Down goes the Dow

seattle prattle wrote:

most people don't have much trouble with hindsight, but do you? It (SPLX) has doubled in less than 2 years.

What am i missing?

Excuse me, meant TNA, that has also doubled in less than 2 years. The S&P 3x leveraged is my other one (guess, i'm just lucky)(?).

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Where it will end up when you sell.

Geez, you tryin' to spoil my elixir buzz or something?

Seattle,

I guess you considered yourself unlucky when those funds lost 30% in less than two weeks. That was a very minor market drop.

Best wises though with your luck. Keep in mind you are just as lucky as all the other traders doing exactly the same thing.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

I guess you considered yourself unlucky when those funds lost 30% in less than two weeks. That was a very minor market drop.

Best wises though with your luck. Keep in mind you are just as lucky as all the other traders doing exactly the same thing.

Igy

No, No, No.

First, they gained it back, so i came out of my hole, changed my panties, and got back to posting just like you knew i would.

Second, as far as every other trader doing likewise, i don't think many of them bought when i did. When leveraged etfs first came out i dabbled in the double leveraged for a few weeks, and when that went well, quickly moved up to the triple leveraged. That was quite a few years ago.

Hindsight, my friend, is not so hard to judge.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Willie, well that ain’t the way folks behaving.

I believe that’s a nonsensical statement, but I’ll give you a chance to prove me wrong. Go.

Seattle,

Well best on your trades. I am off to bed for an early morning run and work.

Igy

Night, and glad to hear your doing well.

Late night run for me.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

“Investors, drunk on the elixir of free money, think the good times will roll on forever. And even if they are cautious, a few quarters of underperformance usually invites either capitulation or being fired. With few exceptions, being too early with a bear call is usually a career ending decision. Better to stay in the crowd, remain fully invested and go over the cliff with the herd.”

Albert Edwards, Soc Gen, August 2018

Yes , someone is drunk , and that person is monsieur Edwards . He writes about " the 1997 Asian crisis and the "subsequent" 1994 Mexican crisis ", undoubtedly the result of traders utilizing time machines a la Seattle Prattle .

Hussman Strategic " Growth " Fund is now down 54.27% since 9/17/2008 .

MIA in yesterday's rally : GOOGL, NFLX , FB

Stocks to watch today are NVDA and AMD ; cryptocurrency demand for their chips is down . Morgan Stanley made a bearish call on the whole sector two weeks ago . ( Risk outweighs Reward )

seattle prattle wrote:

most people don't have much trouble with hindsight, but do you? It (SPLX) has doubled in less than 2 years.

What am i missing?

What is the SPLX?

Do you mean the SPX (S+P 500 Index)?

It is currently at 2,840. 69.

It's lowest point in the past 23 months is 2,083.79.

Pretty sure 2,083.69 to 2,840.69 does not support your claim that it has doubled in less than 2 years.

Or maybe there really is an SPLX. Just no evidence of it can be found using search engines?

Maybe you can provide some documentation of your claim?

muy loca,

Both Albert Edwards and John Hussman freely admit to having been wrong and frequently quote that fact. On the other hand there are those for the time being have not been held accountable for their bullish views in the past when clearly wrong. In the last cycle high Ben Bernanke and Jeremy Siegel come to mind. Clearly much of what comes out of the financial today is not prudent and skewed away from a fundamental view by the “what’s working now” mentality. My dollar is bet that Edwards and Hussman are correct where this all ends.

Igy

I’m not sure about Bernanke, but Siegel has been very open about his missed calls. Of course, he hasn’t had as many opportunities as Hussman has.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

My dollar is bet that Edwards and Hussman are correct where this all ends.

Igy

If it ends today, you and them have not been correct. You can't claim, although you would like to, that if this ends 10 years from now you have been correct. But, I'm sure you will.

Husmman’s record is just miserable. A bet on him being right has been a losing one for years.

mellon wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

My dollar is bet that Edwards and Hussman are correct where this all ends.

Igy

If it ends today, you and them have not been correct. You can't claim, although you would like to, that if this ends 10 years from now you have been correct. But, I'm sure you will.

YTD global returns of US dollar 5%, commodities 2%, stocks 1%, cash 1%, high yield -1%, government bonds -2%, investment grade -3%...truly disappointing given global synchronized recovery, multi-decade unemployment lows in US, UK, Japan, Germany, 4% US GDP growth, record global EPS, $1tn US stock buybacks, $1.5tn US tax cuts

Global bonds (as measured by the $51tn ICE BofAML global fixed income index) are annualizing their worst price return (-3.5% local currency) since 1999

11 of 21 commodity markets have experienced "bear" markets (i.e. >20% peak-to-trough decline) and a further 9 "corrections" (i.e. >10% peak-to-trough declines)

12 of 45 MSCI country indices are in "bear" markets and a further 17 equity indices have experienced "corrections"

The MSCI World Index (equal-weighted) is down 14% since its Jan highs ; 1254 ACWI constituents out of a universe of 2273 are in bear markets (i.e. down >20%)

And the S&P500 summer surge had been unambiguously led by defensives (top 5 performing US sectors past 3 months = staples, utilities, REITs, health care, telecoms, in that order)

I hope your response has some meaning to you as it relates to market performance over the past 9 years.

My dollar is bet that it doesn't to anyone else. But, enjoy the read!

Portia wrote:

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2018/08/17/whats-behind-the-failure-of-active-funds?channel=ETF&bt_ee=2uRtnnpkvWGjYc8xrRWms133Bx9VT2rHKf8/8V266ro+0EifvytkIXg0In1cEKdH&bt_ts=1534500267408

iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund Down -6.144%

First Eagle Ovetseas Mutual Fund Down -4.64%

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

Down -11.34%

American Funds New World Mutual Fund Down -5.63%

It will be the same result in domestic index funds and ETFs when the market roll over since there is no risk management. You’ll learn the hard way, through a bad experience.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Portia wrote:

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2018/08/17/whats-behind-the-failure-of-active-funds?channel=ETF&bt_ee=2uRtnnpkvWGjYc8xrRWms133Bx9VT2rHKf8/8V266ro+0EifvytkIXg0In1cEKdH&bt_ts=1534500267408

iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund Down -6.144%

First Eagle Ovetseas Mutual Fund Down -4.64%

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

Down -11.34%

American Funds New World Mutual Fund Down -5.63%

It will be the same result in domestic index funds and ETFs when the market roll over since there is no risk management. You’ll learn the hard way, through a bad experience.

Igy

Are you purposely trying to appear clueless?

What in God's name wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

most people don't have much trouble with hindsight, but do you? It (SPLX) has doubled in less than 2 years.

What am i missing?

What is the SPLX?...

SPXL. Sorry,