Fauci is full of baloney

joedirtty wrote:

Based upon the number of deaths and an IFR of 0.26%, then about 1/3 of Americans have already had COVID (40% or more would not have known they had it, a larger number would have had minor symptoms and not gotten tested and a number would have had symptoms not considered severe enough early in the pandemic to warrant a test and would not have received a test). Odds are we all know loads of people that either had or have COVID.

Well I disagree with you about the IFR a bit, but we’re not talking about orders of magnitude. Another thing to note, is that infections, and two perhaps a greater than proportional extent, fatalities are going to cluster. So we will not have an even distribution even within communities

Harambe wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

It ain't that better diagnosis BS, that's for sure.

We did not have autistic kids when I was a kid. Period.

And what kind of "lifestyle changes" in the past 30 years could possibly lead to autism.

You don't find the incredible correlation between the explosion of vaccines and autism the least bit troubling?

More general statements no data. You want to make an bold statement, you'd better prove it!

We will wait as you handwave some more. Just like Fauci up on the podium, am I right ;)

Also, I don’t know where and when you were growing up, but people with disabilities are included in mainstream society much more than they used to be. Just because you didn’t see kids with autism doesn’t mean they didn’t exist.

The Unkle wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Or lifestyle changes. Or better diagnoses. Or lots of other things. Sounds like you understand that jumping at the first "correlation" you find is dumb. So why do you do it?

It ain't that better diagnosis BS, that's for sure.

We did not have autistic kids when I was a kid. Period.

And what kind of "lifestyle changes" in the past 30 years could possibly lead to autism.

You don't find the incredible correlation between the explosion of vaccines and autism the least bit troubling?

Actually the diagnosis existed before the second world war. It was debated for a long time, though. When you were a kid there were autisic kids, even before the first diagnoses. Periode.

No, the best of studies diapprove the "incredible correlation". No such correlation. Boys four times girls. It just boils down to another conspiracy theory.

Harambe wrote:

[quote]The Unkle wrote:

It ain't that better diagnosis BS, that's for sure.

We did not have autistic kids when I was a kid. Period.

And what kind of "lifestyle changes" in the past 30 years could possibly lead to autism.

You don't find the incredible correlation between the explosion of vaccines and autism the least bit troubling?

More general statements no data.

Really. My life experience is a general statement? My question to you about the severe correlation is a general statement? My questions as to what lifestyle changes could possibly produce autism is a general statement?

You just are afraid to deal with the questions.

KaareV wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Or lifestyle changes. Or better diagnoses. Or lots of other things. Sounds like you understand that jumping at the first "correlation" you find is dumb. So why do you do it?

It ain't that better diagnosis BS, that's for sure.

We did not have autistic kids when I was a kid. Period.

And what kind of "lifestyle changes" in the past 30 years could possibly lead to autism.

You don't find the incredible correlation between the explosion of vaccines and autism the least bit troubling?

Actually the diagnosis existed before the second world war. It was debated for a long time, though. When you were a kid there were autisic kids, even before the first diagnoses.

No there weren't. I was there.

In 1968 there were 4 or 5 kids per 100,000 with autism.

Now there are 1 in 68.

So, as I did not know 100,000 kids growing up, it is no surprise there was no autism in my life.

Now I know many kids with it. And it's not a matter of changing standards of diagnosis. These kids have serious issues.

And to claim no correlation between the massive increase in vaccinations and cases of autism is absurd.

Both have grown exponentially over the same period of time.

You do know what correlation means, don't you?

Autism Statistics by the Numbers in the USA

• 1980: 1 to 2 per 10,000 children

• 1990: 1 in 500

• 2000: 1 in 250

• 2004: 1 in 166

• 2009: 1 in 110

And now, 1 in 68.

Vaccinating kids in the USA:

Late 1960s | Recommended Vaccines

Smallpox

Diphtheria*

Tetanus*

Pertussis*

Polio (OPV)

Measles

Mumps

Rubella

Added 1970s:

Diphtheria*

Tetanus*

Pertussis*

Polio (OPV)

Measles**

Mumps**

Rubella**

Added since:

Hib

Hepatitis B

Varicella

Hepatitis A

Pneumococcal

Influenza

Rotavirus.

No correlation

Yeah right.

You read a study that tells you that and believe it instead of looking at the facts?

Dude. This is really, really awful thinking. Tons of things have changed since 1960s in our environment.

Somehow, with ZERO supporting rationale, it's the change in vaccines that is causing it. Why that factor and not one of the hundreds or thousands of other changes?

Why not a cocktail of factors all offering slight contributions?

If you're gonna jump to vaccines is the sole cause and none of the others can be....why?

Most kids diagnosed with autism do not have serious cases. Diagnostic expansion is the source of the autism increase, and social pressure to conform with limited physical activity. Kids who are truly autistic in the serious sense are very rare. I have students all the time who are diagnosed as autistic but those with serious problems like you read about in the newspaper occasionally almost never reach this level.

The WHO says, "Based on epidemiological studies conducted over the past 50 years, the prevalence of ASD appears to be increasing globally. There are many possible explanations for this apparent increase, including improved awareness, expansion of diagnostic criteria, better diagnostic tools and improved reporting."

A study in the NIH:

"Following an expansion of diagnostic criteria for autism that occurred in the late 1980s and 1990s, autism prevalence studies around the world showed dramatic increases (Fombonne, 2009; Rice, 2013; Rutter, 2005)."

"It is likely that the rise in autism prevalence during the latter decades of the 20th century, based on epidemiologic studies, can be attributed largely to the expansion of diagnostic criteria and the adoption of the concept of autism as a spectrum of impairments (ASD) that occurred during this period (Fombonne, 2009; King and Bearman, 2009; Rice, 2013; Wing and Potter, 2002). It is also possible that other factors, including improvements in screening and services for children with ASD and increases in specific risk factors for ASD (such as increases in the proportion of births to older parents) have also contributed to increases in the prevalence of ASD over time (Durkin et al., 2008; Grether et al., 2009; Rice, 2013; Rice et al., 2013; Schieve et al., 2011)."

"Taylor et al. (1999) conducted a self-controlled case-series study in children with autistic disorders residing in the North East Thames region of the United Kingdom. ... A total of 498 children who were born from 1979 through 1998 and had an autism diagnosis before 16 years of age were included in the analysis. ... The authors concluded that MMR vaccination is not associated with autism.

Farrington et al. (2001) conducted a reanalysis of the study by Taylor et al. (1999). The two risk periods were changed to autism diagnosis within 59 months and any time after vaccination, and compared to a reference period that consisted of time from birth through 191 months of age or August 1998, whichever occurred first. ... The authors concluded that there is no association between MMR or measles-containing vaccines and autism diagnosis any time after vaccination.

Madsen et al. (2002)2 conducted a retrospective cohort study in children born in Denmark from January 1991 through December 1998. ... The authors concluded that MMR vaccination is not associated with an increased risk of autistic disorder or other autistic-spectrum disorders.

Smeeth et al. (2004) conducted a case-control study in children (born between 1973 and 1999) enrolled in the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) from June 1987 through December 2001. The study included 991 cases with a recorded diagnosis of autism and 303 cases with other pervasive developmental disorder diagnosis. ... The authors concluded that MMR vaccination is not associated with an increased risk of autism.

Mrozek-Budzyn et al. (2010) conducted a case-control study in children identified in the general practitioner records in the Malopolska Province of Poland. The study included 96 cases and 192 matched controls. The cases were diagnosed with childhood or atypical autism by a child psychiatrist according to the ICD-10 criteria. ... The authors concluded that administration of MMR or single-antigen measles vaccine is not associated with an increased risk of autism in children.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK332896/

Reports of 3,500 people dying of COVID yesterday alone and you say that we should pay no mind.

Dude.

Just proving there is a correlation between vaccines and autism, which the poster I was replying to denied.

What about the link between older parents and autism? Perhaps environmental toxins and older eggs and the sperm of older men are more to blame than vaccines.

Perhaps I should clarify, when studies are done in a manner that limits the effects of external variables, no correlation is found

As I mentioned above, 1 million other things have changed over that time, and therefore also have this time correlation affect with autism diagnoses. Literally all of them make more sense as a cause of autism. Why do you not focus on those that would make more sense from a scientific perspective. We could probably come up with 1000. Alternatively you could volunteer to work on a study of autism and vaccines, or you could help pay for one. What you should not do, he suggest given the current data that there is any reason to think that vaccines one of the top 1000 or morereasons that might contribute to autism.

Would you like us to compile a list of more likely contributors? We already have chicken McNuggets, Reaganomics, and compact discs.

The Unkle wrote:

Really. My life experience is a general statement? My question to you about the severe correlation is a general statement? My questions as to what lifestyle changes could possibly produce autism is a general statement?

You just are afraid to deal with the questions.

Yes, in fact anecdotal evidence from "life experience" is probably the worst kind of evidence. Anecdotes are rife with confirmation bias and memories are routinely wrong.

The Unkle wrote:

Dude.

Just proving there is a correlation between vaccines and autism, which the poster I was replying to denied.

A little pedantic, since the implied point is obvious (Harambe and others aren't debating the technicalities or correlation or not)...but fair enough.

But to you're statement that:

You don't find the correlation between vaccines and autism the least bit troubling

No. I don't. Not with that verbiage.

Interesting? Sure. I don't dismiss it, it sits there in the back of my mind as a factor to consider, but no causal link has been found with autism/vaccine even though people have tried, so that relegates it a little further back.

I think modern environments, older parents, and especially dietary changes + increase in exposure to various compounds that affect biology far more pressing and interesting possibilities to explore.

The Unkle wrote:

We did not have autistic kids when I was a kid. Period.

Hahahahaha. Well, we’ve reached that a point in your argument, huh?

No one bought your garbage links so now you have to make absurd statements like the one above.

Here’s something that does hold some weight:

1980 - first time autism was listed in the DSM

1987 - DSM expanded criteria for autism diagnosis

1991 - US dept of Ed allows autism diagnosis to qualify for special education services (encouraging parents to look into diagnoses)

1994 - even larger expansion of criteria for autism diagnosis (includes aspergers now)

2006 - American Academy of Pediatrics recommended screening all children for autism during routine pediatrician visits at 18 and 24 months of age

2013 - yet again, another expansion of criteria for autism diagnosis

Then there’s the Child Find Act which requires school districts to have a process for identifying and evaluating children who may need special education and related services.

So, I can either believe your rants and your garbage links, or I can look at readily available information on the increase in autism awareness and diagnostics, as well as peer-reviewed research.

You’re a fraud without data or credibility. You lose.

zxczxcv wrote:

Reports of 3,500 people dying of COVID yesterday alone and you say that we should pay no mind.

If you didn't mean to quote me and that was accidental...disregard.

If you intended to quote me....

What the fvck?

I said nothing remotely close to the sort. My ENTIRE rationale behind my objection to Stoppit's comments was, painfully obviously, that we need to pay attention to BOTH the net harms caused by coronavirus mitigation measures AND TO THE HARM CAUSED BY THE PANDEMIC

In that light it's literally absurd you draw such a conclusion, The only way is outright dishonesty OR if you're so pedantically binary in thinking that my pointing out the nonsensical aspect of what Stoppit has said triggered some sort of process like:

Stoppit is clearly a proponent of COVID safety -> Parsec disagrees with Stoppit -> Parsec think we should pay no mind to COVID.

Needless to say, there are far, far more possibilities. Your assumption that I think we should "pay no mind to COVID" is on NO way my personal thoughts on the COVID pandemic.

Good question. I've been a germaphobe most of my life (once I knew better) Frankly, I don't want to go back to the 2019 way of life any more than I want to go back to the 2000 way of life, etc etc. People are/were way too focused on hugs, shaking hands, whispering in ears, lining up far too close to each other and being careless with food prep or making sure those at work were actually well. The American way of life was never prepared for a pandemic because seats are way too close, people speak way too closely and there is a lot of unnecessary touching. American culture in the 90s-00s went through a rave phase where people were doing God knows what with God knows whom and communally sharing God knows what with God knows whom. This led to increases of exposed young adults bringing whatever disease and filth they were into that weekend to their workplace or classroom or lecture hall. It was not uncommon to have some careless, sniffling reckless youngster taking orders or even preparing food, and management was okay with this.... And customers didn't care. Now, customers want shelves and products and facilities wiped down and disinfected. They want more distance and are less willing to jam an aisle for the products they want. Patrons, managers, and workers are more cognizant of the health of the workers and are more likely to speak out if someone is sick. People are being more selective of those whom they trust to not get them sick and evaluate circumstances such as where either has been to decide if meeting each other should be possible. School kids are having to wash hands more frequently and are practicing safer behaviors that will continue an awareness of closeness vs safety. More people are learning about respiratory science, and also the science of being near the bacteria of someone's sweat such that if there is a row of 6 treadmills and only 2 people want them, they don't have to take the one immediately adjacent to someone else. No. I don't want to go back to 2019. We've learned too many valuable lessons that we can pick from to move forward safely. Anything less is backward, especially once the pandemic ends. There's your answer.

coach wrote:

What about the link between older parents and autism? Perhaps environmental toxins and older eggs and the sperm of older men are more to blame than vaccines.

Maybe.

I don't think older men being dads is anything new.

Maybe older women. Maybe not.

Environmental toxins is surely worth considering