Rotation to treasuries is real. Early this year there was no option, now there is.
Also China is a big deal. There is vast Chinese ownership of US equities (and of course treasuries).
Also huge gains so far this year probide headroom.
Also opposition to Trump is now galvanized and midterms are very close. While this may not be “the big one”, it could be decent, another similar drop maybe.
Agip in my world there is Chinese ownership of US equities, but it is all personal—but there is a heck of a lot of it
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
this is the 23rd drawdown of 5% of more of the SP500 since the end of the 2008-9 bear market.
Am I supposed to think this one is the killer?
Truth is, they all feel like the end of the world.
We were at all time highs three weeks ago.
Traders gonna trade
Bad investors gonna panic out.
Can’t say if it is or isn’t, but the 23rd over a nine year period is telling. More relevant is most investors whether it is today or a year from now will ride the market down. It will be historic.
23 over 9 years is about 2.5/year. There’s nothing dramatic about that.
Your second sentence is a “duh” moment for anyone who understands elementary statistics. For that matter, so is your last sentence since, by definition, everything that happens is historic.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stocks and bonds down, so cash is the superior asset class today.
So, should I invest in mattresses as a whole? or just the underside? piggy banks?
triple leverage wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stocks and bonds down, so cash is the superior asset class today.
So, should I invest in mattresses as a whole? or just the underside? piggy banks?
Steinhoff International (STHHF) parent company of Mattress Firm. The stock is trading at $0.16 down 99.9% from the 52 week high, a true buy on the dip or bankruptcy opportunity. I think a piggy bank would be a much better bet.
I had a toe in the market recently.
Soled about $200k of the $250k I had in equities just before noon.
I expected this to trigger a rebound (as we all think our actions magically affect the outside world).....but I am feeling pretty good about it right now.
Dow dropped another 400 plus today after I sold,
agip wrote:
this is the 23rd drawdown of 5% of more of the SP500 since the end of the 2008-9 bear market.
Am I supposed to think this one is the killer?
Truth is, they all feel like the end of the world.
We were at all time highs three weeks ago.
Traders gonna trade
Bad investors gonna panic out.
Actually smart investors panic early rather than later.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Markets In Turmoil!
The markets are going to blow up! Too much debt in this country! We're a debt-driven economy! With all those years of pathetically zero interest rates people went on spending sprees financing everything under the sun from upgrading to new homes to new vehicles & big ticket items they didn't need.
Now the rooster comes home - the Fed is hiking interest rates faster than you can say "Federal Reserve" in an attempt to avert hyperinflation. With rising interest rates, people ain't spending no more...less demand for big ticket items = big trouble for the economy!
You just can't keep growing an economy on debt spending! People are up to their eyeballs in debt! The government is up to their eyeballs in debt! U.S. debt is at an all time high!
Debt bubble is going to burst!
The end of glory days is near.
Depression days are coming. ?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/08/29/the-u-s-is-experiencing-a-dangerous-corporate-debt-bubble/#6d7bdd07600ehttps://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/21/consumer-debt-is-set-to-reach-4-trillion-by-the-end-of-2018.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/13/total-us-household-debt-soars-to-record-above-13-trillion.htmlI dumped wrote:
I had a toe in the market recently.
Soled about $200k of the $250k I had in equities just before noon.
I expected this to trigger a rebound (as we all think our actions magically affect the outside world).....but I am feeling pretty good about it right now.
Dow dropped another 400 plus today after I sold,
Hopefully you were selling ETFs and individual stocks, if you sold mutual funds, or funds in a 401k you sold down 800 points.
My God wrote:
purple martin wrote:
It's been the total topic of discussion from the guy who started posting on here in March of 2015.
You must be a newcomer.
Wow.
So many things wrong in one short post. How do you do it?
1. I did not say: "I see something wrong. You bring up a sentence that was not part of this particular discussion. Care to try again? That was A$$ Masterson.
2. The sentence in question has not "...been the total topic of discussion from the guy who started posting on here in March of 2015." That bastardization of a sentence was posted by Mellon yesterday at 12:55. I first went after it on at 2:31 yesterday and have been posting on this thread on 8/27/13 ("You must be a newcomer").
You sound angry bro!
Smart investors wrote:
agip wrote:
this is the 23rd drawdown of 5% of more of the SP500 since the end of the 2008-9 bear market.
Am I supposed to think this one is the killer?
Truth is, they all feel like the end of the world.
We were at all time highs three weeks ago.
Traders gonna trade
Bad investors gonna panic out.
Actually smart investors panic early rather than later.
Reminds me of the Ernest Hemingway dialogue from The Sun Also Rises:
“How did you go bankrupt?”
“Two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.”
Smart investors wrote:
agip wrote:
this is the 23rd drawdown of 5% of more of the SP500 since the end of the 2008-9 bear market.
Am I supposed to think this one is the killer?
Truth is, they all feel like the end of the world.
We were at all time highs three weeks ago.
Traders gonna trade
Bad investors gonna panic out.
Actually smart investors panic early rather than later.
More on the topic:
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1050133955859677184Companies buy this many shares?
Maserati wrote:
Companies buy this many shares?
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-10/stock-prices-drop-buyback-boogeyman-may-have-struck-again
Stocks bought with debt. That cost is rising.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I dumped wrote:
I had a toe in the market recently.
Soled about $200k of the $250k I had in equities just before noon.
I expected this to trigger a rebound (as we all think our actions magically affect the outside world).....but I am feeling pretty good about it right now.
Dow dropped another 400 plus today after I sold,
Hopefully you were selling ETFs and individual stocks, if you sold mutual funds, or funds in a 401k you sold down 800 points.
800 below where it was bought? How do you know so much about his mutual funds?
Heebab wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Hopefully you were selling ETFs and individual stocks, if you sold mutual funds, or funds in a 401k you sold down 800 points.
800 below where it was bought? How do you know so much about his mutual funds?
He meant that the Dow was down 800 points by the time the market closed, which would be the price by default of a mutual fund sale entered during the day (you get the closing price). Point being, he hopes the guy actually got an actuation price in the morning when the prices were higher than at the close. BUt if it was mutual funds in a 401k, he got the end of the day, which was the low for the day.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Financial Advisor wrote:
5 year performance:
HSGFX -42%
TNA +179%
Who holds funds for only one week?
The whole point is where we are going not where we have been. Good FAs understand that.
I think I understand Igy’s investment philosophy now. At the top of the bull market, his clients have less to worry about.
Investor A, Igy’s client, started with 1 million 9 years ago and now has only 500k to lose.
Investor B, who has been invested, started with 1 million, and now has 3 million to lose.
Of course Investor B is in a more precarious position! Probably hard to sleep at night.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I dumped wrote:
I had a toe in the market recently.
Soled about $200k of the $250k I had in equities just before noon.
I expected this to trigger a rebound (as we all think our actions magically affect the outside world).....but I am feeling pretty good about it right now.
Dow dropped another 400 plus today after I sold,
Hopefully you were selling ETFs and individual stocks, if you sold mutual funds, or funds in a 401k you sold down 800 points.
Huh???
purple martin wrote:
My God wrote:
Wow.
So many things wrong in one short post. How do you do it?
1. I did not say: "I see something wrong. You bring up a sentence that was not part of this particular discussion. Care to try again? That was A$$ Masterson.
2. The sentence in question has not "...been the total topic of discussion from the guy who started posting on here in March of 2015." That bastardization of a sentence was posted by Mellon yesterday at 12:55. I first went after it on at 2:31 yesterday and have been posting on this thread on 8/27/13 ("You must be a newcomer").
You sound angry bro!
You sound stupid cuz.
seattle prattle wrote:
Heebab wrote:
800 below where it was bought? How do you know so much about his mutual funds?
He meant that the Dow was down 800 points by the time the market closed, which would be the price by default of a mutual fund sale entered during the day (you get the closing price). Point being, he hopes the guy actually got an actuation price in the morning when the prices were higher than at the close. BUt if it was mutual funds in a 401k, he got the end of the day, which was the low for the day.
Dunno about that but I got the price of the ETFs at the time I sold them just before noon.