anything under 4:03 is a huge win here. being “only” 2 and a bit seconds from sub 4 will be well received by the general public.
it’s an exhibition so sit back and enjoy it for what it is. hopefully Nike has some tricks up their sleeve and she can get close-ish. either way it’ll be fun to watch.
Robert Johnson says no way, but I wonder if two years ago someone told him a woman would run a 2:09 marathon in a couple years what would he have said? Or that two years from now a woman may run a 2:08 marathon. If NIKE and Fath are putting this thing together they must see something in her training or some indication that this could happen. Neither one would want to be humiliated. I don't doubt what any woman can do esp. after that 2:09 marathon. What she ran that 4:07, the world record was 4:12 and her best must have been a second or two slower than that and she lopped almost 7 second off her personal best and she looked fresh at the end. We'll see :)
Robert Johnson says no way, but I wonder if two years ago someone told him a woman would run a 2:09 marathon in a couple years what would he have said? Or that two years from now a woman may run a 2:08 marathon. If NIKE and Fath are putting this thing together they must see something in her training or some indication that this could happen. Neither one would want to be humiliated. I don't doubt what any woman can do esp. after that 2:09 marathon. What she ran that 4:07, the world record was 4:12 and her best must have been a second or two slower than that and she lopped almost 7 second off her personal best and she looked fresh at the end. We'll see :)
but you can't compare a mile to a marathon. In a marathon, it's not that possible to get an optimal TT as in breaking 2, but on the track, both the 1500m and mile WRs were already set in a controlled TT with wavelight. Unless there's a new breakthrough in shoe tech (which I doubt), I don't think Faith would come close. Anything under 4:05 would be a success, and I wouldn't be surprised she can barely break her PR.
And forget about 3:59. No way would that be legit even if that really happened, there gotta be something ridiculous going on like that 8:06 3000m in China.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
That said, maybe she would have hordes of rotating pacers ala breaking 2, and the drafting may have a far bigger effect in a mile v.s a marathon than we realize, so they think she would come close?
It's unlikely Nike would organize an event just to embarrass its athletes.
Can someone give me the highlights of the drafting "study". I remember thinking it was nuts, but also think I said on the podcast, "this isn't that hard to do, they should just organize it now with male pacers."
But there is 0% chance she does this with existing shoes and a legit race with traditional female rabbits.
Honest question: Do you really think someone can break 4 and never run 1:52?
It's not likely. All of the sub-4 guys I knew were 1:49-1:50 guys. Of course, they ran the 800 and 1500 a lot, but the point is, they had the ability to run 1:49-1:50. 1:52 ability is not fast enough.
Can someone give me the highlights of the drafting "study". I remember thinking it was nuts, but also think I said on the podcast, "this isn't that hard to do, they should just organize it now with male pacers."
But there is 0% chance she does this with existing shoes and a legit race with traditional female rabbits.
The pacemakers will not be female. All currently considered are male Nike athletes.
anything under 4:03 is a huge win here. being “only” 2 and a bit seconds from sub 4 will be well received by the general public.
it’s an exhibition so sit back and enjoy it for what it is. hopefully Nike has some tricks up their sleeve and she can get close-ish. either way it’ll be fun to watch.
We can all agree that anything short of a women's world record will be a huge disappointment/fail. I think anything between the WR and 4:04.00 is a moderate disappointment, if under 4:04 but over 4:00.99, a decent outcome, in the 4:00.xx range, a great outcome but still a touch of disappointment, but with another attempt coming soon for sure, and under 4:00, obviously, the jackpot.
Honest question: Do you really think someone can break 4 and never run 1:52?
It's not likely. All of the sub-4 guys I knew were 1:49-1:50 guys. Of course, they ran the 800 and 1500 a lot, but the point is, they had the ability to run 1:49-1:50. 1:52 ability is not fast enough.
1:52 is the magic number. If you can't run that in the 800, you can't break 4. Pay attention. We've discussed this before.
I’m a huge fan of Faith’s but there is absolutely no way this works. Perfect pacing and drafting don’t let you drop over 7 seconds from your world record PR. I’m predicting 4:03.9.
What a dumb article. "she ran 4:07 with little assistance"? Like she ran the whole way into the wind? A WR is WR usually coming against good competition and good conditions on a great day for the legs. Wave lights, pacers have all been used before. 4:07 is not some soft WR, she set it herself in fact. I don't see her taking off more than .5 sec.
Unless....Nike goes full 3 ring circus and has her run behind a vehicle creating a vacuum or something? Or does it on the road slightly downhill?
It's not likely. All of the sub-4 guys I knew were 1:49-1:50 guys. Of course, they ran the 800 and 1500 a lot, but the point is, they had the ability to run 1:49-1:50. 1:52 ability is not fast enough.
1:52 is the magic number. If you can't run that in the 800, you can't break 4. Pay attention. We've discussed this before.
That said, maybe she would have hordes of rotating pacers ala breaking 2, and the drafting may have a far bigger effect in a mile v.s a marathon than we realize, so they think she would come close?
It's unlikely Nike would organize an event just to embarrass its athletes.
Here's a question though - why would she need/want hordes of rotating pacers to begin with? It's a mile?! I couldn't think of anything worse if I was out there in full concentration, trying my best to balance not crossing the red line and there were multiple times guys were getting on and off the track. Plus that is a recipe for absolute disaster anyway.
This isn't the breaking 2 marathon project. How many even half decent pros can run a 4 mile quite evenly and comfortably - especially with wavelight. Sam Tanner just did exactly this with Sam Ruthe in NZ on a crappy track with no wavelight at all. If this is so important to Nike, dip into your check book and pay a McSweyn, Laros or any of about 30 guys that you have that could do this basically as a workout and "create history".
Final point re Nike, as I said I think they are in a place as a brand right now they will try anyway and find a way to convince themselves it's possible to get publicity (including referencing the breaking 2 project while omitting some important factors about why that succeeded). What I am surprised with is how Kipyegon wants to go along with this because she has to know, right? It's been mentioned what the Jakob equivalent would be - probably a 3.38/9 mile. Do you think if Nike said to him "yeah so we are going to send you out at 1.49.0/2.43.5" he would be like "great, sign me up". No chance in hell. Maybe she is the ultimate old school "don't think just run" Kenyan athlete - no concept of what might actually happen?
Your common sense approach and simple math shows this absolutely isnt possible. I believe, as you mention, that it IS more likely to be cancelled than achieved. Thus making it all a disingenuos marketing ploy by Nike. Wouldnt be the 1st or last time, but i would rather see Faith's athletic excellence celebrated and not turned into a sideshow.
You wrote, "She’s not going to break 4:00. And it’s not going to be particularly close."
I agree with you. Sub-4:00 is still out of reach unless there is a super-super-shoe that we don't know about.
However, the part about it not being close depends on your definition of "close." Would a 4:04 be close? For most people, four seconds sounds/is close.
What do you think she can run if she has the best track, best pacers, best draft, best shoes, best bi-carb, etc.?
It's not likely. All of the sub-4 guys I knew were 1:49-1:50 guys. Of course, they ran the 800 and 1500 a lot, but the point is, they had the ability to run 1:49-1:50. 1:52 ability is not fast enough.
1:52 is the magic number. If you can't run that in the 800, you can't break 4. Pay attention. We've discussed this before.
It might be different for a female as we've never had a female even remotely close to this pace. If Beatrice Chebet all of a sudden ran a 1:53, I think we'd be pretty excited for her chances. Faith Kipyegon has run a 1:57, which is nowhere close.
You wrote, "She’s not going to break 4:00. And it’s not going to be particularly close."
I agree with you. Sub-4:00 is still out of reach unless there is a super-super-shoe that we don't know about.
However, the part about it not being close depends on your definition of "close." Would a 4:04 be close? For most people, four seconds sounds/is close.
What do you think she can run if she has the best track, best pacers, best draft, best shoes, best bi-carb, etc.?
Most track fans would not consider a 4:04 or even a 4:03 close. I think its concievable she runs a time around there. But I'd need to see a 4:01.x before I called it close. We are talking 1.5 seconds being roughly 10m, so 4 seconds is way off.
This post was edited 42 seconds after it was posted.
Faith Kipyegon will chase the mythical sub-4:00 mile in Nike’s Breaking4 event—but the science, stats, and history say she won't make it. Here’s why you should bet against the hype.
What's interesting: he adds to RoJo's points by quoting a recent paper that seems to be from some of the team that are actually helping Nike and Kipyegon, which states “is projected to occur in 2030, 2038, or 2065.”
Give me the cited evidence for one person who has a personal best of 1:53 plus who has broken the four minute mile. I'll wait....
What are you talking about? I'm saying 1:52 isn't fast enough for an 800 to run 3:59 in the mile. I don't know anyone who has a 1:53 PR that has broken 4 because you simply can't do it with a 1:53 PR. I thought I already told you everyone I know who ran sub-4 were 1:49-1:50 guys. All the 1:52 guys I knew ran 4:05-4:06.
