally, if you consider anything 4:26.99 or faster to be “world-class,” then, yes, I’m predicting that Mu will run a “world-class” performance in the mile tomorrow. If your standards for a “world-class” women’s mile are faster than that, then I’m not necessarily making that prediction.

Seriously, start responding in good faith and stop conveniently ducking the main point of everything I’m saying in response.

Many predictions are facts. She will break 4:30 tomorrow. Check back after her race.

everyone's dad wrote:

Many predictions are facts. She will break 4:30 tomorrow. Check back after her race.

I see you don't know the difference either.

- So you think Brazier must get faster as he matures. Well his best 400m was run at age 21, when he recorded 46.91, which was an improvement on 47.02 a couple of years previously. His best relay times still only convert to 46-mid at best. Does that show he is a world class 400m runner - or even that he has that potential? He is no faster than Coe was over the distance. I tend to think if Brazier had that capacity to be world-class over the 400m he would have regularly run the distance, like Juantorena did. But Brazier doesn't. For good reason.

- I see you are now saying Mu is unlikely to break the world 800m mark. If that is so we are on the same page so it is difficult to see what you are getting so indignant about when I say the same. So what exactly are you disputing?

- I am not saying 4 26.99 is world-class for a woman's mile so I don't agree that if Mu runs that she has become a "world-class" miler. But my pick - like that of a lot of other posters - is closer to 4.28-29. But that, too, is only a prediction and not a fact. Like yours.

You posts are mostly conjecture about what you think given runners are capable of - and that is ok - but you can hardly maintain that any differing view must be wrong when those athletes have yet to fulfil your predictions and may never do so. It appears that what you find "insufferable" is having your opinions challenged.

I watched Mu's 4.37.99 mile (so it is actually closer to 4.38) and for most of the race it did look like jog. She was running 35sec laps (70 sec quarters) till the last couple of laps. But that is how I would expect a speed-based runner to do it - to conserve energy. Her last 200 was in the region of 30 secs - coming off a series of 35's. But is that really fast for a runner capable of 49-low for the 400 and 1.55 for the 800? To me, she looked like she was pushing it hard for the last lap and at the finish she showed it had taken quite a bit of effort. She certainly didn't have another 10 secs up her sleeve that day and it may be asking a lot of her to produce that kind of improvement only a couple of weeks later. I would be astonished if it's more than that. We shall see.

English is clearly not your first language because you are always incorrect when it comes to legal arguments and now you don't even understand a basic word. I am going to watch Milrose today. That hasn't happened yet but it can be verified.

fact - a thing proved to be true.

She's running 4:19.76

i've put forth similar arguments with this man before realising he is a barely functioning autist.