Official Galen Rupp/Suguru Osako Half Marathon Discussion Thread

hull n oats wrote:

Scott Fauble showing some insecurity/lack of class/little whiny b1tch reaction

https://twitter.com/scottfaubs/status/1322339419081175040?s=21

This pretty much encapsulates how Galen is the greatest American distance runner of AT LEAST the last 30 years and Scott Fauble is an also-ran that will be forgotten as soon as he retires.

As soon as I find out somebody has a Twitter account my respect for them drops 10% and if I find our they do any "clapback" type posts it drops another 90.

Lagat is like 24-5 lifetime against Rupp. GOAT my ass.

the ruppture wrote:

Rupp is legend. His 10 mile time en route is the american record. He is now 3rd all time behind Gebresselasie. Ahead of Kamworor, Wanjiru, and Cheptegei

Come again?

I was referring more to the 10K-Marathon distance. Sorry for the confusion. Either way, there is no US GOAT conversation that you can bring Scott Fauble up in and not get laughed out of the room.

He should stick to talking about burritos and maybe hope to hope to crack the top 15 at the marathon trials in 2024 LOL

Can you catch me up to speed and show me which rule makes the shoes illegal?

I’ve been searching, but can’t seem to find it.

I just got back into running. Why are some athletes able to break the written rules? Which one is it, so I can make sure it doesn’t happen at my school.

confirmed that Rupp is not a genuine world class athlete.

hull n oats wrote:

Scott Fauble showing some insecurity/lack of class/little whiny b1tch reaction

https://twitter.com/scottfaubs/status/1322339419081175040?s=21

I don't mind this. He's punching up and I'm sure Galen can take it.

The time is fine. Running around 30 seconds off your PR in a TT is a solid result. If he'd have been in Gdynia I think he would have broke 60

pupil3142 wrote:

confirmed that Rupp is not a genuine world class athlete.

Two Olympic medals not enough to be world class?

Not Greg Meyer wrote:

Sub Max wrote:

Guys, its say Galen Rupp took the 10 Mile AR today? Is that correct?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhKQaSjMyGg

USATF seems to think so.

https://www.usatf.org/news/2020/rupp-clocks-u-s-10-mile-record-in-route-to-half-ma#:~:text=Friday%20marked%20the%20first%20time,Greg%20Meyer%20at%20Washington%2C%20D.C

.

David Monti posted on Twitter that Hall went through in 42:21 (15k), 45:33 (10 miles), and 57:06 (20k), en route to 59:43. Not sure if, for some reason, Houston couldn't verify those marks but they're faster than Rupp's 42:47/45:54/57:17. What's interesting is how fast Hall closed from 20k to the finish in Houston. Is there some downhill in that final stretch? Rupp was clearly closing well as he got within 11 seconds of Hall at 20k but then finished 40 seconds back. Although, typing that out doesn't look right to me. Did he just jog it in or something or were the splits off?

Anyways, seems like a fine result for Rupp. 2:00 faster than the rest of our best this past week. The back & forth on here is actually super rational. Rupp is by far the best we have but every performance is clouded b/c of NOP/Salazar. Guess it'll be interesting to see if he ever does a fast half and to see if he enters Valencia which seems to be swirling around.

The main take on all of this should be how bad we do as a sport. We don't advertise a race like this that results in a fast time. The best athlete doesn't join in with the actual race that went down mid-week. Then we all fight about the result because of doping.

runderun wrote:

hull n oats wrote:

Scott Fauble showing some insecurity/lack of class/little whiny b1tch reaction

https://twitter.com/scottfaubs/status/1322339419081175040?s=21

I don't mind this. He's punching up and I'm sure Galen can take it.

The time is fine. Running around 30 seconds off your PR in a TT is a solid result. If he'd have been in Gdynia I think he would have broke 60

This is way too rational for LetsRun. You either need to trash Fauble for only being a 1:02/2:09 guy OR praise Rupp, while ignoring any shady things Salazar/NOP has engaged in. There is no in between.

FWIW I agree with this completely. He made a joke & is punching up career-wise. He's in the mindset of a lot of other elites that Rupp is a cheater. The joke definitely had intent. I'm good with it. Rupp has to answer for his associations.

Also some folks are being too hard on Fauble. He's already had a really solid career & is a ton more personable than Rupp. A lot of HSers & college kids would consider him a favorite before someone like Rupp.

Again, the thing I we're missing in this whole discussion is how in the world do we find out about a sub-1:01 half marathon time trial less than 24 hours before the event? To Fauble's/NAZ's credit, you always know when/where they're racing & if there's a way to watch.

People need to give Hall some dang credit, he was a beast for a stretch.

I agree with you to a certain extent. However, who cares how "personable" Rupp or Fauble are? They're runners, not comedians. I could not care less about the personal lives of any celebrities. I have my own friends in real life, I don't need to know what is going on with Scott Fauble or Galen Rupp at all-times.

Plus, I think some of the criticisms of Galen being boring are a little overstated. Most of the times I've listened to him speak he seems like a pretty thoughtful guy, just a bit reserved and unwilling to poison his mind with social media.

Oh no I’m banned!

The comments from Collin and Rojo have some issues that seems to come up a lot in the analysis of the effect of the shoes (and their relation to other performance augmentations). The first few comments I have are in relation to the wind calculation and economy extrapolation, and while some of the issues come up with the shoe analysis, if you don't want to read that, just skip to the bottom about the shoes.

This is not correct. We actually have fewer studies on the effect of drag and horizontal force manipulation in running than we do the shoes (which woefully limited itself).

There are a lot of assumptions that went into that final number. Yes, wind speed profiles have a logarithmic profile that are valid over large distances through the atmosphere, but the effects of near-surface structures and the environment throw those off quite a bit, not to say anything about any effects of surrounding runners and the pack. Here's a good paper for wind conversions:

Similarly, jumping from a windspeed estimation (which itself might have enormous variation) to a "second per mile" estimate is quite spurious. Not only would the effect itself be highly individualized, but the actual magnitude of the average effect is not well characterized.

Also note that horizontal forces applied during running are not linear - the benefit of a greater and greater tailwind taper off and approach an asymptote, whereas the cost of a greater and greater headwind exponentially increase.

A good paper on that:

All of that is simply to demonstrate that our simplifying assumptions to try and attach a number to some ecologically complex benefit - a tailwind at Boston - is really tricky, and might not be very informative when we try to compare it to other means of performance benefits.

I'm not sure that's true either - to say that the benefit one gets in his or her running economy does not change (from any source - wind, shoes, etc.) over the course of a marathon is not necessarily a safe assumption. We've seen evidence that running economy decreases during a marathon, so one could certainly posit that something that improves running economy may have a greater offset from the decrement if it's working to preserve some of the things that decay, like muscle function or strength (though that is also likely dependent on the mechanism - maybe wind is independent, but the shoes have a nonstationary benefit over 26.2 miles, or visa versa)

Also, even if it is distance-independent, it's not going to be speed-independent. Benefits to running economy decay at faster and faster speeds, so the tailwind to the person running 3:30 (3.3 m/s) is a substantial difference (much higher) to the person running 2:03 (5.7 m/s).

This is important if we are informing (or adjusting/checking) our performance-improvement estimates off of correlative data. What we observe in a bulk of runners around 3 hours, or even in runners we know around 2:30 or 2:20, does not necessarily extrapolate to the elites.

All of that being said, maybe 4:22 is a good estimate - maybe the wind was actually higher on the ground, but the effect and benefit of it is lower than what was assumed - but again, if it's gut-checked against a correlative measure (what we actually think Mutai was capable of or what we know other slower runners did run), it carries some fallacy that might be dangerous to compare. Maybe 2:10 is a better estimate though, or 1:00 or 3:15, or 5:20. It's probably not helpful to move the conversation forward to try and nail down a specific number there on something as complex as wind during a 26 mile race, and that applies to a lot of mechanisms.

All of that wasn't to knock down your analysis, but rather to highlight the trouble we get ourselves into if we try and attach concrete values to a multi-step extrapolation process. It can tie us to the presumed validity of the result, when there's error and variance in each step of the estimation that multiplies.

This is an issue that comes up again and again in the shoe debate - what previous runners in the recent past ran - and gets back to the issue and dangers of trying to compare performance effects.

When assessing the shoes against historical precedent at an elite level, there is an enormous confounding variable: change in PED policing

At the same time the shoes became widely available (2018), the first WADA-accredited blood lab was opened in East Africa (Kenya) and Kenya started massively ramping up its antidumping efforts under pressure from WA and WADA. So while we may have seen an enormous gain from the shoes at the top level, we also very likely saw a drop due to more stringent testing across the board. Just like there was a slight stagnation in the early 2010s, after the initial introduction of Biological Passport, this got many more athletes that routinely populate the top 20 and top 50 lists onto the passport and served to be even more stringent on the guys already at the top (the ones running 2:03 and 2:04 before the shoes). I'm certainly not going to say top guys are all totally clean now, but I suspect any benefits they're getting from any cheating is quite a bit smaller than it was 10 or 20 years ago.

So if we see a bunch of top-level guys winning races a 1:00-1:30 faster than they had been in 2012-2016, it's not a valid assumption that the benefit to an elite level 2:05-2:06 marathoner is 1:00-1:30. It might be 3:00-3:30, but they haven't been pharmaceutically augmented by 2:00. Again, that gets into some tricky business of mixing benefit estimations, but the point is that the trends we see at the top today are likely a combination of shoes (faster) and better PED policing (slower).

With respect to Kipchoge and Kamworor's WR in relation to the many of the names on that list, I think that might actually be very illustrative of that point. That list you provided has many names that highly suspect in my book. I don't think it's a stretch to say Kipchoge's best performance was his 2:04:00 in 2015, and that if he was still capable of that in Nike Streaks, or even declined slightly, say to 2:04:30, that the befit of the Next% is 2:30-3:00 to him. I think that's entirely logical.

I think one of the strange benefits of the shoes on both the roads and the track is that they're allowing us to re-write the record books in an age when we are at least a little bit more confident in PED policing measures. It's not perfect, but it's likely much less flagrant or of a smaller magnitude than in the past. It's a shame for a lot of national records and marks that were presumed clean (that were much slower than world records, haha), but I guess there are pros and cons for everything.

To put it all together, we have to be careful when our extrapolations are based on historical comparisons and correlations. Whether it's with runners at different speeds and abilities, or in runners of a different era.

Now, all of the being said - if the original intent was rooted in assessing Rupp's performance relative to Hall, I'd have to say we have pretty compelling evidence that Hall > Rupp at the marathon and half-marathon. Rupp is the best in the US right now, but the US is absolutely not world-class right now, so that means very little. Hall performed as well or better than Rupp over the HM and M distances in normal racing flats.

Following this logic, every Nike athlete in road races are wearing the CHEATERS' shoes, so all Nike athletes in road races are cheating now?

In this 1 v 1, both men were wearing the shoes you refer to as cheaters' shoes. To me, that appears to be a fair fight. This staff can write as many articles as they want, but there will never truly be an answer as to what difference it makes exactly for each athlete. Clearly it will always be a case by case situation, and it seems a bit silly to compare the shoes to a wind aided performance. Everyone will benefit equally from wind at their back, but not everyone is built the same to where their biomechanics will make them as responsive to these alleged "cheater" shoes as someone else.

While on the topic of Boston, seriously guys, the fact that you believed everything to be fact since people said it occurred about Salazar in the book you reviewed on the front page is unprofessional at best. I hope lawsuits fly against the people that have falsified stories about some of the Salazar antics. Obviously some are likely true, but I am extremely doubtful about all of them, and people are playing with fire affiliating their emotions with some either embellished or fabricated stories to get retribution.

Verrior wrote:

hull n oats wrote:

Scott Fauble showing some insecurity/lack of class/little whiny b1tch reaction

https://twitter.com/scottfaubs/status/1322339419081175040?s=21

Scott is right. Galen is still a gimmicky guy always looking to do something to gain an advantage. It is a bit odd.

scott fauble might actually have low test

david rudisha's alleged dildo wrote:

Verrior wrote:

Scott is right. Galen is still a gimmicky guy always looking to do something to gain an advantage. It is a bit odd.

scott fauble might actually have low test

AHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Rupp hasn't raced since winning the Olympic Marathon Trials in February.

But today, the Eugene Marathon tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/EugeneMarathon/status/1321551856389091328

Gotta figure that the American record is in play. In fact, if Rupp has been building his fall training around this and targeting this race specifically, I would expect it to fall. As a reminder, the AR is 59:43 by Ryan Hall from 2007.

lemme guess you hate Galen Rupp? CONGRATULATIONS!!!!