Down goes the Dow

Gruntz wrote:

I am not a critical thinker. I merely echo Igy criticism of others without subjecting them to careful consideration. The term “angry bird” comes to mind.

One thing for sure. He will never cry uncle.

You need to go back and read #15.

Here’s something that is not #15:

http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=BLV&region=USA&culture=en_US

This has likely been mentioned here, but I'm gonna ask anyway...

When/If the bottom drops out of the public pension's, what will be the result in the stock markets?

My folks have recently retired from the private sector and have some good money invested through their advisor. But, the looming Bond market crisis is their big question. Any help is appreciated.

Risk in the bond market is generally credit quality (the ability of the debtor to make bond payments) and duration ( the sensitivity of the instument to intetest rate changes). Compare bond ETFs the Vanguard Long Term Bond (BLV) and Vanguard Short Term Bond (BSV). One can see the former down over -5% in price while the later which is less sensitive to rates down -0.12%. Low credit quality bonds (high yield) tend to be more influenced by the equity markets and the business cycle. There is far more risk to your parent’s portfolio from a very inflated stock market.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

I am not a critical thinker. I merely echo Igy criticism of others without subjecting them to careful consideration. The term “angry bird” comes to mind.

Gruntz sure had you pegged, Igy. You totally make him look like a genius with that reply. Ha ha.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Risk in the bond market is generally credit quality (the ability of the debtor to make bond payments) and duration ( the sensitivity of the instument to intetest rate changes). Compare bond ETFs the Vanguard Long Term Bond (BLV) and Vanguard Short Term Bond (BSV). One can see the former down over -5% in price while the later which is less sensitive to rates down -0.12%. Low credit quality bonds (high yield) tend to be more influenced by the equity markets and the business cycle. There is far more risk to your parent’s portfolio from a very inflated stock market.

Thanks, GoI. Any more detail/advice is appreciated... but thank you again for this.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

There is far more risk to your parent’s portfolio from a very inflated stock market.

And far more reward also. The younger you are, the more exposure you should have to stocks.

Any crystal ball's out there? wrote:

This has likely been mentioned here, but I'm gonna ask anyway...

When/If the bottom drops out of the public pension's, what will be the result in the stock markets?

My folks have recently retired from the private sector and have some good money invested through their advisor. But, the looming Bond market crisis is their big question. Any help is appreciated.

The biggest risk your parents have is their advisor taking their money. Look into the fee structure.

Rising interest rates are good long term for bonds. Like most things in markets, a "bond market crisis" gets more clicks than "bonds dipping for a bit, will recover and then some in a few years"

Any crystal ball's out there? wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Risk in the bond market is generally credit quality (the ability of the debtor to make bond payments) and duration ( the sensitivity of the instument to intetest rate changes). Compare bond ETFs the Vanguard Long Term Bond (BLV) and Vanguard Short Term Bond (BSV). One can see the former down over -5% in price while the later which is less sensitive to rates down -0.12%. Low credit quality bonds (high yield) tend to be more influenced by the equity markets and the business cycle. There is far more risk to your parent’s portfolio from a very inflated stock market.

Thanks, GoI. Any more detail/advice is appreciated... but thank you again for this.

Google “sequence of return risk.” This will give you some guidance on portfolio risk as one enters the retirement distribution phase. This would be another question your parents should pose to their advisor.

another's opinion wrote:

Any crystal ball's out there? wrote:

This has likely been mentioned here, but I'm gonna ask anyway...

When/If the bottom drops out of the public pension's, what will be the result in the stock markets?

My folks have recently retired from the private sector and have some good money invested through their advisor. But, the looming Bond market crisis is their big question. Any help is appreciated.

The biggest risk your parents have is their advisor taking their money. Look into the fee structure.

Rising interest rates are good long term for bonds. Like most things in markets, a "bond market crisis" gets more clicks than "bonds dipping for a bit, will recover and then some in a few years"

Are you saying that there is not a problem with underfunded public pensions? Is this a click-getter?

I would say whoever runs that site is a crackpot from browsing around.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/agriculture/solar-minimum-biggest-decline-maybe-ever/

$10,000/month retired firefighters wrote:

another's opinion wrote:

The biggest risk your parents have is their advisor taking their money. Look into the fee structure.

Rising interest rates are good long term for bonds. Like most things in markets, a "bond market crisis" gets more clicks than "bonds dipping for a bit, will recover and then some in a few years"

Are you saying that there is not a problem with underfunded public pensions? Is this a click-getter?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/beware-of-the-real-debt-crisis-on-the-horizon-not-the-bs-on-tv/

that seems to be a problem for people relying on pensions and something different than a bond crisis

Preferred returns well below even 3 month CD returns-

http://etfdb.com/type/preferred-stock/all/#issuer-power-rankings__return&sort_name=issuer_power_ranking_text&sort_order=asc&page=1

Any crystal ball's out there? wrote:

This has likely been mentioned here, but I'm gonna ask anyway...

When/If the bottom drops out of the public pension's, what will be the result in the stock markets?

My folks have recently retired from the private sector and have some good money invested through their advisor. But, the looming Bond market crisis is their big question. Any help is appreciated.

Your best bet is to read the replies from “Ghost if Igloi”, then do the opposite of what he re ommends. A lot of us have made significant coin using that strategy.

Gruntz wrote:

Any crystal ball's out there? wrote:

This has likely been mentioned here, but I'm gonna ask anyway...

When/If the bottom drops out of the public pension's, what will be the result in the stock markets?

My folks have recently retired from the private sector and have some good money invested through their advisor. But, the looming Bond market crisis is their big question. Any help is appreciated.

Your best bet is to read the replies from “Ghost if Igloi”, then do the opposite of what he re ommends. A lot of us have made significant coin using that strategy.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S8rCy173y7Y

As usual, Igy would rather talk about himself.

Gruntz wrote:

Any crystal ball's out there? wrote:

This has likely been mentioned here, but I'm gonna ask anyway...

When/If the bottom drops out of the public pension's, what will be the result in the stock markets?

My folks have recently retired from the private sector and have some good money invested through their advisor. But, the looming Bond market crisis is their big question. Any help is appreciated.

Your best bet is to read the replies from “Ghost if Igloi”, then do the opposite of what he re ommends. A lot of us have made significant coin using that strategy.

Also keep in mind, this advice is coming from a guy who is in the running for the top TROLL on the LR message board.