Hey, Igy, maybe it's just different this time.
And if it were going to be different, i would think it's very likely that it would be due to companies which could redefine their industry the way Amazon has redefined retail, for example, or the way Apple has redefined digital communication.
Comparing debt to something like networth does not illustrate the extreme level of debt yet it is often used comparatively. The two accelerate together most often, not sure how the other comparison factor, however from what I have read credit card debt and auto debt are at record levels.
Igy
Seattle,
OK, but AAPL and AMZN will revisit $100 stock prices. It is more a criticism of valuation rather than the viability of the businesses. Neither firm is immune from a normal budiness cycle, and an extreme downward cycle, who knows where they will land?
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
OK, but AAPL and AMZN will revisit $100 stock prices. It is more a criticism of valuation rather than the viability of the businesses. Neither firm is immune from a normal budiness cycle, and an extreme downward cycle, who knows where they will land?
Igy
Solid analysis. Maybe your pro-Russian mentors could help you out.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
OK, we’ll see how it workout for you. Reversion to the mean my friend.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-08-02_8-35-53_0.jpg?itok=mzviJSK2Igy
Anyone who invested early in Apple and Google, and held on, are likely to make significant profit no matter what.
seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
OK, but AAPL and AMZN will revisit $100 stock prices. It is more a criticism of valuation rather than the viability of the businesses. Neither firm is immune from a normal budiness cycle, and an extreme downward cycle, who knows where they will land?
Igy
Solid analysis. Maybe your pro-Russian mentors could help you out.
My analysis of their business prospects going forward are more relevant than a backward looking one. We’ll see Seattle.
Igy
Not a fun fact wrote:
Fun fact wrote:
Household debt as a percentage of GDP has dropped significantly in the past 10 years.
No it's not.
It’s not what? You used the present tense to respond to a post in the past tense.
Wish I had invested wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Seattle,
OK, we’ll see how it workout for you. Reversion to the mean my friend.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-08-02_8-35-53_0.jpg?itok=mzviJSK2Igy
Anyone who invested early in Apple and Google, and held on, are likely to make significant profit no matter what.
Sure, you are right (maybe), nothing like this has happened before (maybe).
https://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/08/opinion/reckonings-create-and-destroy.htmlKlondike5 wrote:
Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.
Maybe 5%
What's the bottom?
I am betting sub 13,000
Shouldn't this thread have this post at the start of every page with the current Dow price?
25,326 at the close today. I haven't read all 1300 posts yet, so I'm not sure if Klondike has come back on here yet to admit he's a total moron. But if he hasn't, he should.
I'll take my 5 years of consistent 11% returns that I've made while he was spouting doom and gloom.
The bears are still amazingly active on this thread after 5 years of being wrong. Some day they'll be right. Meanwhile, I've almost doubled my investments while they've been saying the bottom is going to fall out, while I assume they have been losing their asses on shorts and/or sitting on the sidelines waiting for the inevitable down turn.
Warren Buffett recommends throwing your money in an S&P 500 fund and forgetting it exists, which is what I do. But I still come on this thread for entertainment. It's not that often you get to see people be consistently wrong for 5 years in a row, and keep posting.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
My analysis of their business prospects going forward are more relevant than a backward looking one. We’ll see Seattle.
Igy
Yet you often cite the CAPE10 which is backward looking. You are just cherry picking data to fit your pessimistic narrative.
Go, Pats!
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
My analysis of their business prospects going forward are more relevant than a backward looking one. We’ll see Seattle.
Igy
Yet you often cite the CAPE10 which is backward looking. You are just cherry picking data to fit your pessimistic narrative.
Go, Pats!
Of course distorted by your interpretation of CAPE. Any forwatd or backward analysis of AMZN would prove an excessive valuation.
Go Fats....inflate Brady’s ? balls
UsedToBeKnowItAll wrote:
Klondike5 wrote:
Down to 14,850 from a peak of 15,700 I believe.
Maybe 5%
What's the bottom?
I am betting sub 13,000
Shouldn't this thread have this post at the start of every page with the current Dow price?
25,326 at the close today. I haven't read all 1300 posts yet, so I'm not sure if Klondike has come back on here yet to admit he's a total moron. But if he hasn't, he should.
I'll take my 5 years of consistent 11% returns that I've made while he was spouting doom and gloom.
The bears are still amazingly active on this thread after 5 years of being wrong. Some day they'll be right. Meanwhile, I've almost doubled my investments while they've been saying the bottom is going to fall out, while I assume they have been losing their asses on shorts and/or sitting on the sidelines waiting for the inevitable down turn.
Warren Buffett recommends throwing your money in an S&P 500 fund and forgetting it exists, which is what I do. But I still come on this thread for entertainment. It's not that often you get to see people be consistently wrong for 5 years in a row, and keep posting.
Warren Buffett is not God, you provide liquidity for his gains:
https://www.thenation.com/article/special-investigation-the-dirty-secret-behind-warren-buffetts-billions/This Igy guy is a huge sore loser.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Yet you often cite the CAPE10 which is backward looking. You are just cherry picking data to fit your pessimistic narrative.
Go, Pats!
Of course distorted by your interpretation of CAPE. Any forwatd or backward analysis of AMZN would prove an excessive valuation.
Go Fats....inflate Brady’s ? balls
Are you seriously suggesting that CAPE10 is NOT backward looking? Are you ignorant or just dishonest?
Go, Pats!
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The bears are still amazingly active on this thread after 5 years of being wrong.
No they are not!
There has only been one for years. Just multiple handles.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
UsedToBeKnowItAll wrote:
Shouldn't this thread have this post at the start of every page with the current Dow price?
25,326 at the close today. I haven't read all 1300 posts yet, so I'm not sure if Klondike has come back on here yet to admit he's a total moron. But if he hasn't, he should.
I'll take my 5 years of consistent 11% returns that I've made while he was spouting doom and gloom.
The bears are still amazingly active on this thread after 5 years of being wrong. Some day they'll be right. Meanwhile, I've almost doubled my investments while they've been saying the bottom is going to fall out, while I assume they have been losing their asses on shorts and/or sitting on the sidelines waiting for the inevitable down turn.
Warren Buffett recommends throwing your money in an S&P 500 fund and forgetting it exists, which is what I do. But I still come on this thread for entertainment. It's not that often you get to see people be consistently wrong for 5 years in a row, and keep posting.
Warren Buffett is not God, you provide liquidity for his gains:
https://www.thenation.com/article/special-investigation-the-dirty-secret-behind-warren-buffetts-billions/
This is ridiculous. You have it exactly backwards. By the Warren Buffets of the world being invested, they supply the liquidity for us small investors to trade in and out (or buy and hold) and have the luxury of doing so. But i guess that reality doesn't support your narrative.
And your whole premise that the small investors are the taking the fall for institutions who are cashing out just is not supported by the fact that most of these large tech. plays are owned more by institituital investors than small investors. Apple 59% held by institutions, Netflix 76% held by institutions, Microsoft 72% held by institutions, etc.
I am pretty sure the Buffett piece was produced by the Russians.
Seattle,
Come on, someone is selling the stock, where does it come from? Tim Cook maybe? It is a big in and out game. The out will come again in a few days, weeks, months who knows? And one of these days the unsuspecting will be left holding the bag. And it will have nothing to do with the Russians but rather a broken system, investors will be tricked again by inconvenient facts.
Igy
Stanley Morgan wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Of course distorted by your interpretation of CAPE. Any forwatd or backward analysis of AMZN would prove an excessive valuation.
Go Fats....inflate Brady’s ? balls
Are you seriously suggesting that CAPE10 is NOT backward looking? Are you ignorant or just dishonest?
Go, Pats!
No but Brady and Bellichick are. Go Fats!
