Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure, you elaborate or shut up. Anything you have said lacks substance.
Where’s that irony guy when you need him?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure, you elaborate or shut up. Anything you have said lacks substance.
Where’s that irony guy when you need him?
Paging Irony Man wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure, you elaborate or shut up. Anything you have said lacks substance.
Where’s that irony guy when you need him?
Aren't you the Irony guy?
purple martin wrote:
You can't point to anything negative as it relates to market performance since you first posted on here without cherry picking.
Helluva a sentence there professor.
Yada wrote:
purple martin wrote:
You can't point to anything negative as it relates to market performance since you first posted on here without cherry picking.
Helluva a sentence there professor.
Oh, the irony!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
I have never sat on the sidelines, nor do I believe QE was just a gift to the banks. It undoubtedly saved my employer and benefited me personally. That is not the point, it is where we are now and the future problems it is causing. Case in point emerging markets. Excess dollar funded liquidity flows to emerging market economies to suspect businesses and when those economies hit a bump in the road the disruption begins. We will see it here with all the junk debt keeping broken businesses models afloat, or companies like Tesla to hoodwink the public for one more day. I think the market will land us somewhere, I suspect at a place you may not be too happy with.
Igy
I think we tend to paint you into a corner as one who has (sat on the sidelines for the last 3 1/2 to 4 years). You did say cash was king. Maybe i'm just dense but tell me again...
Irony Mann wrote:
Yada wrote:
Helluva a sentence there professor.
Oh, the irony!
Oh the absolute display of stupidity.
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
I have never sat on the sidelines, nor do I believe QE was just a gift to the banks. It undoubtedly saved my employer and benefited me personally. That is not the point, it is where we are now and the future problems it is causing. Case in point emerging markets. Excess dollar funded liquidity flows to emerging market economies to suspect businesses and when those economies hit a bump in the road the disruption begins. We will see it here with all the junk debt keeping broken businesses models afloat, or companies like Tesla to hoodwink the public for one more day. I think the market will land us somewhere, I suspect at a place you may not be too happy with.
Igy
I think we tend to paint you into a corner as one who has (sat on the sidelines for the last 3 1/2 to 4 years). You did say cash was king. Maybe i'm just dense but tell me again...
Seattle,
You are free to interpret my views anyway you like. The only changes I would make to my original statement would be Schiller PE 33 and eighteen year S&P is only 5.2%. I would add that international markets are flat to down over that same period. Not that impressive with $21 Trillion in QE.
RE: Up goes the Dow 3/2/2015 7:47PM - in reply to Not really there smalls
Reply Return to Index Report Post
“The risk in the stock market is under appreciated. QE has distorted equity prices and the next big move is down rather than up. The Schiller PE is 27 and valuations are stretched when measured against other valuation models. Remember, the stock market has had two 50% down markets in the past fifteen years. The fifteen year average compounded return on the S&P is only 4.3%, which is inferior to treasuries. Treasuries are overvalued as well. Cash is the superior asset class when risk returns to the market.”
Igy
Mumzy wrote:
Irony Mann wrote:
Oh, the irony!
Oh the absolute display of stupidity.
Yes, that too!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I think we tend to paint you into a corner as one who has (sat on the sidelines for the last 3 1/2 to 4 years). You did say cash was king. Maybe i'm just dense but tell me again...
Seattle,
You are free to interpret my views anyway you like. The only changes I would make to my original statement would be Schiller PE 33 and eighteen year S&P is only 5.2%. I would add that international markets are flat to down over that same period. Not that impressive with $21 Trillion in QE.
RE: Up goes the Dow 3/2/2015 7:47PM - in reply to Not really there smalls
Reply Return to Index Report Post
“The risk in the stock market is under appreciated. QE has distorted equity prices and the next big move is down rather than up. The Schiller PE is 27 and valuations are stretched when measured against other valuation models. Remember, the stock market has had two 50% down markets in the past fifteen years. The fifteen year average compounded return on the S&P is only 4.3%, which is inferior to treasuries. Treasuries are overvalued as well. Cash is the superior asset class when risk returns to the market.”
Igy
Would you call it cherry picking to pick a time frame which most fully supports a particular assertion rather than to pick a more unbiased or appropriate time frame?
The reason I ask pertains to your choice of the high point before the last most significant crash. One might consider it more applicable to figure the appreciation from the date which you made your assertion. And if one did, an investor would be up about 35% and that would pencil out at about 10% per year.
And i am assuming that back then you were, as you said, advocating being in a cash position, which i understand to be 'out of the market'. Maybe i am misunderstanding but you claim that you were not out of the market (i.e.: in cash).
Seattle,
No, the statement is what it says “cash is a superior asset class when risk returns to the market.” Pretty simple in my view, but twist it anyway you like. My statement has nothing to do with anything other the time it was made, and as I pointed out to you previously the next big move in the market was down less than six months later. By the way, the best asset class at that time was cash.
Igy
Sorry, Igy, not trying to twist it any way whatsoever.
a) you say you weren't out of the market but i guess most would think being in cash, which is what you advocated, is exactly that - out of the market.
b) So a temporary drop of about 14% or 15% from which it quickly recovered is not that out of the ordinary periodically, esp. when followed by a rapid rebound, which it was. Honestly, i would be more understanding if at some point you modified your outlook, but based on what many are saying here, you've been saying the same thing throughout.
Just trying to understand.
Hope everything's going well on the running front, Igy.
Seattle,
No problem, I’m not offended. I would never recommend anyone to be in cash and out of the market. Lowering exposure to stocks while having a healthy allocation to bonds would have been a better strategy than 100% stocks over the last twenty years. The reason is poor compounding due to draw down during poor market years.
It is true that my view is that the market remains overvalued. I advocate continuing to adjust your stock exposure based on valuation, risk tolerance and time horizon. Something most would be wise to do and their compounded returns would be better.
Improving health is allowing more strenuous activity. Saturday I raced the Idaho Senior Games 1500 meter in 7:23 (7:55 mile). The effort appears to be better than the 30:39 5k I ran two weeks ago. I was on high dosage prednisone in addition to tumor killing anthracycline chemo. The former causes weigh gain and the later negatively affects your respiration. I will get radiotherapy on the affected tumor sites in the near future. From what I have read the side effects are less onerous.
Do you have anymore marathons planned? Perhaps a return to Boston in better weather!
Igy
OFF TOPIC:
Glad to hear that things are coming along. And your times are quite a bit better. I hear that radiotherapy can make you a bit tired, so don't overdo it.
Prednisone, i was on that for a recent marathon becuase of my asthma and having a cold at the time. I didn't sleep for at least two days, maybe more. It did allow me to breathe, but i definitely did not enjoy it. For one, i am absolutely dependent on caffeine, and i didn't want to touch a drop of caffeine (and didn't), the entire 4 days i was on the prednisone. I guess that is mild, though, compared to the stuff you've been through.
No marathons planned in the near future. I'm struggling through the Achilles tendonitis, and perhaps more significantly, this kicking over to 60 y.o. seems to be catching up with me. It's been challenging these last months. I've had some good runs last week and some signs of recovery are there, but it's not easy.
Of course, this all pails in comparison to the battle you've been through. I'll try to remember that when it comes to muscling through the tough ones.
Take care.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
No, the statement is what it says “cash is a superior asset class when risk returns to the market.” Pretty simple in my view, but twist it anyway you like. My statement has nothing to do with anything other the time it was made, and as I pointed out to you previously the next big move in the market was down less than six months later. By the way, the best asset class at that time was cash.
Igy
“Big move” is relative. The market was up in the ensuing months before taking a dip and the soaring.
The best asset class since that time has undoubtedly been equities.
Of topic 2:
Seattle,
I experienced the same achilles issues around turning 60. Found a work around with flexibility and eccentric heel drops. In regards to Prednisone I was on high dosage 100 mg for five days each of six cycles. That and Doxorubicin (red devil) were the toughest. I actually handled it all very well. I heard the same on the radiotherapy and plan to adjust as necessary. Fortunately I am transitioning to retirement over the next two years so I can rest as needed.
Igy
Poutine wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
No, the statement is what it says “cash is a superior asset class when risk returns to the market.” Pretty simple in my view, but twist it anyway you like. My statement has nothing to do with anything other the time it was made, and as I pointed out to you previously the next big move in the market was down less than six months later. By the way, the best asset class at that time was cash.
Igy
“Big move” is relative. The market was up in the ensuing months before taking a dip and the soaring.
The best asset class since that time has undoubtedly been equities.
No argument there obviously. Personally, since I am retiring soon, right now if I had to choose, I would rather be 100% cash than 100% stocks.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
No problem, I’m not offended. I would never recommend anyone to be in cash and out of the market.
Igy
Seattle,
You should know better than to ask a question like you did. It only invites him to walk back over 3 1/2 years of comments.
If you felt a 60% drop was about to happen soon why would you have anything in the stock market. I wouldn't!
...and when the 60% drop comes you will claim to be out....
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
...and when the 60% drop comes you will claim to be out....
Of course he will.
Odds are that he has so little liquid assets that all this talk is theoretical for him anyway.
Of Course wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
...and when the 60% drop comes you will claim to be out....
Of course he will.
Odds are that he has so little liquid assets that all this talk is theoretical for him anyway.
Oh, but he made a killing on his 5 shares of Facebook.