Down goes the Dow

J. Hardy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sales agreements between firms.

Oh. Commissions.

Understood. Of course you work for free.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

J. Hardy wrote:

Oh. Commissions.

Understood. Of course you work for free.

Wait. Didn’t you once say that your services were fee based and that you didn’t charge sales commissions?

Contrarian indicator wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Actually it could be true and still I would be having fun. TNA is likely on the cusp of a multi-year decline and HSGFX on a multi-year upswing. It is all a question of “is this the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end.” Either way it will not matter because most will lose money from here on TNA and make money on HSGFX. My opinion of course.

I guess I’ll buy some TNA.

Buying opportunity or sucker’s trap?

Wait what? wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Understood. Of course you work for free.

Wait. Didn’t you once say that your services were fee based and that you didn’t charge sales commissions?

Yes.

Greetings all, nice to see Igy in a fighting spirit!

Hey Igy what kind of return have you gotten on your CD ladder over the most recent 12-month period?

I just have straight MM deposits in the US, just waiting, hoping they won’t invoke the now-legal MM bail-in plan before I use it.

We are now further down the road that we have taken. Some good moves by T, some not-so-good moves, and the usual gov’t bs about unemployment numbers. Buybacks soaring, China in turbulence and trying to contain capital flight, oil ratcheting up even with rising production, IMF wanking as usual, bonds finally making their presence felt, US leading the way on rising rates, pension funds still in huge trouble, everyman costs like food, fuel, utilities, medical insurance, prop taxes etc continuing to rise much faster than wages, ROW playing catch-up to the USA because of the dominant position of the US consumer economy in the world.

Hurricane will distract from reality, and will be used to justify gloomy numbers, even after fudging.

I have said and I maintain that the ONLY things that will bring everything crashing down are a huge infrastructural event like trouble with the grid or pandemic, or political will. While I have believed that the first is possible because of the fragile complexity of modern systems, I realize that at the moment it is in few countries’ benefit to crash the US. Everybody, globally, is all-in at the moment. They are STILL pouring money into the US.

Politics might be the undoing, but it is to few people’s advantage to crash things. Organization and confidence in the group will be critical going forward, so I am watching for political coherence and stability within the parties.

I am glad that I don’t need to be in the markets at this time, but managing other things is still a pain. Time marches on, before you know it 5 years are behind you.

Maserati,

Yes, getting my digs in on a down day. The Bear is just the intellectual mirror image of the Bull. The critical mass of negativity is the unsustainability of global debt and excessive U.S. equity valuations.

On the CD ladder tracking 2% over past 12 months, but the return was half that a year ago and continues to rise. Not in the office at the moment but I would assume 3 month T-Bills and CDs in the 2.25% range with one year 2.60%.

Igy

The two week old slide continues today and seems to be picking up steam.

What a great system, eh? Pay less than inflation on safe investments forcing us to gamble in the stock market in order to retire.

It continues wrote:

The two week old slide continues today and seems to be picking up steam.

What a great system, eh? Pay less than inflation on safe investments forcing us to gamble in the stock market in order to retire.

You can thank the Fed for that.

Yes, only what is a safe investment these days? High-grade corporate paper? Sovereign bonds? Not from where I stand. Even 3-month CD rollover makes me squirm a bit.

Thanks Igy that matches what I know.

T/FED relationship is critical, with QT and always the possibility of future QE. Hard to get a sense of that relationship, from what I hear it is cordial at best.

I am tempted to do a short-term BTFD tonight with a 401k, depending on how things finish today. Lol big trader, right??

Maserati,

Well you no longer hear “BTFD, the Fed has your back” or “there is no alternative to stocks.” Curious how the narrative changes, just like “synchronized global growth.” All the Bullish narratives evaporating like a puddle of water in summertime.

Igy

Knead 2 no wrote:

Third grade wrote:

That was a sentence that would get you an F in third grade.

What does that tell us about your investment advice?

Could you point out exactly what is improper about the sentence? Thanks.

Here is the "sentence" (to be generous) under discussion.

"So with that being said, does that make an aggressive stock investor since 2011 that pulled out of the market in Sept. 2018 a foolish investor?"

Take a shot at it. See anything wrong?

Yes but IMO there still remains room to churn, especially before midterms...speaking of which, one month of chaos could ruin T’s narrative.

Which is a false narrative, btw. Unemployment numbers are bs, look at U6 and its criteria instead; and budget and trade deficits are sky-high. Regarding trade deficits, his policies will of course take some time to be reflected in the numbers, and will be driven in part by Yuan value, and domestic rates.

Overall the system is susceptible to political management. Fascinating that midterms are coming.

And yes I am still hearing btfd, but it is diminishing.

Third Grade wrote:

Knead 2 no wrote:

Could you point out exactly what is improper about the sentence? Thanks.

Here is the "sentence" (to be generous) under discussion.

"So with that being said, does that make an aggressive stock investor since 2011 that pulled out of the market in Sept. 2018 a foolish investor?"

Take a shot at it. See anything wrong?

I see something wrong. You bring up a sentence that was not part of this particular discussion. Care to try again?

Economy is not strong—that is only a lie to justify the increase in rates that is necessary to make pension funds look better—although it is too little and too late for many funds.

T is right in a way, real business fundamentals don’t support the fed’s rate hikes. While inflation is very high and higher than they report, it is price inflation and does not by itself justify rate increases. Reporting U1 rather than U6 and what it means is just for political points, and T knows it.

There is no huge conflict, yet—and there is now the hurricane to provide the next justificatory excuse...then it will be an early onset of weather, combined with Chinese and Russian meddling.

But the longer the fudge goes, the more the temp will rise between T and the Fed.

Also, based on his pre-election comments, T understands that the GDP number is fudged, but will now still bask in its political glow.

Reported Unemployment, inflation, and GDP all wrong and do not support rate increases, and it is rate increases driving the equity drops, led by companies that rely the most on debt, and on leveraged investors.

Vol is up, which is very interesting

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

It continues wrote:

The two week old slide continues today and seems to be picking up steam.

What a great system, eh? Pay less than inflation on safe investments forcing us to gamble in the stock market in order to retire.

You can thank the Fed for that.

The QEs were highly successful. Thank you, Fed.