Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No that is an incorrect assumption.

Ok, so prove it...tell us exactly when the crash will occur. I won’t hold my breath.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You also own Russell 3x Up down 5% since I warned you, add that to your preferred. All going lower including your Apple. Guaranteed down hard, but not necessarily next week or next month, but next year. You will see soon enough. Sorry for the bad news.

You warned me several quarters ago and since then, both are up sharply.

Any effort to take credit for some market foresight thus far is, well, at the very best, a little pre-mature. And frankly, that's yet to be seen.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You also own Russell 3x Up down 5% since I warned you, add that to your preferred. All going lower including your Apple. Guaranteed down hard, but not necessarily next week or next month, but next year. You will see soon enough. Sorry for the bad news.

You warned me several quarters ago and since then, both are up sharply.

Any effort to take credit for some market foresight thus far is, well, at the very best, a little pre-mature. And frankly, that's yet to be seen.

Igy is the very definition of a contrarian indicator.

Shanghai Composite YTD down -14.69%, outside of the US most markets and asset classes down. Notable exception being Japan +5.25% where the Central Bank continues to buy equities. In the US the 10 Year Treasury closed Friday above 3.2% while the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates while reducing the size of the balance sheet. Those are twin tightening factors, one raising the cost of money and the other reducing liquidity. While tax policy has been favorable for corporations increasing labor costs and rising interest expense is affecting margins. The critical argument is momentum versus valuation. Valuation influences markets over longer time horizons. Momentum is driven by investors risk preferences. Since February there has been a divergence in price action where securities are no longer a one direction trade illustrating a step away from risk. It is impossible to say over the short run if this trend will persist. My view is that if the market rises from here it only increases the downside risk. Furthermore, investors have become Pavlovian in their “buy on the dip” response and are likely to misjudge market risk.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You also own Russell 3x Up down 5% since I warned you, add that to your preferred. All going lower including your Apple. Guaranteed down hard, but not necessarily next week or next month, but next year. You will see soon enough. Sorry for the bad news.

You warned me several quarters ago and since then, both are up sharply.

Any effort to take credit for some market foresight thus far is, well, at the very best, a little pre-mature. And frankly, that's yet to be seen.

I don’t think that assessment is correct.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

You warned me several quarters ago and since then, both are up sharply.

Any effort to take credit for some market foresight thus far is, well, at the very best, a little pre-mature. And frankly, that's yet to be seen.

I don’t think that assessment is correct.

Yes it is.

No it isn't.

Can you say more than you will lose money .,.. soon!

We all know the painful truth that you have been saying that for years.

Igy, tell me how to run like the paces you've accomplished in your life. That would be amazing. And i truly admire that in you. You should be proud and rightly so. I mean that honestly.

Your investment advice as of late has me less impressed.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You also own Russell 3x Up down 5% since I warned you, add that to your preferred. All going lower including your Apple. Guaranteed down hard, but not necessarily next week or next month, but next year. You will see soon enough. Sorry for the bad news.

You warned me several quarters ago and since then, both are up sharply.

Any effort to take credit for some market foresight thus far is, well, at the very best, a little pre-mature. And frankly, that's yet to be seen.

TNA discussion was 8/16/2018, all the preferred ETFs are negative YTD.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

You warned me several quarters ago and since then, both are up sharply.

Any effort to take credit for some market foresight thus far is, well, at the very best, a little pre-mature. And frankly, that's yet to be seen.

TNA discussion was 8/16/2018, all the preferred ETFs are negative YTD.

Cherry picking as usual.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I don’t think that assessment is correct.

Yes it is.

No it isn't.

Can you say more than you will lose money .,.. soon!

We all know the painful truth that you have been saying that for years.

Igy, tell me how to run like the paces you've accomplished in your life. That would be amazing. And i truly admire that in you. You should be proud and rightly so. I mean that honestly.

Your investment advice as of late has me less impressed.

Seattle,

Here is the analogy, long months of base building can make you tired and slow. But like preservation of capital, the miles are money in the bank.

Enjoy the discussion and don’t mean offense with the jabs,

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

You warned me several quarters ago and since then, both are up sharply.

Any effort to take credit for some market foresight thus far is, well, at the very best, a little pre-mature. And frankly, that's yet to be seen.

I don’t think that assessment is correct.

You would be wrong...again.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

Yes it is.

No it isn't.

Can you say more than you will lose money .,.. soon!

We all know the painful truth that you have been saying that for years.

Igy, tell me how to run like the paces you've accomplished in your life. That would be amazing. And i truly admire that in you. You should be proud and rightly so. I mean that honestly.

Your investment advice as of late has me less impressed.

Seattle,

Here is the analogy, long months of base building can make you tired and slow. But like preservation of capital, the miles are money in the bank.

Enjoy the discussion and don’t mean offense with the jabs,

Igy

Igy, fair enough, but it seems that we have a down week or two and you're "I told you so", and we have week after week of upward appreciation and you say' and what was your annualized return from _____________ (pick the worst stretch of the market you can think of).

Hey, have you tried the new season of fresh hop IPAs? Headed out soon to imbibe a bit and enjoy those fantastic hops from the farm districts of our bountiful area.

Seattle,

Understood.

Enjoy yourself. Daughter and son-in-law are in Seattle this weekend. They have friends there and this is an annual trip. We are baby sitting their insecure Chihuahua.

Igy

"China to Pump $174 Billion Into Its Economy" - headline in this morning's news. Eager to see how this affects the markets tomorrow. Surely good for emerging markets, if not more.

Adding to the drama Chinese markets are reopening after being closed for Golden Week.

Drama?

Huh?? wrote:

Drama?

Yes, drama:

Only market timers like yourself would consider that to be drama. Fortunately most investors are more level headed and not inclined to hyperbole.

Big Dan wrote:

Only market timers like yourself would consider that to be drama. Fortunately most investors are more level headed and not inclined to hyperbole.

Most investors do a very poor job of analyzing anything, have gone whole hog into passive ETFs, will ride the next downturn just like they did the last.