accurate result wrote:
MIT was overrated all year, and everyone in the NE region knew it. They were never considered a serious contender to qualify
September 18th, they certainly were! But like usual, their coach ruins them over the course of the season. He needs to make them do their summer workouts in the fall and they'd dominate.
MIT and Keene state have made a hobby of getting slower as the season progresses, at least in recent years.
How about top individual predictions?
Women-
Don't know much, but Williams, Middlebury, and Wash U's top girls should all be up there.
Men-
Nelson? (just cruised to Q at regionals)
Perez?
Berube?
Sathre? (second place last year)
Schmidt?
Arnold?
Horowitz?
Kerr?
Rand?
Burnstein?
Brainerd? (seems to be peaking better this year)
I'll go with Sathre, Brainerd and Perez for my top 3
Ben Sathre of St. Thomas (MN)will certainly challenge for the individual title.
I predict a battle between Burnstein, Sathre, and Perez @ nationals.
Perez cruised to victory at regionals, but I feel that we've yet to see the best from Burnstein. And Sathre will for sure be looking to take the individual crown after being a spot away last year.
Its going to be an intense 3 way battle between Middlebury, Williams, and WashU
This may be one of the more exciting nationals from a team standpoint for women in years.
He's certainly not the favorite, but Dee Salukombo should be right there. He's been running very well for most of the season. Despite being a member of a rival team, I'd be lying if I said that I wasn't rooting for him. I haven't finished many races over the last few years where Dee wasn't standing at the finish waiting to congratulate every guy who crossed the line; plus he did this (it's almost certainly been posted before but I don't think it can be posted enough):
He has more fun running than anyone I've ever had the pleasure of meeting; and it's been great to see Dee on a regular basis for four years. I've never seen him without a smile on his face, and can only hope that at the end of his last collegiate XC race he's smiling (at least in part) because he's crossing the line first.
Darkhorse FTW.
Great call-- it's hard to imagine a Great Lakes individual (non-Calvin) winning-- but Salukombo and McCarthy (Wabash) both look as tough as anyone in the country. I won't show my age here-- but a while ago I ran in the NCAC, and to see what Dee Salukombo has done for running in that league is amazing. The Allegheny runners, for sure, have done amazing things, as well-- but Dee at 14:18 5k, and a 24:30 earlier this year just must put him near the top for the individual title this year. On a side note for interested parties only: will this nationals year be the overall best for the NCAC league ever? Wabash/Allegheny, McCarthy, Salukombo?
I've only met the MIT coach once, and know none of their runners, but I think it's probably fair to counter this limited viewpoint:
It's probably not the workouts they're doing summer to fall; it's probably the fact that MIT is fu*king hard. You have no clue how hard the average MIT student works. Very very very few schools could possibly have any idea. Only elite engineering/math schools. They're not getting enough sleep during the fall; I guarantee it. Sure, there are some kids who will handle everything in their lives as MIT, and MIT has some very good runners now and again (approx 30 national champs under the current coach, if I'm not mistaken? Which I might be. I'm not going to look it up, because my point stands regardless).
I don't find this a valid excuse/variable at many places. I've heard it used to defend Cal and Princeton, and to that I say bullshit. That's where coaching has to be more than writing workouts, recruiting and administering. But it's totally what goes on at MIT.
Don't be surprised if Eric Reichert (Elizabethtown) is in the mix at the finish -- sure, he was 21st in the region this year, but he's a 2x all american who came in 16th at regionals and moved up to 11th in the nation last year. The kid can always pull a great race out of his ass when he needs to.
Cowboy Bebop wrote:
Don't be surprised if Eric Reichert (Elizabethtown) is in the mix at the finish -- sure, he was 21st in the region this year, but he's a 2x all american who came in 16th at regionals and moved up to 11th in the nation last year. The kid can always pull a great race out of his ass when he needs to.
Whole Etown team got a bad start at regionals it seems, they were all 10 seconds behind the field at the mile mark.
http://athletics.desales.edu/custompages/mcc/2011/R111211BC.HTMLSo it's not an excuse for Cal, but things are just totally different at MIT? Excuses excuses. There is no way that people are working so hard that they don't have time to sleep. They are not working 15 hour days.
the people lined up on the left side of that clusterfcuk starting line got the shaft for sure, but you have to give allegh. joho and dicks some credit.Mideast wrote:
Cowboy Bebop wrote:Don't be surprised if Eric Reichert (Elizabethtown) is in the mix at the finish -- sure, he was 21st in the region this year, but he's a 2x all american who came in 16th at regionals and moved up to 11th in the nation last year. The kid can always pull a great race out of his ass when he needs to.
Whole Etown team got a bad start at regionals it seems, they were all 10 seconds behind the field at the mile mark.
http://athletics.desales.edu/custompages/mcc/2011/R111211BC.HTML
Calling Berube for the win... won regionals easily (leading the entire way) and has not been challenged in any race this year
Freelove wrote:
So it's not an excuse for Cal, but things are just totally different at MIT? Excuses excuses. There is no way that people are working so hard that they don't have time to sleep. They are not working 15 hour days.
Cal doesn't hold a candle to MIT.
They definitely are working 15 hour days, EASILY. It's clear you've never been nor know anyone who goes.
Back to running, here's something to keep in mind -
Oshkosh is a grass track. The 'tough' XC guys are kind of SOL on this course. Those who will fare the best are the true 5k/10k track guys IMO.
Take a look at the performance lists from last season, and you'll see tons of those names filling up the All American spots.
IMO, 5 guys break 24, 24:25 gets you All-American.
Berube definitely has the talent to win it, but he never seems to perform come Nationals. He was in the lead pack last spring in the 5k but with 800 to go guys doubling back from the 10k just went by him. He was also in the mix at 4 miles during XC nationals last year but finished 7th. He has the speed (3:53? 1500) to win it if stays all the way to the end, he just needs to actually kick.
Cause we all know that finishing hard the last 800m of a 5 mile race is about speed, not strength, right?
Oshkosh is a fast course, but it has not played out as fast as it used to. It looks like Saturday is going to be rainy with 15mph winds. When the course gets wet, it really slows down and the wind makes it a tad tougher. This might lead to teams being more conservative to start and the making the race the last 3 miles. Regardless, it is still a pancake and the leaders should be under 24:20, but I doubt a sub 24 effort. I would say 24:30 to 24:45 mins gets you All-American.
Here are my predictions, purely based upon Regional results.
Berube - Geneseo
Perez - NCC
Sathre - St. Thomas
Brainard - Colorado College
Arnold - Haverford
Nelson - Stout
McCarthy - Wabash
Brainard - Colorado College
Salukombo - Denison
Schmidt - Middlebury
Kerr - Calvin
Klein - NCC
Deichert - Hamline
Stymiest - Oshkosh
Johnston - St. Lawrence
Schilit - Haverford
Quinlan - Susquehanna
Novara - Geneseo
Burnsetein - Wash U
Rand - Tufts
Dannenhauer - Claremont Mudd
Richardson - Hamline
Horowitz - Bowdoin
Kaul - LaCrosse
Crain - NCC
Lee - Williams
Over - Allegheny
Wasnetsky - Scranton
Jones - Franciscan
Kiplagat - St. Lawrence
Austin - Elmhurst
Sparks - NCC
Wahome - Bridgewater State
Gates - Carnegie Melon
Whitmore - Chicago
Teams
NCC
Haverford
Wash U.
Sorry, didn't mean to have Brainard on there twice.
Cowboy Bebop wrote:
Don't be surprised if Eric Reichert (Elizabethtown) is in the mix at the finish -- sure, he was 21st in the region this year, but he's a 2x all american who came in 16th at regionals and moved up to 11th in the nation last year. The kid can always pull a great race out of his ass when he needs to.
I still don't know how Etown even got in. So what if they were ranked 23rd going into regionals? They stunk it up when it really mattered. That should have counted against them when it came to getting selected for nationals.