Of Course wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
...and when the 60% drop comes you will claim to be out....
Of course he will.
Odds are that he has so little liquid assets that all this talk is theoretical for him anyway.
Talking to yourself again.
Of Course wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
...and when the 60% drop comes you will claim to be out....
Of course he will.
Odds are that he has so little liquid assets that all this talk is theoretical for him anyway.
Talking to yourself again.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
I would never recommend anyone to be out of the market.
Igy
Of course you wouldn't now that it is a record high.
Of Course wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
...and when the 60% drop comes you will claim to be out....
Of course he will.
No I won't. I will declare now, if a 60% drop comes soon, I will be in the stock market. Sad, but in.
purple martin wrote:
Of course you wouldn't now that it is a record high.
CLOSE to a record high.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
No, the statement is what it says “cash is a superior asset class when risk returns to the market.” Pretty simple in my view, but twist it anyway you like. My statement has nothing to do with anything other the time it was made, and as I pointed out to you previously the next big move in the market was down less than six months later. By the way, the best asset class at that time was cash.
Igy
There is ALWAYS risk in the market.
Perception of risk was the point.
Did you not think the market was overvalued at the time?
Was the market’s next big move down? Not once but twice?
purple martin wrote:
Of Course wrote:
Of course he will.
Odds are that he has so little liquid assets that all this talk is theoretical for him anyway.
Talking to yourself again.
Wrong again genius.
Cassius King wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
No, the statement is what it says “cash is a superior asset class when risk returns to the market.” Pretty simple in my view, but twist it anyway you like. My statement has nothing to do with anything other the time it was made, and as I pointed out to you previously the next big move in the market was down less than six months later. By the way, the best asset class at that time was cash.
Igy
There is ALWAYS risk in the market.
This exchange encapsulates the entire point. There is always risk in the market any time that one is invested. How much risk and what is the potential reward must be measured by the investor in judging how exposed they want to be to the market fluctuations.
So, to be clear, Igy made a forecast and if we examine it, we see that the market did have something approximating a 13% drop (S&P 500 index) briefly a half year later, and rose from there by 52% to its current level. In hindsight, would you really claim that cash was the superior asset class at that time? Or was that just a little turbulence over the short term for the potential benefit of longer term gains?
It's fine if you don't, but i think the vast majority of investors see that for what it was.
Is this one of those cases of which "truth" one wants to subscribe to?
Seattle,
Now if the market dropped 27% over the next three and a half years to a level where I first posted, would you consider your view wrong?
Igy
of course not. From the point and time that you made the forecast, the market would be flat (were that to come to pass). Not beating inflation is a bummer, but it's not going to bankrupt me in the short term.
Seattle,
How can you say that when your criticism is exactly the same?
Igy
It's worth being out of the market when one is going to loose money.
If the market goes up drastically (in excess of 50%) in just 3.5 years, one has the ability to take profits, even if it does go back down to its original level.
Yes, the market did drop from the point you made the forecast given enough time, but the drop is miniscule compared to the subsequent rise.
And to be clear, we are talking about your ongoing forecast to drop in the neighborhood of 60%. With a forecast like that, would it not be disingenuous to be waving the victory flag based on a very brief 13% dip?
Igy, if you cannot see the silliness of all this, well, construe it any way that suits your goals.
Seattle,
I have no goals other than discussion of truths. What is silly is you don’t care to be judged on the basis of boxed criteria but more than willing to do the same for me. The 60% is derived from metrics that are well known in finance. If you or anyone else chooses to ignore them I find that more indicative of the mania then an indictment of the metric.
Igy
Igy, is Means Reversion (" that asset prices and returns eventually return back to the long-run mean or average of the entire dataset.") a truth or a theory?
Seattle,
Again, you as one individual investor may be able to avoid an unpleasant turn in this cycle, but investors as a class cannot. The 30 year old investor with $10,000 in the market has justification to rely on that data set, however the 65 year old with $500,000 in the market would be foolish to.
Igy
OFF TOPIC:
Whoa! Been all over the air quality index hoping it would drop so i could feel it was not a big mistake to go outside and run when i came across the index in your area. Spokane is a whole category higher. Assuming that's near you, be careful.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The 60% is derived from metrics that are well known in finance. If you or anyone else chooses to ignore them I find that more indicative of the mania then an indictment of the metric.
Igy
What metric?
Big Bertha wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The 60% is derived from metrics that are well known in finance. If you or anyone else chooses to ignore them I find that more indicative of the mania then an indictment of the metric.
Igy
What metric?
Margin adjusted CAPE 10