Down goes the Dow

Seattle,

The last time that valuations were stretched to this level was March 2000. The following 10 year S&P 500 return was annualized at -2.221% with reinvested dividends -0.434. If those returns are inflation adjusted (CPI) they are -4.539% and -2.793% respectively. Now if we extend through August 2018 those returns improve to 3.735% annualized and 5.701% reinvested dividends. The inflation adjusted amounts fall to 1.567% and 3.493% respectively. Even using the non-inflation adjusted figures clearly bond like returns.

The questions for investors should be “will the market experience since the election be more indicative of the next ten years” or “will the next ten years market experience mirror 2000-2010.” The end of central bank QE, demographic trends, and enormous amounts of debt at all levels of society argues it will be the later. Just as the trends of the last couple of years supported non-fundamental investing, the unwind of excesses will be to the detriment to those who believe it is an easy game.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Gruntz wrote:

And if it doesn’t happen, which is likely given Hussman’s track record, all will be well. That is except for those who followed your advice.

And this has already happened: “By the end of the 2000-2002 market decline, the total return of the S&P 500 had fallen behind risk-free Treasury bills all the way back to May 1996. By the end of the 2007-2009 market decline, the total return of the S&P 500 had fallen behind risk-free Treasury bills all the way back to June 1995.“ So if it happens again you lose big time way more than anyone who listened to me.

I’ve already won.

Fools win nothing.

I think a lot of investing is forward looking over a period as short as three quarters out. I think that's what on the minds of most instititutional investors, at least the ones that make recommendations regularly on the shows. They are looking at how many interest rates hikes this year and next, and revenue projections of companies and GDP growth. Beyond that, they figure they probably will be re-balancing between now and then based on teh changing landscape.

That's my bet as to the catalyst for much of the trading going on now.

Seattle,

Have you noticed that those analyst always say the same thing even right up to October 2007. A Wall Street analyst that is anything but Bullish has a short career. It does not pay to have an indepedent view. Most are not worth listening to.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

Have you noticed that those analyst always say the same thing even right up to October 2007. A Wall Street analyst that is anything but Bullish has a short career. It does not pay to have an indepedent view. Most are not worth listening to.

Igy

Speaking of people who always say the same thing...

Look who’s talking, the man who contributes zero. Now that is nothing. The real “nowhere man.”

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Fools win nothing.

You would know that better than anyone else here.

Yuck, yuck. Pick another response from your laundry list of junior high retorts.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Yuck, yuck. Pick another response from your laundry list of junior high retorts.

Oh, the irony!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

Have you noticed that those analyst always say the same thing even right up to October 2007. A Wall Street analyst that is anything but Bullish has a short career. It does not pay to have an indepedent view. Most are not worth listening to.

Igy

Don't think for a minute a Financial Advisor like this guy is unusual. They will never admit they've been steering you in the wrong direction. There is too much money at stack. For them!

purple martin wrote:

Don't think for a minute a Financial Advisor like this guy is unusual. They will never admit they've been steering you in the wrong direction. There is too much money at stack. For them!

It’s all a con. Notice how he bemoans the actions of Wall Street, while at the same time he works for them. Have no doubt that he is doing the bidding of his Wall Street master.

Give me a break. An article from February? Just tell me what it says, maybe i can hold my attention that long, but certainly not enough to read some crap from half a year ago...

Gruntz wrote:

purple martin wrote:

Don't think for a minute a Financial Advisor like this guy is unusual. They will never admit they've been steering you in the wrong direction. There is too much money at stack. For them!

It’s all a con. Notice how he bemoans the actions of Wall Street, while at the same time he works for them. Have no doubt that he is doing the bidding of his Wall Street master.

Funny since you constantly mouth the Wall Street narrative. Just remember there is a bull market somewhere.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Body weight wrote:

I asked what you would recommend. I cannot answer that for you.

I gave you my thoughtful answer. That is not enough for you, of course there never will be. That is your game.

You gave a thoughtful reply, but it was not an answer to the question I asked.

There is no shame in admitting that you don’t have an answer to a question. There’s no need to dance around it.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Look who’s talking, the man who contributes zero. Now that is nothing. The real “nowhere man.”

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Funny since you constantly mouth the Wall Street narrative. Just remember there is a bull market somewhere.

Dude, you need 2 make up your mind.

?‍♂️

The Dude Man wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Look who’s talking, the man who contributes zero. Now that is nothing. The real “nowhere man.”

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Funny since you constantly mouth the Wall Street narrative. Just remember there is a bull market somewhere.

Dude, you need 2 make up your mind.

?‍♂️

Dude, just turn on the CNBC, same stuff. Like I said no contribution.

Like wow, cowabunga Dude!

Never watch it, but that’s beside the point. You’re the one who’s mixed up.