IVW was hurt for outdoor. He was definitely in 29:30 shape at a minimum.
I’m more excited to see the rematch of the River Falls dad and Power. And also I think Stevens Point has a good chance to beat St. Olaf.
Yeah, IVW held on for a strong second with his ‘29:30 shape.’
At least the Iowa CC guys will race, so hopefully Bati will get someone to run with before regions (if he wins conference by less than 30 seconds it’ll be an upset)
Very impressed by how easily he beat IVW. Isaac was 3rd at the John McNichols meet, beating many All-Americans, only losing to Grant Matthai and Nathan Tassey.
I would love to see Bati have the national success to spark Augsburg to the national prominence he and his coach deserve. Hopefully Augsburg nominates him for national athlete of the week. Bati capped it all with a surprisingly speedy long run this afternoon. Was he excited after shattering a course record none of the vaunted Northfield of St. Thomas runners could match?
Has anyone ever won four MIAC cross country titles? That puts him in Fiona Smith territory.
I don’t think the Oles ran that well. They’re just not as good now that Phil’s recruits minus Cote (who has regressed under Power) have graduated. They are still good enough to overcome his training but they’ll never be any better than they ran today without better coaching and recruiting. Their underclassmen are very unimpressive.
Bati capped it all with a surprisingly speedy long run this afternoon.
Ok, you kind of undersold the fact his long run wasn’t the normal 20 miler, it was nearly a full marathon, at roughly 3 hr pace and barely 2 hours after race at Carleton.
Oles barely beat some school I've never heard of. They win, but lets face it, the MIAC is down. Still no Gabe or Indy for Carleton.
MSOE has been ranked 10th all season but clearly are better than that. Comparing with their performance at STO invite and how UW-EC and UW-Stout ran there and at Blugold, St Olaf looks like they're holding steady enough to keep their #3 regional ranking.
#3 nationally ranked UW-Whitewater were beaten by #5 Pomona-Pitzer so they'll move down some but hold their regional spot.
St Johns might earn a top 10 regional ranking next week, while Mac will be pushed out. Edwards is back on track, Olsson improved 3:35 from his last race, but Nick Ihrke dropped out, and with Crotteau out from apparently a season-ending injury, they have a big gap to bridge. Am interested to see if Olsson's progress continues. Mac has always had problems because of the junior year semester abroad program. Olsson seemed not to have run a single step while abroad last year, going from '22 conference champ to playing catchup all last spring.
It's still nearly a month until MIAC, so plenty will change.
MSOE should still stay at that ranking. While the Oles raced all out at home because Power desperately wants any trophy he can display in his office that Phil didn't earn, the Wisky schools smartly worked out during the race. MSOE being this close just goes to show how far the Oles have fallen. They don't have a Will Kelly or Logan Bocovich to save them. They don't even have a Kevin Montressor. I'm not sure why're they're spending the money to fly to Connecticut other than to feed Power's ego. If I'm a JV guy I'd be pissed he's not taking whole team to Auggie like other MIAC squads.
The rule is 100 miles, google maps says it is 82 miles from Stout to Carleton. There is some rule about paying for meals, etc. but I doubt anyone cares enough to check on that. At least they left before the meet.
An aspiring runner that the St. Olaf coach won’t let join the team ran a 56 minute 10 mile today. He almost caught an alum that the coach allows to compete in many races as a post collegiate. This sort of gatekeeping is not okay.
Lacctic has Bati as 3rd in the country. Turlington is 31st, Skemp 48th, McKee 78, Roy 97.
Teamwise, Oles are 13, Macalester 35, and St. John's 43.
He was around 100th place coming in. Apparently, pacing another Aggie runner in the opening meet was indicative of his fitness. Still up to Mo to perform in the late season races though.
Do you think an AI program that aggregates performances versus common opponents knows that he was doing something like that? It can only process the data at hand and one performance was absurdly slow. Also, as has been well established, his outdoor track times are not fast in comparison to his in-season cross country success.
I’d ask Bijan to explain the math behind it, but it is obvious you wouldn’t understand.
Do you think an AI program that aggregates performances versus common opponents knows that he was doing something like that? It can only process the data at hand and one performance was absurdly slow. Also, as has been well established, his outdoor track times are not fast in comparison to his in-season cross country success.
I’d ask Bijan to explain the math behind it, but it is obvious you wouldn’t understand.
I’m a data scientist so I’d probably understand just fine. The model should exclude outlier times that are several standard deviations above or below an athlete’s median/mean performance.
I get if someone runs ~30 seconds slower for an 8k because they were pacing it is hard to identify, but pretty easy to see that a 5k 3 minutes slower than a typical performance isn’t indicative of current fitness.
That’s barely a 28 minute 8 which is not overly competitive. While I don’t think he should restrict his roster based on the D3 model of participation that’s also not an athlete that will factor into even their top 20 athletes. It’s likely the alum is simply out of shape or maybe pacing someone. Several alumni ran close to 50:00. He could transfer to at least seven of the MIAC schools and make their top 7.
Do you think an AI program that aggregates performances versus common opponents knows that he was doing something like that? It can only process the data at hand and one performance was absurdly slow. Also, as has been well established, his outdoor track times are not fast in comparison to his in-season cross country success.
I’d ask Bijan to explain the math behind it, but it is obvious you wouldn’t understand.
I’m a data scientist so I’d probably understand just fine. The model should exclude outlier times that are several standard deviations above or below an athlete’s median/mean performance.
I get if someone runs ~30 seconds slower for an 8k because they were pacing it is hard to identify, but pretty easy to see that a 5k 3 minutes slower than a typical performance isn’t indicative of current fitness.
The model excludes outliers by only using the top two performances (and sometimes track/previous seasons). Abad race will be included until it is displaced by a better one, but the variance should account for this (they get put in the system as a wild-card). Believe it or not, some people DO show up to a cross country season out of shape by 3 minutes. Large-scale tempoing also occasionally creates outliers in the other direction (for the people who actually raced), so relying on a runner's best performance doesn't always work either.
My old method would have removed the slow race as it did some more complicated things with Gaussian mixtures. However, I opted to simplify the weighting because I was tired of explaining why borderline cases were included or excluded. People prefer transparency.
MVP - Bati, no surprise here, but he seems to be at a different level now. I'm eager to see if he can break Patzka's course record at St. Olaf. Our coach thinks that course runs about 40 seconds slower than Carleton, so it will take a big run.
Rookie of the Year - This is a toss up between little Ihrke and Hootie Hage, but Ihrke won the head to head matchup. It doesn't appear any other freshmen will be in the conversation unless one of the Carleton runners has a better latter half of the season.
Coach of the Year - Kurza from St. John's. Many have talked about Schofer, but the Scots will have to perform better than last week versus MIAC competition to get the hardware.
Most Improved - Parker Max emerging as a scorer for the Oles wasn't something I'd predict before the season. Kaluza also merits conversation for this.
5 things I'm eager to watch the rest of the season -
1. Will Carleton get healthy and be the team posters hyped to start the season?
2. Does Macalester have the depth to hold off a surging St. John's?
3. Traditionally a team to peak at the MIAC's, will the Johnnies be able to shock the Oles on their home course?
4. Out of Region meets - with many teams going out of Region next weekend, can the MIAC earn some respect from other Regions?
5. Which Carl will resume Bowman's hilarious habit of releasing air from Power's tires when they pass his house? My vote is Lyness, but perhaps a freshman can make that an annual tradition!
6. A bonus for the anti-Power crowd - will noted Power hater Devin Monson fly Power's illegitimate and unacknowledged child to the MIAC championship in hopes of causing enough chaos for the Oles to not win and deny Power another coach of the year award?
Breaking news - rumors of Power’s questionable coaching and methodology led Coach Phil Lundin to return to Northfield to supervise practice. This will either boost the Oles performances or send them spiraling as they realize how poor their daily coaching is. Hopefully the Hall of Fame Coach can overcome the ego of the current coach and return the team to glory.