Sez Hoo wrote:
Trumpians wrote:
DJT? Why not Ivanka, or Melania, or Eric, or Tiffany, or Barron? Trump's are truly retarded.
. . . says the guy who doesn't know how to form the plural of 'Trump'.
Says Who. Not sez hoo.
Sez Hoo wrote:
Trumpians wrote:
DJT? Why not Ivanka, or Melania, or Eric, or Tiffany, or Barron? Trump's are truly retarded.
. . . says the guy who doesn't know how to form the plural of 'Trump'.
Says Who. Not sez hoo.
Trumpkins would like to believe wrote:
The Fokus wrote:
While true, they still are unlikely to vote across party lines.
Not true at all. Republicans do not all walk in lock step. They won't vote at all, and that is Trump's demise.
Not True. The recent tracking polls from Gallup have shown Trump’s job approval among Republicans is in the upper 80% to low 90% range. If that is not lock step, sheep like thinking I don’t know what is. Republicans will retain majorities in both chambers of Congress in 2018 and Trump will be reflected in 2020 if he runs.
Trumpkins would like to believe wrote:
Not true at all. Republicans do not all walk in lock step. They won't vote at all, and that is Trump's demise.
That is a distinct possibility but my guess is that the Republican party will ensure that the message is out there that a non vote is a vote for the Democrat.
I only believe polls when they support my side!!! wrote:
Not True. The recent tracking polls from Gallup have shown Trump’s job approval among Republicans is in the upper 80% to low 90% range. If that is not lock step, sheep like thinking I don’t know what is. Republicans will retain majorities in both chambers of Congress in 2018 and Trump will be reflected in 2020 if he runs.
Which prove the point: NOT ALL REPUBLICANS WALK IN LOCK-STEP. BTQ, approval does not equal guaranteed voting for Trump. Trump's approval by Republicans arched 90.0% exactly ONCE since he regime started. Otherwise, it has averaged mid 80s.
Trump's Approval Rating, Overall - Gallup: 42%
http://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspxAND
http://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspxAND ALSO
http://news.gallup.com/poll/226154/trump-first-year-job-approval-worst-points.aspxThe Fokus wrote:
Trumpkins would like to believe wrote:
Not true at all. Republicans do not all walk in lock step. They won't vote at all, and that is Trump's demise.
That is a distinct possibility but my guess is that the Republican party will ensure that the message is out there that a non vote is a vote for the Democrat.
Which will not work on moderate Republicans. We will not vote for Trump a second time.
says wrote:
Sez Hoo wrote:
. . . says the guy who doesn't know how to form the plural of 'Trump'.
Says Who. Not sez hoo.
Nope. Sorry, but I get to choose my name - not you.
Moron!
Trump's saviour Giuliani wrote:
Avenatti is infinitely more truthful than Trump's legal saviour, Giuliani.
I'm still trying to figure out the Giuliani angle in the first place. Does he have this much capital with Trump's base? He's been a complete boob for quite a while.
Won't work wrote:
Which will not work on moderate Republicans. We will not vote for Trump a second time.
I hope you're correct however I think when push comes to shove that there will be little lost on the Republican side from 2016. In fact I think the 2020 election depends entirely on the Democrat turnout which I'm not sure will be there. Could be a bigger factor in the 2018 mid terms.
Sez Hoo wrote:
says wrote:
Says Who. Not sez hoo.
Nope. Sorry, but I get to MISSPELL my name - not you.
MORAN!
^ Please learn to spell.
The Fokus wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
1) I have said and still believe that Trump will not finish his first term.
We're getting to a point in which simple timing would prevent a situation in which Trump does not finish his first term. The Mueller investigation is not finished. In fact, it appears to have a ways to go base on the fact that many of those closest to the POTUS have yet to be interviewed (to our knowledge). Mueller is unlikely to issue a final report until he has interviewed Trump.
The investigation is likely to come to a standstill for a few months while the mid terms play out. Getting the POTUS to sit for an interview is likely to be tied up in the courts for a period of time. Once a final report is issued, even with potential criminal charges, the actions taken by the final report or even the criminal charges (to me highly unlikely) will take until beyond the 2020 election cycle.
The 2020 election cycle isn't going to be affected nearly as much by the Mueller investigation as some Democrats would like to believe. Those who support Trump don't care about this stuff and, in fact, it probably serves more to galvanize them and rally them to vote more than anything.
Perhaps. I still think he is out before then and likely by resigning.
Here's what happens if I am wrong...Trump has to endure this constant pressure on his for even that much longer, and the word is he is really bothered by it all, so that's a plus for me...he deserves to be bothered by it all.
Flagpole wrote:
The Fokus wrote:
We're getting to a point in which simple timing would prevent a situation in which Trump does not finish his first term. The Mueller investigation is not finished. In fact, it appears to have a ways to go base on the fact that many of those closest to the POTUS have yet to be interviewed (to our knowledge). Mueller is unlikely to issue a final report until he has interviewed Trump.
The investigation is likely to come to a standstill for a few months while the mid terms play out. Getting the POTUS to sit for an interview is likely to be tied up in the courts for a period of time. Once a final report is issued, even with potential criminal charges, the actions taken by the final report or even the criminal charges (to me highly unlikely) will take until beyond the 2020 election cycle.
The 2020 election cycle isn't going to be affected nearly as much by the Mueller investigation as some Democrats would like to believe. Those who support Trump don't care about this stuff and, in fact, it probably serves more to galvanize them and rally them to vote more than anything.
Perhaps. I still think he is out before then and likely by resigning.
Here's what happens if I am wrong...Trump has to endure this constant pressure on his for even that much longer, and the word is he is really bothered by it all, so that's a plus for me...he deserves to be bothered by it all.
Stress kills. Poor diet and lack of exercise accelerate that probability.
The Fokus wrote:
Won't work wrote:
Which will not work on moderate Republicans. We will not vote for Trump a second time.
I hope you're correct however I think when push comes to shove that there will be little lost on the Republican side from 2016. In fact I think the 2020 election depends entirely on the Democrat turnout which I'm not sure will be there. Could be a bigger factor in the 2018 mid terms.
Pretty much every election since Reagan has been about turnout. There’s not much gray area anymore. It’s been “ya” vs “them” for a very long time. Trying to move independents to one side or the other I believe is a lost cause compared to just getting your people to vote. There are lots of staunch Democrats and Republicans who just don’t vote very often or at all.
Look at how close the presidential elections have been over the last 20-25 years.
Winning % of popular vote:
H W Bush: 53%
Clinton: 43%
Clinton: 49%
Bush: 48%
Bush 50%
Obama 53%
Obama 51%
Trump: 46%
Runningart2004 wrote:
The Fokus wrote:
I hope you're correct however I think when push comes to shove that there will be little lost on the Republican side from 2016. In fact I think the 2020 election depends entirely on the Democrat turnout which I'm not sure will be there. Could be a bigger factor in the 2018 mid terms.
Pretty much every election since Reagan has been about turnout. There’s not much gray area anymore. It’s been “ya” vs “them” for a very long time. Trying to move independents to one side or the other I believe is a lost cause compared to just getting your people to vote. There are lots of staunch Democrats and Republicans who just don’t vote very often or at all.
Look at how close the presidential elections have been over the last 20-25 years.
Winning % of popular vote:
H W Bush: 53%
Clinton: 43%
Clinton: 49%
Bush: 48%
Bush 50%
Obama 53%
Obama 51%
Trump: 46%
Every time one party has too much control—Democrat or Republican—they get shown the door the next election. That has been true forever. People like The Focus seem panicked that Republicans will not all vote for Trump a second time. That is exactly what will happen—they won't vote for a democrat; if they vote they will leave the president vote blank on their ballots.
The Fokus wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
1) I have said and still believe that Trump will not finish his first term.
We're getting to a point in which simple timing would prevent a situation in which Trump does not finish his first term. The Mueller investigation is not finished. In fact, it appears to have a ways to go base[d] on the fact that many of those closest to the POTUS have yet to be interviewed (to our knowledge). Mueller is unlikely to issue a final report until he has interviewed Trump.
The investigation is likely to come to a standstill for a few months while the mid terms play out. Getting the POTUS to sit for an interview is likely to be tied up in the courts for a period of time. Once a final report is issued, even with potential criminal charges, the actions taken by the final report or even the criminal charges (to me highly unlikely) will take until beyond the 2020 election cycle.
The 2020 election cycle isn't going to be affected nearly as much by the Mueller investigation as some Democrats would like to believe. Those who support Trump don't care about this stuff and, in fact, it probably serves more to galvanize them and rally them to vote more than anything.
This states my own thoughts very well--except it's more succinct and clear. Thank you.
We really need to learn from recent history. Ken Starr was on the job as special counsel for more than four years. While Mueller seems to be working quite expeditiously, the only way he could issue a final report before the 2018 elections would be by cutting the investigation short and thus essentially clearing Trump. The Dems would not be happy.
At the earliest a full report/recommendation might appear in the latter part of 2019, it seems to me. But be careful what you wish for: When WJClinton was being impeached and tried, his popularity/approval rating went UP, and stayed fairly high for the remainder of his (second) term. I don't think the Dems would be happy about a boost in DJT's approval ratings in the twelve months preceding the 2020 election; and, as you say, even the prospect of impeachment would likely rally Trump's fans.
I continue to acknowledge the real possibility that the House will turn blue this fall--though it's hardly a done deal, and I think the chances of that happening are no better than a coin flip. I don't know of any source that foresees a blue Senate--and a somewhat padded GOP majority there seems pretty likely. In sum, any kind of impeachment effort before the 2020 elections would be bound to fizzle.
I think the Democrats' best *realistic* strategy would be to push for a blue Senate in 2020--and to push very hard for majority-blue state legislatures, to apportion districts after the 2020 census. And in general--though I'm well aware of how difficult it would be with this president!--I think they should try to make the 2018/2020 elections about something(s) other than Trump. The last all-about-Trump election did not go well for them--and they lost a *lot* more than just the presidency.
Won't work wrote:
People like The Focus seem panicked that Republicans will not all vote for Trump a second time. That is exactly what will happen—they won't vote for a democrat; if they vote they will leave the president vote blank on their ballots.
Panicked? Hardly. In fact, I hope they all don't vote for a candidate. I just think that's unlikely to any great degree.
On a lighter note, folks: In ten days (May 22nd, that is) this four-year presidential term will be one-third over!
The Fokus wrote:
Won't work wrote:
People like The Focus seem panicked that Republicans will not all vote for Trump a second time. That is exactly what will happen—they won't vote for a democrat; if they vote they will leave the president vote blank on their ballots.
Panicked? Hardly. In fact, I hope they all don't vote for a candidate. I just think that's unlikely to any great degree.
You really need to go off and learn of about parties in power and elections that follow. Trump will score a lot of Republican blank votes for president.
Won't work wrote:
You really need to go off and learn of about parties in power and elections that follow. Trump will score a lot of Republican blank votes for president.
I don't "really need" to do anything but I do hope you ultimately are correct.
kibitzer wrote:
This states my own thoughts very well--except it's more succinct and clear. Thank you.
We really need to learn from recent history. Ken Starr was on the job as special counsel for more than four years. While Mueller seems to be working quite expeditiously, the only way he could issue a final report before the 2018 elections would be by cutting the investigation short and thus essentially clearing Trump. The Dems would not be happy.
At the earliest a full report/recommendation might appear in the latter part of 2019, it seems to me. But be careful what you wish for: When WJClinton was being impeached and tried, his popularity/approval rating went UP, and stayed fairly high for the remainder of his (second) term. I don't think the Dems would be happy about a boost in DJT's approval ratings in the twelve months preceding the 2020 election; and, as you say, even the prospect of impeachment would likely rally Trump's fans.
I continue to acknowledge the real possibility that the House will turn blue this fall--though it's hardly a done deal, and I think the chances of that happening are no better than a coin flip. I don't know of any source that foresees a blue Senate--and a somewhat padded GOP majority there seems pretty likely. In sum, any kind of impeachment effort before the 2020 elections would be bound to fizzle.
I think the Democrats' best *realistic* strategy would be to push for a blue Senate in 2020--and to push very hard for majority-blue state legislatures, to apportion districts after the 2020 census. And in general--though I'm well aware of how difficult it would be with this president!--I think they should try to make the 2018/2020 elections about something(s) other than Trump. The last all-about-Trump election did not go well for them--and they lost a *lot* more than just the presidency.
Agreed and, in particular, the last point.
The Fokus wrote:
Won't work wrote:
You really need to go off and learn of about parties in power and elections that follow. Trump will score a lot of Republican blank votes for president.
I don't "really need" to do anything but I do hope you ultimately are correct.
Keep the blinders on. You don't want to "do anything" because you are afraid of the answer.
Election history will repeat itself -- it always has. Trump will lose power when Democrats take over the House, and probably Senate. If the Democrats win the presidency in 2020 then expect the Republicans to take over at least one of the three branches of government in 2024.