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7 years ago 08/23/2018 9:09pm EDT

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
I think you missed the point. I never predicted three years and five months ago the market would drop 60%. I said the next big move was down not up. In the subsequent years the market has move from being overvalued by 45-50% to 55-65%. You and the other posters can’t for some reason synthesize the difference. It seems perfectly logical, supported by market history, and is not an extreme point of view by any means. In fact your views run counter to market history. You may want to look at the junk debt in your leveraged small cap fund I posted earlier today. Those are facts, not the direction of the market day to day, which seems to support your other posters bravado.
Igy

Not getting caught up in whether the market was overvalued by 50% on average or 60 % on average back then (when you made the assertion that cash was king), you are missing my point that there is cause to celebrate when an investor has remained invested over the last 3 1/2 years or more and has gains on the books with which to take profits if they haven't already.

7 years ago 08/23/2018 10:04pm EDT

re: seattle prattle

seattle prattle wrote:
CELEBRATE! wrote:
Bump!
I think the point is, the current level of the market is not sustainable. Nor was it several years ago, so besides the short term 14% drop (which was just somewhat shy of a much proclaimed 60% bloodbath) and was followed by a rapid rebound and further rise (substantial rise, to be fair), it is even less sustainable now. So, those who would celebrate their misguided good fortune, are celebrating nothing more than their own blind ignorance - no, blatant greed - because the market will return to historic metrics based on valuations from years ago and those holding said securities will either witness their unrealized gains disappear and suffer further losses or will somehow manage to dupe others into buying their grossly overvalued shares because we must simply face the fact that those overvalued shares are a liability and not a cause for celebration.
On top of that, sprinkle a spattering of guilt because not all sections or our demographic have participated equally in these illusionary gains and you might as well save your congratulations and start handing out dunce caps instead.
Did i get that right?

Well played, sir.

7 years ago 08/24/2018 9:19am EDT

re: seattle prattle

seattle prattle wrote:
Not getting caught up in whether the market was overvalued by 50% on average or 60 % on average back then (when you made the assertion that cash was king), you are missing my point that there is cause to celebrate when an investor has remained invested over the last 3 1/2 years or more and has gains on the books with which to take profits if they haven't already.

Your hindsight is excellent.

The question is what to do now and in the future.

7 years ago 08/24/2018 10:14am EDT

re: Fab

Fab wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Not getting caught up in whether the market was overvalued by 50% on average or 60 % on average back then (when you made the assertion that cash was king), you are missing my point that there is cause to celebrate when an investor has remained invested over the last 3 1/2 years or more and has gains on the books with which to take profits if they haven't already.
Your hindsight is excellent.
The question is what to do now and in the future.

That’s easy. Just listen to K5/Igy and then do the opposite.

7 years ago 08/24/2018 10:53am EDT

re: Fab

Fab wrote:
Your hindsight is excellent.
The question is what to do now and in the future.

I thought history mattered.

7 years ago 08/24/2018 11:06am EDT

re: Easy Peasy

Easy Peasy wrote:
Fab wrote:
Your hindsight is excellent.
The question is what to do now and in the future.
That’s easy. Just listen to K5/Igy and then do the opposite.

Keep buying the market “this time is different.”

Igy

7 years ago 08/24/2018 12:18pm EDT

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Keep buying the market “this time is different.”
Igy

Mellon, you were wrong! You said he would never declare that.

7 years ago 08/24/2018 2:12pm EDT

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Easy Peasy wrote:
That’s easy. Just listen to K5/Igy and then do the opposite.
Keep buying the market “this time is different.”
Igy

There’s your SELL signal, folks.

7 years ago 08/24/2018 3:06pm EDT

re: Easy Peasy

Easy Peasy wrote:
Keep buying the market “this time is different.”
Igy

There’s your SELL signal, folks.[/quote]

And, if you've been all in for the past 3 1/2 years and do that today, you've done very well.

7 years ago 08/24/2018 4:25pm EDT

re: mellon

mellon wrote:
Easy Peasy wrote:
There’s your SELL signal, folks.
And, if you've been all in for the past 3 1/2 years and do that today, you've done very well.

You gotta love how Igy’s “recommendation” came right at the high point of the day. This guy is money!

7 years ago 08/24/2018 5:22pm EDT

re: purple martin

purple martin wrote:
Fab wrote:
Your hindsight is excellent.
The question is what to do now and in the future.
I thought history mattered.

In the market? How so? How does the experience of the past four years help you decide how to invest today?

7 years ago 08/24/2018 5:23pm EDT

re: Easy Peasy

Easy Peasy wrote:
Fab wrote:
Your hindsight is excellent.
The question is what to do now and in the future.
That’s easy. Just listen to K5/Igy and then do the opposite.

You got nothing?

7 years ago 08/24/2018 5:42pm EDT

re: Fab

Fab wrote:
Easy Peasy wrote:
That’s easy. Just listen to K5/Igy and then do the opposite.
You got nothing?

No, I got profits! (Thanks, Igy!)

7 years ago 08/24/2018 5:51pm EDT

re: Easy Peasy

Sure glad you did the right thing. The trick worked.

7 years ago 08/24/2018 6:00pm EDT

re: Easy Peasy

Easy Peasy wrote:
Fab wrote:
You got nothing?
No, I got profits! (Thanks, Igy!)

Really? How much have you made the past 4 years?

7 years ago 08/24/2018 6:08pm EDT

re: Fab

Fab wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Not getting caught up in whether the market was overvalued by 50% on average or 60 % on average back then (when you made the assertion that cash was king), you are missing my point that there is cause to celebrate when an investor has remained invested over the last 3 1/2 years or more and has gains on the books with which to take profits if they haven't already.
Your hindsight is excellent.
The question is what to do now and in the future.

Fair question.

It seems the markets are telling you what they think - they think this is an excellent time to stay invested in that the economy is strong, earnings have been stellar, tarrifs and rate hikes are concerns but not overblown (at least not yet), etc.

As for me, i think it's good to have a little cash on hand so as to be well positioned to buy a dip if one were to occur. I've been reluctant to buy much except for a bit in Feb./March. By in large, i've been staying the course and waiting for better entry points.

I probably should consider doubling down on emerging markets now and maybe some more Netflix, but haven't yet so far even though this may be a good opportunity.

7 years ago 08/24/2018 6:18pm EDT

re: CELEBRATE!

CELEBRATE! wrote:
Happy Longest-Bull-Market-Ever Day!
My congratulations to those of you who took advantage of this historic opportunity, and my condolences to those of you who missed the boat.

Bump!

7 years ago 08/24/2018 6:45pm EDT

re: Ghost of Igloi

Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure glad you did the right thing. The trick worked.

LOL.

7 years ago 08/24/2018 10:21pm EDT

re: Fab

Fab wrote:
I thought history mattered.

In the market? How so? [/quote]

I don't know. You need to ask Igy. He is the history man.

7 years ago 08/25/2018 6:09am EDT

re: Recognizer of brilliance

Recognizer of brilliance wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I think the point is, the current level of the market is not sustainable. Nor was it several years ago, so besides the short term 14% drop (which was just somewhat shy of a much proclaimed 60% bloodbath) and was followed by a rapid rebound and further rise (substantial rise, to be fair), it is even less sustainable now. So, those who would celebrate their misguided good fortune, are celebrating nothing more than their own blind ignorance - no, blatant greed - because the market will return to historic metrics based on valuations from years ago and those holding said securities will either witness their unrealized gains disappear and suffer further losses or will somehow manage to dupe others into buying their grossly overvalued shares because we must simply face the fact that those overvalued shares are a liability and not a cause for celebration.
On top of that, sprinkle a spattering of guilt because not all sections or our demographic have participated equally in these illusionary gains and you might as well save your congratulations and start handing out dunce caps instead.
Did i get that right?
Well played, sir.

You have to admit it Igy ... this is basically your position.

For the record, I was one who thought it was overvalued 3.5 years ago and got out. In hindsight, it was the wrong decision.

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