538 has Abbott 9% ahead of Beto.
Do you think they’re wrong about that?
The abortion issue could make this tight.
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November cant come fast enough. Thanks for the last two years guys!
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If Lauren Boebert can't make it work with Jayson, she could always try this guy.
HAHAHAHAHA! Get it? The thing with the pants. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!
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Ex L wrote:
538 has Abbott 9% ahead of Beto.
Do you think they’re wrong about that?Nate Silver is a pundit, not a pollster. Trying to combine polls into an overall prediction is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the science works, apples and oranges as I explained before. Beneath the reported sampling error are a lot of different assumptions, particularly about turnout.
Abbot +9 is hardly out on a limb given Abbot's incumbency and the 2020 presidential result.20 -
One thing about the abortion issue, strong pro life and pro choice voters, where it's a make or break issue, are a pretty small minority of the electorate and they both already reliably turn out for their parties. I doubt it will make much difference.
Most of the country seems put off by the extremist fanatics, one side demanding legal-until-birth, the other demanding save-the-zygotes.20 -
Bad Wigins wrote:
Ex L wrote:
538 has Abbott 9% ahead of Beto.
Do you think they’re wrong about that?Nate Silver is a pundit, not a pollster. Trying to combine polls into an overall prediction is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the science works, apples and oranges as I explained before. Beneath the reported sampling error are a lot of different assumptions, particularly about turnout.
Abbot +9 is hardly out on a limb given Abbot's incumbency and the 2020 presidential result.
note that 538 acknowledges that many people don't want its 'secret sauce' analysis and just want poll compilations. On all its predictions you can choose 'polls only.'
You can see immediately that the 'secret sauce' is massively pro-sedition party right now. Which is ironic because no doubt all the Big Liars think Nate is a lib with his thumb on the scale.
TX Guv:
Polls only: Abbot 86% likely to win
Full Model: Abbot 95% likely to win
Senate:
Polls only: Dems 80% likely to win
Full Model: Dems 63% likely to win
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Bad Wigins wrote:
One thing about the abortion issue, strong pro life and pro choice voters, where it's a make or break issue, are a pretty small minority of the electorate and they both already reliably turn out for their parties. I doubt it will make much difference.
Most of the country seems put off by the extremist fanatics, one side demanding legal-until-birth, the other demanding save-the-zygotes.
I think you are not aware of what's going on in the world of new voter registration - it is massively more women than men. Ending Roe might be the single best thing the Ds have going for them this cycle.
tens of millions of women are really mad and will vote. This is new. Not in the models because it hasn't happened before.
And if you are right that people are against the extremists, who want 12 year old rape victims to carry their babies....that's the Republican Party in many/most places. Will only help the Dems.
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No wonder the Sedition Party instinctively feels closer to the Russians than the Ukrainians. Twenty years ago the GOP would have been celebrating the Ukrainian freedom fighters. Now the Rs just aren't sure which side they are on. They sense that the Ukrainians are the 'libs' in this fight and the Russians are the 'conservatives.'
This graph below sound familiar, 'conservatives?' the obsession with gay life? Sound anything like right wing American media to you? Yes, yes it does.
You might want to reconsider your politics if your soul leans toward Moscow rather than Kiev.
NYT:
On state media, Russia is a pillar of traditional values, bound to prevail over the moral swamp that is the West. There is a daily fixation with L.G.B.T.Q. matters. To watch Russian television is to get the impression that the gay community runs the decadent Western world. For all their professed shock and horror, Russian news outlets avidly air footage with lurid depictions of gay life.
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Ex L wrote:
538 has Abbott 9% ahead of Beto.
Do you think they’re wrong about that?The abortion issue could make this tight.
Gonna go out on a limb here and guess that Texas votes Republican
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Democrats hate Christians.
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Ghost of Disco Gary wrote:
Joe Biden is a truly vile person. He headed the Judiciary Committee that slandered the reputations, actually trashed, the reputations with lies of Robert Bork and Clarence Thomas. No "uncle" Joe. He is a truly reprehensible person and any Lib who supports him needs to look in the mirror and ask if you don't regret supporting this very bad person.
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Chuck Todd said Sunday on “Meet the Press” that a new NBC News poll finds “Americans are angry” with a graphic showing 74% of those polled say the country is on the wrong track.
Todd said, “We are less than three months before the Midterms and our brand new NBC News poll paints a pretty bleak picture. Americans are angry. They are disappointed, and they are worried about the future of this country.”
Midterms cannot come fast enough and that Red Earthquake is going to be massive.
Lets go Brandon!
#FJB
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Bad Wigins wrote:
One thing about the abortion issue, strong pro life and pro choice voters, where it's a make or break issue, are a pretty small minority of the electorate and they both already reliably turn out for their parties. I doubt it will make much difference.
Well, shucks, here I am agreeing with something from BW! I'm in touch with many people (most of them Dems or Dem-leaning--this is NYC, after all) who seem to think abortion will be THE issue in November. Maybe they're right, but I don't think so...for the reasons BW gave.
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agip wrote:
Bad Wigins wrote:
One thing about the abortion issue, strong pro life and pro choice voters, where it's a make or break issue, are a pretty small minority of the electorate and they both already reliably turn out for their parties. I doubt it will make much difference.
Most of the country seems put off by the extremist fanatics, one side demanding legal-until-birth, the other demanding save-the-zygotes.
I think you are not aware of what's going on in the world of new voter registration - it is massively more women than men. Ending Roe might be the single best thing the Ds have going for them this cycle.
tens of millions of women are really mad and will vote. This is new. Not in the models because it hasn't happened before.
And if you are right that people are against the extremists, who want 12 year old rape victims to carry their babies....that's the Republican Party in many/most places. Will only help the Dems.
Are you denying that, as the OP said, many folks ALSO find (most) third trimester abortions really bad? The correct answer is, of course, "Yes, lots do."
It would be interesting to pose the following to your average R-leaning but reasonably anti-Trumpism voter: Chances you'd vote for a D who wants only 1st trimester abortions and exceptions? Chances you'd vote for a D who says, "NO restrictions." I think that I know the answer, and it ain't good for Ds.
But will I take less restrictions on abortion over Trumpism? Yes. I can only hope that a lot of moderates agree with this.
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One more win for the good guys.
A state senator in Colorado is resigning from the Republican Party and becoming a Democrat, citing the party's complicity in the Jan. 6 insurrection and 2020 election denial as the reason.
"I cannot continue to be a part of a political party that is okay with a violent attempt to overturn a free and fair election and continues to peddle claims that the 2020 election was stolen," Sen. Kevin Priola said in a statement.
He also cited his party's lack of action on climate change, saying his GOP colleagues "consistently and proudly seek to impede progress ... and I can't, in good conscience, be silent about that."03 -
This is elder abuse
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We’re done here. The GOP will
end democracy in America and it will happen very soon. And the ‘conservatives’ will cheer its demise.
Read this and weep.
feel free to bump!
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