We’ll see how it works for you Mellon.
We’ll see how it works for you Mellon.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Fear the Reaper wrote:
Just drop it. The K5/Igy troll is a sad little man who will never say that he was wrong. He lives in a sad little world full of pessimism and hate, and he’s trying to get you to join him there. Don’t play his game.
Huh? And your foolish belief system is based on eating meals served up by those that sell you their wares. A belief system where there is never a time not to buy stocks. Fortunately I am far from your description and certainly not naive like yourself.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1030092478391705606?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Oh, the irony!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
We’ll see how it works for you Mellon.
See how what works out? I don't subscribe to either one of those beliefs.
There you go again telling us what we're going to do.
Why don't you remind us again that "most" investors will sell at the bottom.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Fear the Reaper wrote:
Just drop it. The K5/Igy troll is a sad little man who will never say that he was wrong. He lives in a sad little world full of pessimism and hate, and he’s trying to get you to join him there. Don’t play his game.
Huh? And your foolish belief system is based on eating meals served up by those that sell you their wares. A belief system where there is never a time not to buy stocks. Fortunately I am far from your description and certainly not naive like yourself.
Congratulations! Your reply is 100% incorrect.
mellon wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
We’ll see how it works for you Mellon.
See how what works out? I don't subscribe to either one of those beliefs.
There you go again telling us what we're going to do.
Why don't you remind us again that "most" investors will sell at the bottom.
Ah, go watch the game with the Go Pats! guy and make better use of your time.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mellon wrote:
See how what works out? I don't subscribe to either one of those beliefs.
There you go again telling us what we're going to do.
Why don't you remind us again that "most" investors will sell at the bottom.
Ah, go watch the game with the Go Pats! guy and make better use of your time.
Selling at the bottom would be regrettable. True enough.
But even given a long enough investment period, selling there could still be a handsome profit, depending when one bought.
Regardless, selling prior to (or sitting out of) years of one of the best bull markets in history, has to hurt. I just can't see how you could explain oneself out of that misfortune.
But hey, as they say, we'll see how that works for ya.
Walmart is now at a 34 Trailing PE, vs its historic average of 13. It’s guidance for this year is to earn $14 Billion. That’s almost $3 Billion LESS than 2015, yet the stock price is up 50% since then. Microsoft is at a Trailing PE over 50 vs historic avg of 12. Are you getting it now? This is how you have a never ending bull market. Overvalue everything, by 2 to 4 times the norm , and have a buyer of last resort (Fed and Institutions) always step in when prices fall (ABTD). Just think, in a few short months you might be able to buy WMT trading at a 40 multiple! What a bargain. Buy high, and sell higher is the only game in town.
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ah, go watch the game with the Go Pats! guy and make better use of your time.
Selling at the bottom would be regrettable. True enough.
But even given a long enough investment period, selling there could still be a handsome profit, depending when one bought.
Regardless, selling prior to (or sitting out of) years of one of the best bull markets in history, has to hurt. I just can't see how you could explain oneself out of that misfortune.
But hey, as they say, we'll see how that works for ya.
Seattle,
Yep and I’ll be here to remind you.
Igy
“Investors, drunk on the elixir of free money, think the good times will roll on forever. And even if they are cautious, a few quarters of underperformance usually invites either capitulation or being fired. With few exceptions, being too early with a bear call is usually a career ending decision. Better to stay in the crowd, remain fully invested and go over the cliff with the herd.”
Albert Edwards, Soc Gen, August 2018
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Selling at the bottom would be regrettable. True enough.
But even given a long enough investment period, selling there could still be a handsome profit, depending when one bought.
Regardless, selling prior to (or sitting out of) years of one of the best bull markets in history, has to hurt. I just can't see how you could explain oneself out of that misfortune.
But hey, as they say, we'll see how that works for ya.
Seattle,
Yep and I’ll be here to remind you.
Igy
So, let's just say we have a 60% correction, downturn, apocalypse, aremeggedion, what have you. Would you buy then? If, not, let's say that we throw in a time machine and you could be 20 years younger at the time, would that be your entry point?
Just curious.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“Investors, drunk on the elixir of free money, think the good times will roll on forever. And even if they are cautious, a few quarters of underperformance usually invites either capitulation or being fired. With few exceptions, being too early with a bear call is usually a career ending decision. Better to stay in the crowd, remain fully invested and go over the cliff with the herd.”
Albert Edwards, Soc Gen, August 2018
This appears to be taken from a fund manager handbook. No one's getting fired around here. And grossly exagerated, you think? "Drunk on the elixir of free money?" Give a little credit to those who are taking very seriously how to invest their life's savings.
Seattle,
Albert Edwards is an economist with Society General. I think he describes well the mania infecting the market, driven in part by the herd analysts you follow. Ninety percent who say the same thing.
In regards to buying the market at an attractive valuation, I have. Recently, I built a 5% position in this fund.
https://www.americanbeaconfunds.com/mutual_funds/AHL.aspx
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“Investors, drunk on the elixir of free money, think the good times will roll on forever. And even if they are cautious, a few quarters of underperformance usually invites either capitulation or being fired. With few exceptions, being too early with a bear call is usually a career ending decision. Better to stay in the crowd, remain fully invested and go over the cliff with the herd.”
Albert Edwards, Soc Gen, August 2018
This has got to be one of the dumbest things I’ve read in quite some time. This guy is an idiot. No one thinks the “good times will roll on forever.”
Willie, well that ain’t the way folks behaving.
AHLPX - the fees would scare me away. Over 2%.
I have some leveraged ETFs that i like a lot and their fees of about 1% are enough to have me backing out of them.
Seattle,
Managed Futures have high fees which is the price for playing in that space.
Igy
okay, down ytd. Two year avg. looks okay, though.
... i take that back.
Glad i wasn't on that bus.
Seattle,
I’ll take it over the Russell Small Leveraged:
https://ctaperformance.com/insights/crisis-alpha
Igy
most people don't have much trouble with hindsight, but do you? It (SPLX) has doubled in less than 2 years.
What am i missing?