Looks like I can answer my own question.
it appears 11/19 is cutoff.
Looks like I can answer my own question.
it appears 11/19 is cutoff.
Tuohy is running Foot Locker.
These NIKE shills can leave the thread.
Foot Locker = National Championship.
Deadstream wrote:
Liverpool and FM are going to NXN.
Liverpool because they're the best team in NY right now.
And FM, because they're FM, and they don't not go to NXN.
That puts the battle at 3rd place, and an 'at large' bid, which you could make an argument for North Rockland being in the mix for...but I have a pretty hard time seeing them taking 3rd over a healthy Saratoga, despite the real good progress they've made over the course of the season.
And even if they did, it's still probably pretty unlikely that there aren't four 3rd or 4th place teams from other regions who are more worthy of 'at large' bids than they are.
So the question becomes...
Do you put this team in that scenario, where it's 'iffy' at best that they'll qualify for NXN, and wait until next year to have Miss Tuohy go answer all of those Footlocker questions?
Or do you go handle the Footlocker thing now, and wait until next year to go after the NXN bid, when this whole team returns a year older and stronger, and could potentially be a podium contender in Portland?
I just don't see North Rockland going to NXN this year, and it seems pretty silly to take this shot now and not have Tuohy do Footlocker, if that's still their plan, when you should theoretically have a better team to go at NXN with next year.
If North Rockland takes the NXN-NY shot this year, you'll probably never see Katelyn Tuohy run Footlocker.
I say that Tuohy doesn't "need" to go answer the FL thing. She does not "need" the super hype that will surround that.
What if she does super well. What if she does average. What if she does not do well. All three are not necessarily good. She needs this even less in her Soph year.
I can certainly see Pezzementi with a 120 to 125 speed rating in the next month (now 111). I can also see Fagelman (or the other freshman) at a speed rating of at least 115 (now 108). That would be a very strong #5 (almost as strong as Liverpool's #5). It could be enough to push them ahead of FM and Saratoga. They have 3 weeks to figure this out.
Right now NR is better than the #1 team in the northeast (Champlain). It would be a shame if they did not at least participate at NXR.
lkjkl wrote:
Tuohy is running Foot Locker.
These NIKE shills can leave the thread.
Foot Locker = National Championship.
Assuming Tuohy goes to NXN, then based on last year (and current HS ranking):
#1 Tuohy - NXN
#2 Hart - NXN and FL
#3 Chmiel (there is no way that she doesn't go to NXR) - NXN
#4 Lane (will go to FL) - FL
#5 Covert - NXN and FL
#6 Vander Lende - FL
#7 Culbreath - NXN
#8 Walters (no way she does not go to NXR) - NXN
#9 Ewert - NXN
#10 Starliper - FL
#11 Gaitan - NXN
#12 Connolly - ?
8 of the top 11 go to NXN (including the top 3)
5 of top 11 go to FL
Yvftfyvvftf wrote:
I say that Tuohy doesn't "need" to go answer the FL thing. She does not "need" the super hype that will surround that.
What if she does super well. What if she does average. What if she does not do well. All three are not necessarily good. She needs this even less in her Soph year.
I can certainly see Pezzementi with a 120 to 125 speed rating in the next month (now 111). I can also see Fagelman (or the other freshman) at a speed rating of at least 115 (now 108). That would be a very strong #5 (almost as strong as Liverpool's #5). It could be enough to push them ahead of FM and Saratoga. They have 3 weeks to figure this out.
Right now NR is better than the #1 team in the northeast (Champlain). It would be a shame if they did not at least participate at NXR.
Please don't misunderstand me. I don't think there's any reason why Tuohy HAS to run Footlocker, and she certainly doesn't have to prove anything to anyone.
I'm just working under the paradigm they've laid out for her all year, and I think it's silly to not have her do Footlocker this year with a team that might 'sneak in' to NXN, as opposed to next year when they might have five 130 plus athletes and have a shot at maybe winning NXN, if that's their plan.
Good listing. I agree since Lane is not at form, and who knows, may not even race in FL this year, there is nothing from a competitive standpoint at FL that would not be there at NXN. The only thing I see is how fast she could run at that course. But given her times at numerous other venues as well as on the track, I am not sure what that really adds to her resume. If her team had no chance at NXN NY, I would say go FL but at least as we speak they may have a chance. Decide in 2-3 weeks.
...more importantly, if you are Connelly (who ran a 16:35!!! last week), what do you run? NXN or FL? If you run FL (and Tuohy runs NXN), then you have a chance to win. If you run NXN, you get to run against the best, but you will not win and may not even podium.
Duane wrote:
How late can they make the decision on NXN vs FL? Perhaps they see how things go vs FM (NY State championship) on November 10 and then decide?
FM and Liverpool are both in Section III , Group A . Only one gets to go to The State Meet .
oh thank you did not realize that
more on FL, without Tuohy, or last year's version of Lane, this could turn out to be a very competitive race, though I think Hart is better than her numbers thus far.
Duane wrote:
oh thank you did not realize that
The top 5 finishers not on the winning team also go . So theoretically , despite losing , FM's top 5 could still go , but it's very unlikely . Maybe their top 3 would qualify .
http://www.tullyrunners.com/RankGirls.htm#CLASS_Aso then, unless FM goes to Federations which I hear would be unusual, a pre NXR NR FM matchup would only be on paper?
since Lane is not at form, JESUS SHE ISN'T RUNNING THIS SEASON!
yea, well I was kinda giving her the benefit of the doubt, last I saw she was not running yet, still hoped to qualify for Fl, but recognized she would likely not compete for 1st. If there is something more recent, please post the link.
Interestingly, Tully is calling the FM/Liverpool matchup in section 3 class A virtually dead even. The key driver is that even tho FM's #5 only has a 102 SR, well below that of Liverpool #5 (115) there is only one other runner in section 3 class A between 102 and 115 so the projected place is only 2 slots lower, whereas one would normally expect it to be significantly more. But, FM#2 is barely ahead of Liverpool #3 who is barely ahead of FM #3 (White) who is still trying to get back to last seasons form. So this really could go either way. So Liverpool is probably the better team in a big race, but in this section race it might go the other way.
Duane wrote:
Interestingly, Tully is calling the FM/Liverpool matchup in section 3 class A virtually dead even. The key driver is that even tho FM's #5 only has a 102 SR, well below that of Liverpool #5 (115) there is only one other runner in section 3 class A between 102 and 115 so the projected place is only 2 slots lower, whereas one would normally expect it to be significantly more. But, FM#2 is barely ahead of Liverpool #3 who is barely ahead of FM #3 (White) who is still trying to get back to last seasons form. So this really could go either way. So Liverpool is probably the better team in a big race, but in this section race it might go the other way.
Wow, a lot of thought put in this prediction. I would love for them to make a prediction for NXR. Of course, there will be more data available after Saturday.
http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2018/PredictSec3_2018.htmDuane wrote:
so then, unless FM goes to Federations which I hear would be unusual, a pre NXR NR FM matchup would only be on paper?
Do you have a non-sexual crush on KT? You seem creepily to involved.
If you knew the site, perhaps check preview years, they do all of those predictions as the season unfolds!
I guess that DyeStat agrees with my ranking for NY.
http://dyestatxcrankings.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=46052&do=news&news_id=545944
Asfvtstfvs wrote:
...more importantly, if you are Connelly (who ran a 16:35!!! last week), what do you run? NXN or FL? If you run FL (and Tuohy runs NXN), then you have a chance to win. If you run NXN, you get to run against the best, but you will not win and may not even podium.
The Brown course is short and very fast, Connelly is not up with the top XC runners in this country.