Official 2014 Boston Marathon Race Discussion Thread

rojo · 2014-04-21T07:59:52-04:00

It's Patriots Day in Boston and race day is upon us. It should be thrilling. A few comments. We asked our wind expert - John Kellogg (JK) - to comment on the weather. Yesterday morning, when the wind forecast was for a SSW of 7-8 mph, we asked JK how that would impact the race. The course runs mainly West to East but it does go slightly from the south to the North as shown here: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_YQsV8uA1vvU/S9G7NqwAawI/AAAAAAAAEJw/702xB5sGJCw/s320/boston-CourseMap.gif Here is what JK wrote: [quote][b]JK wrote:[/b] There should be a tailwind component of 4-6 mph for the race, which in theory would make the times about 55 to 85 seconds faster than they would be if there was no wind. A little bit about wind readings: Unless a weather report specifically indicates the readings are those at ground level, wind speeds can be assumed to be taken 10 meters above ground in open areas (e.g., airports), and the wind speed that runners experience at chest/head level usually ranges from 40% to 80% of the reported speed, depending on surrounding objects (open areas vs. buildings, trees, etc.) and elevation (low sections of road vs. hilltops or overpasses). That's why you'll often see wind gauge readings of 4 mps (about 9 mph) at track meets when current weather reports show a 20 mph wind and it sure feels like it's a lot stronger than you'd expect 9 mph to feel. The wind gauge is actually closer to the ground than the heads and chests of the athletes, so runners are typically experiencing abut 12 mph of wind on a 20 mph wind day (unless the race is in an extremely flat, wide-open area like a prairie or a coastline, in which case the chest-level wind speed could be up to 80% of the reported speed). But for practical purposes, we can usually just use the reported wind speed to make time comparisons against calm conditions. Those comparisons can never be perfect because of the quirky nature of wind and the effects of terrain and surrounding objects. The real world isn't a wind tunnel, so take any prediction about the time benefit of a tailwind as a ballpark estimate.[/quote] The forecast has changed since he wrote that. It's expected to be more of a southerly wind. Last night, it was supposed to be out of the South but now still says SSW and then S. If it was straight out of the South, JK said on the phone it would probably help around 30 seconds versus there being now wind. In summary, the conditions are there for a fast day if the runner's decide to run fast. Temps will be in the 50s and sunny. A little warmer than ideal but a perfect day all told when considering what the spectators want. A few more intersting tidbits that I got from the press conference on Friday but haven't shared yet. I talked to top Ethiopian men's entrants in defending champ Desisa as well as 2:05:27 man Regassa who trains with Desisa. Both said they were in shape, but when I asked Regassa who was in better shape, he didn't hesitate at all. He pointed to Desisa. So the scuttlebutt is he's very much ready to defend. I also talked to Kenya's Kimetto who indicated he was happy with his fitness as well. In terms of getting seeing an American winner in Boston, here's one interesting scenario to consider down the road. Maybe the USA's best bet it to get a citizenship change. I asked LetsRun.com visitor Worku Beyi - the husband and coach of Deba - the Ethiopian woman who lives in the bronx - if they might become US citizens since they live here. He said, "Yes," and revealed he is actually getting his citizenship in October. I then asked if this meant Deba would run for the US in 2016. He thought she'd have to wait 5 years for citizenship (and said she was hoping to get a green card) but I told him I thought cirizenship could be expedited (wasn't it for Khanouchi). As for Desisa, he was outfitted in some sweet red, whie and blue adidas gear. I told him that looked like an American outfit and he said he'd love to get an American passport. Deba is obviously a real candidate. Desisa's mark seemed more like just a friendly statement. In the press room, they hopefully will have a split update each and every mile - much more than what you can get via tracking. I'll try to update them as I get them (and am actually going to be sending them via text to a top coach who asked for my help. If that American wins with a late surge, of course, we will be taking credit for it). I hope everyone enjoys the race - it should be awesome. In case you aren't up to date.

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12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:04am EDT

re: shame

Well she's certainly sticking to her plan to lead. She floated back into 3rd-4th at the aid station and confidently asserted herself at the front again almost immediately. And she looks pretty comfortable right now. How sweet would it be if she can hang on?!No turning back now from these tactics! Come on, Shalane!!!

shame wrote:
I really hope Shalane has the tools to string this out and steal the win. Really hope she isn't blowing her shot here and essentially putting herself out as a glorified pace-maker for the others.
Thoughts? Think she can hold on? Has what, 40ish minutes left of running?

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:04am EDT

re: SloweRyan

Clearly Larry Rawson has been studying his metric conversions.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:04am EDT

re: yourmom.com

Top 20 at 25km.

Pos. Name BIB Division Age State Proj. finish Proj. daytime Diff Time

1 Flanagan, Shalane (USA) F17 Female 18-39 32 OR 02:19:07 11:51:07AM +00:00 01:22:26

2 Deba, Buzunesh (ETH) F10 Female 18-39 26 02:19:08 11:51:08AM +00:00 01:22:26

3 Dibaba, Mare (ETH) F2 Female 18-39 24 02:19:08 11:51:08AM +00:00 01:22:26

4 Jeptoo, Rita (KEN) F1 Female 18-39 33 02:19:08 11:51:09AM +00:00 01:22:26

5 Oljira, Belaynesh (ETH) F16 Female 18-39 23 02:19:08 11:51:09AM +00:00 01:22:26

6 Melkamu, Meselech (ETH) F25 Female 18-39 29 02:19:08 11:51:09AM +00:01 01:22:27

7 Sumgong, Jemima Jelagat (KEN) F3 Female 18-39 29 02:19:08 11:51:09AM +00:01 01:22:27

8 Cherop, Sharon (KEN) F6 Female 18-39 30 02:19:09 11:51:09AM +00:01 01:22:27

9 Duliba, Aleksandra (BLR) F12 Female 18-39 26 02:20:46 11:52:47AM +00:58 01:23:24

10 Ongori, Philes (KEN) F15 Female 18-39 27 02:20:49 11:52:49AM +01:00 01:23:26

11 Linden, Desiree (USA) F8 Female 18-39 30 MI 02:23:30 11:55:31AM +02:36 01:25:02

12 Esayias, Yeshi (ETH) F14 Female 18-39 28 02:23:30 11:55:31AM +02:36 01:25:02

13 Kilel, Caroline (KEN) F7 Female 18-39 33 02:24:24 11:56:24AM +03:07 01:25:33

14 Chepchichir, Flomena (KEN) F9 Female 18-39 32 02:24:57 11:56:58AM +03:27 01:25:53

15 Marchant, Lanni (CAN) F20 Female 18-39 30 ON 02:25:40 11:57:40AM +03:52 01:26:18

16 Burla, Serena (USA) F21 Female 18-39 31 VA 02:27:03 11:59:04AM +04:42 01:27:08

17 Petrova Arkhipova, Tatiana (RUS) F11 Female 18-39 31 02:28:14 12:00:15PM +05:24 01:27:50

18 Nelson, Adriana (USA) F23 Female 18-39 34 CO 02:28:50 12:00:51PM +05:45 01:28:11

19 Thomas, Wendy (USA) F30 Female 18-39 35 CO 02:29:29 12:01:29PM +06:08 01:28:34

20 Aparecida da Silva, Adriana (BRA) F24 Female 18-39 32 02:29:37 12:01:38PM +06:13 01:28:39

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:04am EDT

re: runner26.2

runner26.2 wrote:
Meb is Christian ... like most Eritreans.

Eritrea is a closed state. The system of government is dictatorship. Not being Christian or Muslim is punishable by death or life imprisonment in a work camp and even then you can only belong to certain sects.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:04am EDT

re: rojo

All you guys with criticism for shalane are unbelievable. She's a brave woman doing exactly what she needs to do. USA should be proud to have runners not afraid to lead. Crossing fingers for her!

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:04am EDT

re: Trollie McSockpuppet

Flanagan-"better to burn out than fade away", "I'd rather die from the front than finish from the rear". Run girl run. USA!USA!

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:05am EDT

re: rojo

Shalane's still leading but she's starting to feel it.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:05am EDT

re: MrGambinus

MrGambinus wrote:
first ladies fading

Aaand someone smelled blood and went to the front besides Shalane. Trying to get control or trying to push more because ppl start fading?

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:06am EDT

re: G

Blonde white girl in lead!

Ignore the blacks in the mens race.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:06am EDT

re: G

G wrote:
MY HOPE is that Shalane is using her local course knowledge and pushing the downhills to drain everyone else's kick. Those Boston downhills are surprisingly damaging. She's turning it into a survival slugfest (not dependent on kicks) the last 4-miles. Wicked strategy, IF it works. It's a long shot, but damn -- I hope it works.

this^

I guess the thought is that you can sit and WAIT to be out kicked, or you can take it to them for 26 miles and make it a slugfest.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:06am EDT

re: hillbilly hoofer

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:06am EDT

re: swifter

swifter wrote:
All you guys with criticism for shalane are unbelievable. She's a brave woman doing exactly what she needs to do. USA should be proud to have runners not afraid to lead. Crossing fingers for her!

Personally I'd rather see her win than see her leading the first 20 miles.

But maybe that's just me.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:06am EDT

re: Ralph Wiggum

But what we all really want to know...

IS THE BLACK CACTUS STILL IN THE PACK!?

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:07am EDT

re: Edward Teach

11 Linden, Desiree (USA) F8 Female 18-39 30 MI 02:23:30 11:55:31AM +02:36 01:25:02

Desi will be top 5. Women's pack is starting to break up. Many will limp home after the torrid pace so far.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:08am EDT

re: v6

Hall 53 seconds back at the half... did he stop to kiss a girl?

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:08am EDT

re: runfrancisco

runfrancisco wrote:
LET'S GO SHALANE!!!

Who?

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:08am EDT

re: Precious Roy

woman lead pack down to 6 including shalane

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:08am EDT

re: swifter

Joan Benoit split 4:47 her first mile in 1983 and 51:38 for 10 miles (they were 52:48 today.

http://www.runnersworld.com/elite-runners/brief-chat-joan-benoit-samuelson

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:09am EDT

re: v6

Everyone seems to be assuming if SF just tucked in, her chances of winning would go up. It could be her best shot is the slugfest. Sit and kick is only a good strategy for 1 person.

12 years ago 04/21/2014 10:09am EDT

re: MrGambinus

This coverage is awful.

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