Select BTC Runners Chasing 10k Standards @ The TEN (2/20) - Official Discussion Thread

Gotta toot my own horn on this prediction. Didn’t quite see Crany coming out of no where but Karissa crushes it and Gwen goes home devastated.

RuningManJumpSuit wrote:

I'm changing my Karissa prediction - I'm going big.

I'm saying she get the American Record. 30:10

RuningManJumpSuit wrote:

*My guess on Gwen J. is she'll run an underwhelming 32:45

I also think Karissa will break 31min

RuningManJumpSuit wrote:

Gotta toot my own horn on this prediction. Didn’t quite see Crany coming out of no where but Karissa crushes it and Gwen goes home devastated.

RuningManJumpSuit wrote:

I'm changing my Karissa prediction - I'm going big.

I'm saying she get the American Record. 30:10

Your parents must be proud.

They printed out the post and it’s hanging on the fridge!

dumazz wrote:

RuningManJumpSuit wrote:

Gotta toot my own horn on this prediction. Didn’t quite see Crany coming out of no where but Karissa crushes it and Gwen goes home devastated.

Your parents must be proud.

2 the gills!!

running2begood wrote:

you gotta feel bad for jenkins who will get smacked by BTC on whatever distance he chooses

I disagree. Jenkins ran 27:22 and won his races couple months ago. Put him in this race and he runs closer to 27:15.

What really matters now is the trials. I think he goes with 10k it’s gonna come down to a kick and you’ll have basically Jenkins, True, and a handful of BTC guys.

I don’t know about you but I’m taking Jenkins kick any day of the week. Especially considering he works in the same training group as DB and Engels with a coach known for focusing on finishing speed.

I don’t think Jenkins will run the 5k because of the risk/reward. But even then I would definitely say he has a shot at making the team. This past year has been one of his best since 2015/16

michiganrunner55 wrote:

... Trust me the training they do, nutrition, strength training, form drills etc etc he puts in the work. ...

Everyone trains hard, everyone does the little things, everyone "puts in the work". This is not an argument.

Under normal circumstances, a country of our size with the funds of one of the top sports companies in the world should produce world beaters in distance running. Add in the shoe effect and ongoing (legal) improvments in recovery, fitness, technology, etc., there is no reason why we can't have more and more records in these events.

That said, I know there are dopers and there could very well be some on BTC, the new NOP, etc. It just that given above, it's not just doping that could explain it.

I do think it's the Covid effect (can't go anywhere, fewer distractions) and the shoes plus whatever they were doing before, whether it was illegel or legal methods.

Very solid forecasting overall.

Winning times just about dead on. The field was a bit faster than your predictions, particularly True and Tuntivate. Cranny over Schweizer (unexpected!!) and some DNFs (which is par for the course in a 10k).

The thing about being in a high-performance environment in a well-resourced group is that you can make legal performance gains through cutting edge sports science, recovery, and shoe tech that a less-resourced group can only get from doping. This is one of the reason that the culture in developed, well-resourced nations and training groups is so strongly anti-doping; good anti-doping makes their legal gains larger relative to gains that can be made through illegal doping without being caught.

hoy-yes wrote:

I do think it's the Covid effect (can't go anywhere, fewer distractions) and the shoes plus whatever they were doing before, whether it was illegel or legal methods.

Agree. I think it's mostly the COVID effect. For many of these athletes, especially the college kids, it's the first time they've actually been professional (distinct from being paid to run) and are taking care of their bodies and not getting staying out late, getting sloshed every couple weeks.

badger miler wrote:

Cheserek also confirmed.

Look for extremely low 27, if not sub 27 from Kincaid and Scott. We already know that Kincaid turned the corner in 2019; but Scott seems to have also ratcheted it up a notch.

Odd to see people bîtching about something like this.

What part of Kincaid's 3000m in AZ makes you think he can run extremely low 27/sub 27?

Looks like the badger miler knows what's up.

Alright, so we enjoyed some nice TT this weekend and saw some breakout PR's. It's great to see fast races continue and really cool to see all five guys in that 10,000m have real story lines behind their success:

Scott - Britain's distance king-to-be showing his continued talent. He ran 3:35 and 60:43 in a span of 54 days last year. For ref, in similar spans: Mo ran 3:31 and 60:04 in 2016: 3:29 and 59:22 in 2015 and 3:28 and 60:10 in 2013.

Fisher - Another big proof of greatness, on his 8 year trajectory of being a top talent. Big things will continue to come.

Kincaid - A statement of fact that 12:58 was no one-hit-wonder. I'd like to see Woody race more and proved himself on the track, but this is all boding well for a future on the roads.

True - Redemption for himself and something of a fist pump for all of us older Millennials who feel like we're TRULY not 18 or 22 or 28 anymore. True has been pretty solidly consistent from Mile-10,000m for the last 9 years. Not a ton of hardware, but a great competitor and frequent racer.

Tuntivate - Obviously this kid was a big talent out of HS, but his NCAA performances didn't point this direction. Huge improvement, NR and positive story for many post-NCAA dreamers.

My question is: who, at a pro level, is next to drop a bombshell PR and ascend to the next level?

what event group?

Sean McGorty is already there and will continue to improve.

Wonder if the steeple is in his future. Bet he could be the best in the US in the steeple.

Good question on who is next: I'd say McGorty is ready to drop a big time in the 1500-10,000m and then Keira D'Amato in the 10,000m, and I'm thinking she scares the 31:00 barrier. A bit of miss not running this 10,000m race with Infeld, etc.

What about Mo Ahmed? I think he would have been bonkers 26:50.